Forensic seismology and the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Volumn 37, Issue , 2009, Pages 209-236

  Bowers, David ^a   Selby, Neil D ^a  

^a AWE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Earthquake source; Global seismology; International Monitoring System; Seismic discrimination methods; Underground explosion source

Indexed keywords

COMPLEMENTARY METHODS; COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR-TEST-BAN TREATY; DEPTH DETERMINATION; EARTHQUAKE SOURCE; GEOLOGICAL MEDIA; GLOBAL SEISMOLOGY; HIGH FREQUENCY HF; INTERNATIONAL MONITORING SYSTEM; MODEL-BASED METHOD; SEISMIC DISCRIMINATION METHODS; SEISMIC SOURCE; SURFACE-WAVE;

EARTHQUAKES; EXPLOSIVES;

UNDERGROUND EXPLOSIONS;

EARTHQUAKE; FORENSIC SCIENCE; MONITORING SYSTEM; SEISMOLOGY; SOURCE PARAMETERS; TESTING METHOD;

EID: 67651012128     PISSN: 00846597     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1146/annurev.earth.36.031207.124143     Document Type: Review

References (117)

1. Albright D, Gay C, Pabian F. 1999. New details emerge on Pakistan's first nuclear test site. Earth Obs. Mag. Jan. 7:No. 12
2. Anderson DN, Fagan DK, Tinker MA, Kraft GD, Hutchenson KD. 2007. A mathematical statistics formulation of the teleseismic explosion identification problem with multiple discriminants. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 97:1730-41
3. Anderson DN, Taylor SR. 2002. Application of regularized discrimination analysis to regional seismic event identification. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92:1078-90
4. Barker B, Clark M, Davis P, Fisk M, Hedlin M, et al. 1998. Monitoring nuclear tests. Science 281:1967-68
5. Barrientos S, Haslinger F, Astiz L, Bereza S, Given H, et al. 2001. Seismological monitoring of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Kerntechnik 66:82-89
6. BBC. 2004a. Rumours linger over N Korea blast. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3652157.stm (Accessed October 25, 2008)
7. BBC. 2004b. UK demands N Korea explain blast. http://news.bbc.co. uk/1/hi/uk politics/3648988.stm (Accessed October 25, 2008)
8. Bennett TJ, McLaughlin KL. 1997. Seismic characteristics and mechanisms of rockbursts for use in seismic discrimination. See Gibowicz & Lasocki 1997, pp. 61-66
9. Blandford RR. 1977. Discrimination between earthquakes and underground explosions. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 5:111-22
10. Blandford RR. 1981. Seismic discrimination problems at regional distances. See Husebye & Mykkeltveit 1981, pp. 695-740
11. b performance. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 96:678-96
12. Bottone S, Fisk MD, McCartor GD. 2002. Regional seismic-event characterization using a Bayesian formulation of simple kriging. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92:2277-96
13. Bowers D. 1997. The October 30, 1994 seismic disturbance in South Africa: earthquake or large rock burst? J. Geophys. Res. 102:9843-57
14. Bowers D. 2002. Was the 16 August 1997 seismic disturbance near Novaya Zemlya an earthquake? Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92:2400-9
15. Bowers D, Douglas A. 1997. Characterisation of large mine tremors using P observed at teleseismic distances. See Gibowicz & Lasocki 1997, pp. 55-60
16. b - a study using aftershocks in the 1976 Gazli sequence. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 88:523-30
17. Bowers D, Douglas A, Selby ND, Marshall PD, Porter D, et al. 2002. Seismological identification of the 1998 May 28 Pakistan nuclear test. Geophys. J. Int. 150:153-61
18. Bowers D, Marshall PD, Douglas A. 2001. The level of deterrence provided by data from the SPITS seismometer array to possible violations of the Comprehensive Test Ban in the Novaya Zemlya region. Geophys. J. Int. 146:425-38
19. Bowers D, Pearce RG, Douglas A. 2000. Using regional geophysical databases to facilitate the identification of surface reflections on P-seismograms. Geophys. J. Int. 142:915-24
