Ireland says no (again): The 12 june 2008 referendum on the lisbon treaty

Parliamentary Affairs

Volumn 62, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 258-277

  O'Brennan, John ^a  

^a NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF IRELAND   (Ireland)

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EID: 67651002879     PISSN: 00312290     EISSN: 14602482     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/pa/gsp005     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. I wish to thank the anonymous referees for their advice and directions. I also wish to thank the following for their comments on earlier versions of this paper: Joseph Burke, Patricia Conlan, Katy Hayward, Francis Jacobs, Peadar Kirby, Mary C. Murphy, Sean Ó'Riain, Brid Quinn and Dolores Taaffe.
2. See J. O'Brennan, 'Ireland's Return to 'Normal' EU Voting Patterns: The 2002 Nice Treaty Referendum', European Political Science, 2(2), Spring 2003, 5-14; K. Hayward, 'If at First you don't Succeed . . . .': the Second Referendum on the Treaty of Nice, 2002', Irish Political Studies, 18(1), 120-32.
3. European Commission, 'Post-referendum survey in Ireland', Flash Eurobarometer 245, 18 June 2008; Millward Brown IMS, 'Post Lisbon Treaty Referendum Research Findings', September 2008. The latter body of research was commissioned by the Irish Government in the wake of the failure of the 12 June referendum. In addition to a national poll of more than 2000 voters it also included the findings from a series of focus groups held in July and August 2008.
4. This was in stark contrast to the ratification strategies pursued by member states for the CT when at least ten member states planned to ratify the Constitution by referendum rather than statute. The French and Dutch rejections of the CT however put paid to the other planned referendums including Ireland's.
5. On the significance of the Crotty Judgment see J. Temple Lang, The Irish Court Case which delayed the Single European Act (1987), 24 CMLRev, 709-18.
6. R. Fanning, 'Lisbon vote is not democracy but an exercise in buck-passing', The Irish Times, 22 April 2008.
7. R. Barrington, 'Was holding referendum on Lisbon Treaty really necessary? The Irish Times, 11 July 2008.
8. G. Barrett, 'Lisbon vote is not buck-passing by politicians', The Irish Times, 24 April 2008.
9. M. Holmes (ed.), 'Opposition to European Integration in Ireland' in Ireland and the European Union Post-Nice, Manchester University Press, 2005. See also B. Laffan and J. O'Mahony, 'Managing Europe' in B. Laffan and J. O'Mahony (eds), Ireland and the European Union, Palgrave, 2008, pp.56-80.
10. In the 2007 General Election in the Republic Fianna Fáil emerged with the largest number of seats in the Dáil with 77 seats (41.6% of the vote), a loss of four from the 2002 election. Fine Gael won 51 seats (27.3% of the vote), an increase of 20 seats, and Labour won 20 seats (10.1% of the vote), unchanged from 2002. The Progressive Democrats were decimated at the polls winning just two seats (2.7% of the vote) for a loss of six seats from 2002.
11. M. Holmes, op.cit.
12. Ibid.
13. See J. O'Brennan, op.cit., note 2.
14. P. MacLochlainn, 'Does Lisbon Treaty Enhance Democracy? No', The Irish Times, 4 June 2008.
15. See European Council, Presidency Conclusions, Doc. 17271/08, Brussels, 12 December 2008, note I.2
16. B. Laffan, 'Astute Irish diplomats are expert at playing the EU system', The Irish Times, 29 May 2008.
17. See B. Laffan and J. O'Mahony, 'Irish Foreign Policy in the EU' in B. Laffan and J. O'Mahony (eds), Ireland and the European Union, op. cit., pp. 175-96; N. Rees, 'Europe and Ireland's Changing Security Policy' in M. Holmes (ed.), Ireland and the European Union: Nice, Enlargement and the Future of Europe, op. cit., note 9, pp. 55-74; B. Tonra, Global Citizen and European Republic: Irish Foreign Policy in Transition, Manchester University Press, 2006.
18. See the three article series by Karen Devine: 'Neither Friend nor Foe: the Irish Position', The Irish Times, 25 November 2008; 'Tug of War between Public and Political Elites', The Irish Times, 26 November 2008 and ''Protecting Neutrality in a Militarised EU', The Irish Times, 27 November 2008. Devine's interpretation of the nature of EU foreign and security policy attracted fierce criticism from a number of scholars. See, notably, P. Keatinge, P. O'Broin and B. Tonra, 'Lisbon will not Override Irish Defence Policy', The Irish Times, 6 December 2008. See also Karen Devine's response to her critics: 'Lisbon 'alliance' is a Step Too Far', The Irish Times, 24 December 2008.
