Syria and the financial crisis: Prospects for reform?

Middle East Policy

Volumn 16, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 106-115

  Marshall, Shana ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 67651049343     PISSN: 10611924     EISSN: 14754967     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4967.2009.00394.x     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. "Middle East: Syria: Cabinet Shakeup Focuses on Economy," The New York Times, December 14, 2001, http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/14/ world/world-briefing-middle-east-syria-cabinet-shakeup-focuses-on-economy.html? fta=y. Accessed on March 30, 2009.
2. Al Thawra, September 22, 2008.
3. Tariq Alhomayed, "What's the Point of a Finance Ministry?" Al Sharq Al Awsat, September 23, 2008, http://www.asharqalawsat.com/ english/news.asp?section=2&id=14156.
4. Hussein recently characterized 2009 as a "very difficult year" for the Syrian economy, reversing his earlier course that focused on rising growth rates forecast by previous IMF reports. See "Syrian Economy Faces 'Very Difficult Year,'" Daily Star, http://www.dailystar.com.1b/ article.asp?edition-id= 10&categ-id=3& article-id=99228. Accessed March 1, 2009.
5. Hussein continues to downplay bad news. In a 2008 interview with Forward Magazine, he dismissed IMF estimates of 15 percent inflation for 2008, instead focusing on earlier IMF estimates that quoted a much lower number. In the face of mounting criticism of the disconnect between the government's official numbers and observed reality, Hussein has adopted a more pragmatic approach, conceding that 2009 will be a "very difficult year" for most sectors of the Syrian economy. See note 4.
6. "Maybe This Time for the Damascus Stock Exchange," Forward Magazine, September 2008. Plans for a stock market in Damascus actually date back to 2006. Its opening was delayed several times by claims of insufficient technology and a lack of human resources necessary for operating the exchange.
7. Jihad Yazigi, "Banking Sector Growth Slows Down," The Syria Report Newsletter, November 10, 2008, www.syria-report.com. Available through subscription only.
8. Productive investments, in contrast to speculative and commercial ones, are the most likely to suffer, due to loss of infrastructure and brain drain, during periods of instability and conflict. For an example from Lebanon during the civil war, see Fawwaz Traboulsi, "The War Order: 1983-1990."
9. Interview by the author, November 26, 2008.
10. Doing Business in the Arab World in 2009: Comparing Regulation, in 20 Economies (World Bank and the International Finance Corporation, 2008), www.doingbusiness.org/documents/ DB2009-ArabWorld.pdf. Accessed on January 30, 2009.
11. "U.S.-Syrian Trade Hits 16-year High," Syria Today, March 2009, Issue No. 47. http://www.syria-today.com/index.php?option=com- content&view=article&id=585:us-syrian-trade-hits-16-year-high&catid= 32:business-news&Itemid=45. Accessed March 30, 2009.
12. See also, "Syria Launches Long-Awaited Stock Exchange As Part of Moves to Liberalize Economy," Agence France Presse (AFP), March 11, 2009.
13. Jihad Yazigi, "French Delegation to Seek Business Deals in Syria," The Syria Report Newsletter, December 1, 2008, www.syria-report.com. Available through subscription only.
14. Al Nahar, January 30, 1997.
15. Cited in Eyal Zisser and Paul Rivlin, Syria: Domestic Political, Stress and Globalization, Data and Analysis Series (Moshe Dayan Center, 1999), p. 9.
16. Bassam Haddad, "The Formation and Development of Economic Networks in Syria," In Networks of Privilege in the Middle East: The Politics of Economic Reform Revisited, Steven Heydemann ed. (Palgrave Macmillan, 2004).
17. Doing Business Index: 2009 (International Finance Corporation, 2009), http://www.doingbusiness.org/EconomyRankings/.
18. Doing Business in the Arab World in 2009: Comparing Regulation in 20 Economies, op.cit.
19. Obaida Hamad, "Taming the Beast," Syria Today, November 11, 2008.
20. Ibid.
21. 2008 Corruption Perception Index, Transparency International, http://www.transparency.org/newsjroom/in-focus/2008/cpi2008. Accessed on September 23, 2008.
22. "Corruption in Syria on the Rise," Institute for War and Peace Reporting, October 18, 2008, http://www.iwpr.net/?p=syr&s=f&o= 347252&apc-state=henh. Accessed on October 30, 2008.
23. The Arab Free Trade Area agreement was signed in 1998, with a ten-year schedule for full implementation, making it fully operational by 2008. The language of the original agreement can be found at http://www.bilaterals.org/ article.php 3?id-article=2309.
24. Jihad Yazigi, "Kouefati Goes Bankrupt," The Syria Report Newsletter, October 20, 2008, www.syria-report.com. Available through subscription only.
25. Jihad Yazigi, "Government to Close Down Industrial Plants and Lease Land to Develop Tourism Projects," The Syria Repon Newsletter, October 27, 2008, www.syria-report.com. Available through subscription only.
26. Dardari, in interviews with Western media, has conceded that state figures for unemployment and other indicators are off by a figure of roughly 50 percent. Hussein is likely to defend more conservative estimates. See Stephen Starr, "Syria's Economy Stumbling in the Right Direction," Middle East Times, March 25, 2009, http://www.metimes.com/Business/2009/03/25/ syrias-economy-stumbling-in-the-right-direction/2994/.
27. See also Adnan Abdukazzaq, "Hussein: Syria Suffers from Diminishing Revenues," Forward Magazine, May 29, 2008, http://www.fwmagazine .com/content/hussein-syria-suffers-diminishing-revenues. Accessed April 1, 2009.
28. Robert D. Kaplan, "Syria's Identity Crisis," Atlantic Monthly, February 1993.
29. Ibrahim Elbadawi and Samir Makdisi, "Democracy and Development in the Arab World," Lecture and Working Paper Series No. 2 (American University of Beirut Institute of Financial Economics, 2005).