20. Bowers D, Walter WR. 2002. Discriminating between large mine collapses and explosions using teleseismic P waves. Pure Appl. Geophys. 159:803-30
21. Bratt SR. 2001. The International Data Centre of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: vision and progress. Kerntechnik 66:134-42
22. Chosun. 2004a. Ryongchon explosion eight times as great as North claims. http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200405/200405160017.html (Accessed October 25, 2008)
23. Chosun. 2004b. Signs indicate no explosion occurred in N. Korea's Kim Hyong-jik County. http://english.chosun. com/w21data/html/news/200409/ 200409170025.html (Accessed October 25, 2008)
24. Christie DR, Vivas Veloso JA, Campus P, Bell M, Hoffmann T, et al. 2001. Detection of atmospheric nuclear explosions: the infrasound component of the International Monitoring System. Kerntechnik 66:96-101
25. CTBTO Prep. Comm. 2007. North Korea: a real test for the CTBT verification system? CTBTO Spectr. 9:24, 28
26. Denny MD, Johnson LR. 1991. The explosion seismic source function: Models and scaling laws reviewed. See Taylor et al. 1991, pp. 1-24 Douglas A. 1981. Seismic source identification: a review of past and present research efforts. See Husebye & Mykkeltveit 1981, pp. 1-48 Douglas A. 1997. Bandpass filtering to reduce noise on seismograms: Is there a better way? Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 87:770-77
27. Douglas A. 2007. Forensic seismology revisited. Surv. Geophys. 28:1-31
28. Douglas A, Bowers D, Marshall PD, Young JB, Porter D, et al. 1999. Putting nuclear-test monitoring to the test. Nature 398:474-75
29. Douglas A, Bowers D, Young JB. 1997. On the onset of P seismograms. Geophys. J. Int. 129:681-90
30. Douglas A, Hudson JA, Blamey C. 1972. A quantitative evaluation of seismic signals at teleseismic distances - III. Computed P and Rayleigh wave seismograms. Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 28:385-410
31. Douglas A, Hudson JA, Kembhavi VK. 1971a. The analysis of surface wave spectra using a reciprocity theorem for surface waves. Geophys J. R. Astron. Soc. 23:207-23
32. Douglas A, Hudson JA, Kembhavi VK. 1971b. The relative excitation of seismic surface and body waves by point sources. Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 23:451-60
33. Douglas A, Selby ND, Bowers D. 2002. Seismic magnitude and yield for the Indian nuclear test of 11 May 1998. Curr. Sci. 83:989-92
34. Ekström G, Richards PG. 1994. Empirical measurements of tectonic moment release in nuclear explosions from teleseismic surface waves and body waves. Geophys. J. Int. 117:120-40
35. Evernden JF. 1998. Estimation of yields of underground explosions with emphasis on recent Indian and Pakistani explosions. Phys. Soc. 27:10-11
36. Fan G-W, Lay T, Bottone S. 2002. Path corrections for source discriminants: a case study at two International Monitoring System stations. Pure Appl. Geophys. 159:651-78
37. Fisk MD. 2006. Source spectral modeling of regional P/S discriminants at nuclear test sites in China and the former Soviet Union. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 96:2348-67
38. Fisk MD. 2007. Corner frequency scaling of regional seismic phases for underground nuclear explosions at the Nevada Test Site. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 97:977-88
39. Fisk MD, Gray HL, McCartor GD. 1996. Regional discrimination without transporting thresholds. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 86:1545-58
40. Fisk MD, Jepsen D, Murphy JR. 2002. Experimental seismic event-screening criteria at the Prototype International Data Centre. Pure Appl. Geophys. 159:865-88
41. Fox BD, Woodhouse JH, Selby ND. 2005. Source depth determination in China using intermediate-period fundamental mode surface waves. EOS Trans. AGU Fall Meet. Suppl. 86(52) (Abstr. S51B-1011)
42. Gibowicz SJ, Lasocki S, eds. 1997. Rockbursts and Seismicity in Mines. Rotterdam: Balkema. 437 pp.
43. Granville JP, Kim W-Y, Richards PG. 2002. An assessment of seismic body-wave magnitudes published by the prototype International Data Centre. Seism. Res. Lett. 73:893-906