19. R. Cole, 'If you want to support the arms trade vote Yes', The Irish Times, 17 May 2008.
20. Millward Brown IMS, op. cit., p. 15.
21. 'Ganley says tax issue is central to Libertas campaign', The Irish Times, 3 June 2008; D. Ganley, 'Is the Lisbon Treaty good for business? No', The Irish Times, 6 June 2008.
22. The Irish economy contracted by 1.5% in the first quarter of 2008 and by up to 2.5% over the entire year. Other indicators of the depth of the Irish recession can also be cited: in 2008 Ireland experienced the largest ever budget deficit in the history of the state and the single largest shortfall in tax revenue. Unemployment increased to 8% by the end of 2008, up from 4.5% at the end of 2007. See: 'Government Records Largest Ever Deficit', The Irish Times, 5 January 2009.
23. R. Cole, op. cit.
24. See The Irish Times, 6 June 2008.
25. 'Treaty rejected by 110 000 votes in poll of over 1.6 million people', The Irish Times, 14 June 2008.
26. European Commission, 'Post-referendum Survey in Ireland', Flash Eurobarometer 245, 18 June 2008.
27. G. Ivaldi, 'Beyond France's 2005 Referendum on the European Constitutional Treaty: Second-Order Models, Anti-Establishment Attitudes and the End of the Alternative European Utopia', West European Politics, 29(1), 59.
28. Millward Brown IMS, op. cit., p. 1.
29. R. Sinnott, 'Voters' confidence in their knowledge of treaty is crucial', The Irish Times, 20 May 2008.
30. Eurobarometer 245, op. cit., p.
31. R. Sinnott, 'Deeper look at poll illuminates complex reasons for result', The Irish Times, 14 June 2008.
32. Eurobarometer, op. cit., p. 6; Millward Brown IMS, op. cit., p. 1.
33. G. Ivaldi, op. cit., p. 61.
34. R. Sinnott, op. cit. note 19.
35. Eurobarometer 245, op. cit., p. 6.
36. R. Sinnott, op. cit. note 21
37. J. Coakley, 'Irish public opinion and the new Europe' in M. Holmes (ed.), Ireland and the Europea Union Post-Nice, Manchester University Press, 2005, p.107.
38. R. Sinnott, op. cit. note 21.
39. Ireland has received net receipts of approximately €40 billion since 1973 h. In 2007 Ireland received a net amount of €500 million from the EU budget. The expectation is that Ireland will become a net contributor to the EU budget by 2012. See 'Ireland to contribute €500 m per year to EU by 2013', The Irish Times, 22 February 2008.
40. Eurobarometer 245, op. cit., p. 3.
41. Millward Brown IMS, op. cit., p. 2.
42. Ibid., p. 8.
43. See 'Loyalty to party did not sway voters to back treaty', The Irish Times, 26 June 2008.
44. G. Ivaldi, op. cit., p. 52.
45. Quoted in The Irish Times, 19 May 2008.
46. Quoted in 'Cowen says he was not sniping at Labour, FG', The Irish Times, 27 May 2008.
47. Autumn 2008 saw the publication of a number of reports on Ireland's relationship with the European Union and recommendations as to how to move the Lisbon Treaty process forward. See, for example: G. Barrett, B. Laffan, R. Thom and B. Tonra, 'Ireland's future in Europe: Scenarios and Implications', Report Commissioned by the Oireachtas Sub-Committee on Ireland's Future in the European Union', UCD Dublin European Institute, 12 November 2008; J. O' Brennan, 'Ireland and the Lisbon Treaty: Quo Vadis? CEPS Policy Brief No.176, October 2008, Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels, http://shop.ceps.eu/ BookDetail.php?item-id=1741; Oireachtas Sub-Committee on Ireland's Future in the European Union, 'Ireland's Future in the European Union: Challenges, Issues and Options', Houses of the Oireachtas, Dublin, 27 November 2008, http://euaffairs.ie/sub-committee/ Sub-CommitteeReport.pdf.
48. The European Commission has recently produced a report documenting how the Irish media has become more Eurosceptic and tabloid in recent years. The 'changing media landscape' between 2002 and 2008 is identified as an important determinant of changes in public opinion which influenced the Lisbon referendum. See 'Irish media more Eurosceptic, warns EC report', The Irish Times, 2 September 2008.
49. See J. O'Brennan, 'Ireland's National Forum on Europe: Elite Deliberation meets Popular Participation', Journal of European Integration, 26(2), 2004, 167-82; J. O'Brennan, 'The National Forum on Europe' in M. Holmes (ed.), Ireland and the European Union Post-Nice, op. cit., pp. 114-32.