44. b scales. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 95:1809-24
45. Hartse HE. 1998. The 16 August 1997 Novaya Zemlya seismic event as viewed from GSN stations KEV and KBS. Seism. Res. Lett. 69:206-15
46. Herrin E, Goforth T. 1986. Phase analysis of Rayleigh waves from the Shagan River test site in the USSR. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 76:1739-54
47. Heyburn R, Bowers D. 2008. Earthquake depth estimation using the F trace and associated probability. Geophys. J. Int. 98:18-35
48. Holzer TL, Fletcher JB, Fuis GS, Ryberg T, Brocher TM, Dietel CM. 1996. Seismograms offer insight into
49. Oklahoma City bombing. EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 77:393, 398-99
50. Husebye ES, Dainty AM, eds. 1996. Monitoring a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. London: Kluwer. 836 pp.
51. Husebye ES, Mykkeltveit S, eds. 1981. Identification of Seismic Sources - Earthquake or Underground Explosion. Holland: Reidel. 876 pp.
52. Jacob AWB, Willmore PL. 1972. Teleseismic P waves from a 10 ton explosion. Nature 236:305-6
53. Jenkins RD, Sereno TJ. 2001. Calibration of regional S/P amplitude-ratio discriminants. Pure Appl. Geophys. 158:1279-300
54. Karhu P, Clawson R. 2001. Radionuclide laboratories supporting the network of radionuclide stations in verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Kerntechnik 66:126-28
55. KCNA. 2004. Report on explosion at Ryongchon railway station. http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2004/200404/news04/24.htm#1 (Accessed October 25, 2008)
56. KCNA. 2006. DPRK successfully conducts underground nuclear test. http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2006/200610/news10/10.htm#1 (Accessed October 25, 2008)
57. Khristoforov B. 1996. About the control of the underwater and above water nuclear explosions by hydroacoustic methods. Tech. Rep. SPC-95-4049. Russ. Acad. Sci., Moscow
58. Kim W-Y, Aharonian V, Lerner-Lam L, Richards PG. 1997. Discrimination of earthquakes and explosions in Southern Russia using regional high-frequency three-component data from the IRIS/JSP Caucasus network. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 87:569-88
59. Kim W-Y, Richards PG. 2007. North Korean nuclear test: seismic discrimination at low yield. EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 88:158, 161
60. Kim W-Y, Sykes LR, Armitage JH, Xie JK, Jacob KH, et al. 2001. Seismic waves generated by aircraft impacts and building collapses at World Trade Center, New York City. EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 82:565, 570-71
61. Koper KD, Wallace TC, Hollnack D. 1999. Seismic analysis of the 7 August 1998 truck bomb blast at the American embassy in Nairobi, Kenya. Seism. Res. Lett. 70:512-21
62. Koper KD, Wallace TC, Reinke RE, Leverette JA. 2002. Empirical scaling laws for truck bomb explosions based on seismic and acoustic data. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92:527-42
63. Koper KD, Wallace TC, Taylor SR, Hartse HE. 2001. Forensic seismology and the sinking of the Kursk. EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 82:37, 45-46
64. Kradolfer U. 2000. Waves4U: waveform availability through AutoDRM's. Seism. Res. Lett. 71:79-82
65. Lawrence M, Galindo M, Grenard P, Newton J. 2001. Hydroacoustic monitoring system for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Kerntechnik 66:90-95
66. b. Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 91:1127-33
67. g spectral ratios as criteria for distinguishing between earthquakes and explosions: a theoretical study. Geophys. J. 93:137-47
68. s scale. Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 28:431-58
69. Marshall PD, Rozgonova D, Weiss W. 2001. Testing times: the road to a Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Kerntechnik 66:80-81
70. Marshall PD, Springer DL, Rodean HC. 1979. Magnitude corrections for attenuation in the upper mantle. Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 57:609-38
71. Matthews M, Schulze J. 2001. The radionuclide monitoring system of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation: from sample to product. Kerntechnik 66:102-11
72. McCormack DA. 2003. Using seismic data in air crash investigations. CTBTO Spectr. 2:1, 16
73. Mueller RA, Murphy JR. 1971. Seismic characterization of underground nuclear detonations. Part I. Seismic scaling law of underground nuclear detonations. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 61:1675-92
74. Murphy JR. 1996. Types of seismic event and their source descriptions. See Husebye & Dainty 1996, pp. 225-45
75. Murphy JR, Barker BW. 2006. Improved focal-depth determination through automated identification of the seismic depth phases pP and sP. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 96:1213-29
76. Myers SC, Wagoner J, Larsen S, Rodgers A, Mayeda K, et al. 2003. Simulation of regional explosion S-phases (SiRES) project. Proc. 2003 Seism. Res. Rev., Tucson, AZ, Tech. Rep. UCRL-JC-153604. pp. 117-24. Livermore, CA: Lawrence Livermore Natl. Lab.
77. g scattering as a source for explosion S waves: regional and local recordings of the 1997 Kazakhstan depth of burial experiment. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 89:544-49
78. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2002. Technical issues related to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Washington, DC: Natl. Acad. Press. 84 pp.
79. Patton HJ. 1991. Seismic moment estimation and the scaling of the long-period explosion source spectrum. See Taylor et al. 1991, pp. 171-83
80. Patton HJ. 1998. Bias in the centroid moment tensor for central Asian earthquakes: evidence from regional surface wave data. J. Geophys. Res. 103:26963-74
81. Pearce RG. 1980. Fault plane solutions using relative amplitudes of P and surface reflections: further studies. Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 60:459-87
82. s due to inadequate distance corrections. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 88:43-61
83. Richards PG, Kim W.-Y. 1997. Testing the nuclear test-ban treaty. Nature 389:781-82
84. Richards PG, Zavales J. 1996. Seismological methods for monitoring a CTBT: the technical issues arising in early negotiations. See Husebye & Dainty 1996, pp. 53-81
85. Ringdal F, Kremenetskaya E, Asming V. 2001. Observed characteristics of regional seismic phases and implications for P/S discrimination in the European Arctic. Pure Appl. Geophys. 159:701-19
86. Ringdal F, Kværna T, Paulsen B. 2000. Seismic events in the Barents Sea at and near the site of the Kursk submarine accident on 12 August 2000. NORSAR Sci. Rep. 1-2000/1002, Norway, pp. 77-88
87. Rodgers AJ, Walter WR. 2002. Seismic discrimination of the May 11, 1998 Indian nuclear test with short-period regional data from station NIL (Nilore, Pakistan). Pure Appl. Geophys. 159:679-700
88. Rodgers AJ, Walter WR, Bredbeck TM. 1999a. Complete regional waveform modelling to estimate seismic velocity structure and source parameters for CTBT monitoring. Proc. 21st Seism. Res. Symp., Las Vegas, NV, Tech. Rep. LA-UR-99-4700. pp. 226-33. Los Alamos, NM: Los Alamos Natl. Lab.
89. Rodgers AJ, Walter WR, Schultz CA, Myers SC, Lay T. 1999b. A comparison of methodologies for representing path effects on regional P/S discriminants. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 89:394-408
90. Russell D. 2006. Development of a time-domain, variable-period surface wave magnitude measurement procedure for application at regional and teleseismic distances, part I: theory. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 96:665-77
91. Rygg E. 1979. Anomalous surface waves from underground explosions. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 69:1995-2002
92. Schultz CA, Myers SC, Hipp J, Young CJ. 1998. Nonstationary Bayesian kriging: a predictive technique to generate spatial corrections for seismic detection, location, and identification. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 88:1275-88
93. Schweitzer J. 2002. Some results derived from the seismic signals of the accident of the Russian submarine Kursk. NORSAR Sci. Rep. 1-2002, Norway, pp. 115-21
94. Sebe O, Bard P-Y, Guilbert J. 2005. Single station estimation of seismic source time function from coda waves: The Kursk disaster. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32:L14308
95. Selby ND. 2001. Association of Rayleigh waves using back-azimuth measurements: application to test ban verification. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 91:580-93
96. Selby ND, Bowers D. 2007. Implications of the 9 October 2006 North Korean nuclear test for event screening. Seism. Res. Lett. 78:253
97. Selby ND, Bowers D, Douglas A, Heyburn R, Porter D. 2005. Seismic discrimination in Southern Xinjiang: The 13 March 2003 Lop Nor earthquake. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 95:197-211
98. s, using a global network. Geophys. J. Int. 155:379-90
99. Selby ND, Walter WR, Bowers D. 2004. Tectonic release triggered by the 11 May 1998 Indian nuclear tests. Seism. Res. Lett. 74:252
100. Sikka SK, Roy F, Nair GJ. 2001. Yield estimation of Indian nuclear tests of 1998. Curr. Sci. 81:885-87
101. Stevens JL, Baker GE, Xu H. 2006. The physical basis of the explosion source and generation of regional seismic phases. Proc. 28th Seism. Res. Rev., Orlando, Fla., Tech. Rep. LA-UR-06-5471. pp. 681-92. Los Alamos, NM: Los Alamos Natl. Lab.
102. s and variable frequency magnitude methods for earthquake/explosion discrimination. J. Geophys. Res. 90:3009-20
103. Stevens JL, McLaughlin KL. 2001. Optimization of surface wave identification and measurement. Pure Appl. Geophys. 158:1547-82
104. Stevens JL, Murphy JR. 2002. Yield estimation from surface-wave amplitudes. Pure Appl. Geophys. 158:2227-51
105. Sykes L. 2002. Four decades of progress in seismic identification help verify the CTBT. EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 83:497, 500
106. Takano M, Krioutchenkov V. 2001. Technical methods employed for the On-Site Inspection. Kerntechnik 66:143-46
107. Taylor SR, Patton HJ, Richards PG, eds. 1991. Explosion Source Phenomenology. Geophys. Monogr. 65. Washington, DC: Ser. Am. Geophys. Union. 268 pp.
108. Taylor SR, Velasco AA, Hartse HE, Phillips WS, Walter WR, et al. 2002. Amplitude corrections for regional seismic discriminants. Pure Appl. Geophys. 159:623-50
109. Toksöz MN, Kehrer HH. 1972. Tectonic release by underground nuclear explosions and its effect on seismic discrimination. Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 31:141-61
110. Tsai Y-B, Aki K. 1970. Precise focal depth determination from amplitude spectra of surface waves. J. Geophys. Res. 75:5729-43
111. van der Vink GE, Park J. 1994. Nuclear test ban monitoring: new requirements, new resources. Science 263:634-35
112. Walter WR, Matzel E, Pasyanos ME, Harris DB, Gok R, et al. 2007. Empirical observations of earthquake-explosion discrimination using P/S ratios and implications for the sources of explosion S-waves. Proc. 29th Monit. Res. Rev., Denver, Colo., Tech. Rep. LA-UR-07-5613. pp. 684-93. Los Alamos, NM: Los Alamos Natl. Lab.
113. Walter WR, Mayeda KM, Patton HJ. 1995. Phase and spectral ratio discrimination between NTS earthquakes and explosions. Part I: empirical observations. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 85:1050-67
114. Walter WR, Taylor SR. 2001. A revised magnitude and distance amplitude correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants: Theory and testing at NTS. Tech. Rep. UCRL-ID-146882. Lawrence Livermore Natl. Lab., Livermore, CA
115. g discriminants. J. Geophys. Res. 104:941-54
116. Zaslavsky-Paltiel I, Steinberg DM. 2008. Comparison of methods for estimating station magnitude corrections for improved seismologic monitoring of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 97:1-17
117. Zhang J, Lay T, Zaslow J, Walter WR. 2002. Source effects on regional seismic discriminant measurements. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 91:2926-45