Assessing sedimentary records of paleohurricane activity using modeled hurricane climatology

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Volumn 9, Issue 9, 2008, Pages

  Woodruff, Jonathan D ^a   Donnelly, Jeffrey P ^b   Emanuel, Kerry ^a   Lane, Philip ^a  

^a MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^b WOODS HOLE OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTITUTION   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Holocene; Paleoclimate; Paleotempestology; Sedimentology; Tropical cyclones

Indexed keywords

EID: 67650952448     PISSN: 15252027     EISSN: 15252027     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2008GC002043     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Bove, M. C., et al. (1998), Effect of El Nino on US landfalling hurricanes, revisited, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79(11), 2477-2482, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2477:EOENOO>2.0.CO;2.
2. Demuth, J. L., et al. (2006), Improvement of advanced microwave sounding unit tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithms, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 45(11), 1573-1581, doi:10.1175/JAM2429.1. (Pubitemid 46040294)
3. Donnelly, J. P. (2005), Evidence of past intense tropical cyclones from backbarrier salt pond sediments: A case study from Isla de Culebrita, Puerto Rico, USA, J. Coastal Res., 142, 201-210.
4. Donnelly, J. P., and M. D. Bertness (2001), Rapid shoreward encroachment of salt marsh cordgrass in response to accelerated sea-level rise, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 98(25), 14,218-14,223, doi:10.1073/pnas.251209298. (Pubitemid 33121372)
5. Donnelly, J. P., and T. Webb (2004), Back-barrier sedimentary records of intense hurricane landfalls in the northeastern United States, in Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present and Future, edited by R. Murnane and K. B. Liu, pp. 58-95, Columbia Univ. Press, New York.
6. Donnelly, J. P., and J. D. Woodruff (2007), Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by El Nino and the West African monsoon, Nature, 447(7143), 465-468, doi:10.1038/nature05834. (Pubitemid 46816740)
7. Donnelly, J. P., et al. (2001a), 700 yr sedimentary record of intense hurricane landfalls in southern New England, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 113(6), 714-727, doi:10.1130/0016-7606(2001)113<0714:YSROIH>2.0.CO;2.
8. Donnelly, J. P., et al. (2001b), Sedimentary evidence of intense hurricane strikes from New Jersey, Geology, 29(7), 615-618, doi:10.1130/0091- 7613(2001)029<0615:SEOIHS>2.0. CO;2.
9. Donnelly, J. P., et al. (2004a), A backbarrier overwash record of intense storms from Brigantine, New Jersey, Mar. Geol., 210(1-4), 107-121, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2004.05.005. (Pubitemid 39151713)
10. Donnelly, J. P., et al. (2004b), Coupling instrumental and geological records of sea-level change: Evidence from southern New England of an increase in the rate of sea-level rise in the late 19th century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L05203, doi:10.1029/2003GL018933.
11. Elsner, J. B., and B. H. Bossak (2001), Bayesian analysis of US hurricane climate, J. Clim., 14(23), 4341-4350, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<4341: BAOUSH>2.0.CO;2.
12. Elsner, J. B., et al. (2001), Secular changes to the ENSO-US hurricane relationship, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28(21), 4123-4126, doi:10.1029/2001GL013669. (Pubitemid 33122464)
13. Elsner, J. B., et al. (2008), Comparison of hurricane return levels using historical and geological records, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 47(2), 368-374, doi:10.1175/2007JAMC1692.1.
14. Emanuel, K. et al. (2004), Environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity, J. Atmos. Sci., 61(7), 843-858, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2004) 061<0843:ECOTCI>2.0. CO;2.
15. Emanuel, K., et al. (2006), A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87(3), 299-314, doi:10.1175/BAMS-87-3-299.
16. Emanuel, K., et al. (2008), Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 89(3), 347-367, doi:10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347. (Pubitemid 351756668)
17. Frappier, A., et al. (2007a), Perspective: Coordinating paleoclimate research on tropical cyclones with hurricane-climate theory and modelling, Tellus Ser. A, 59(4), 529-537.
18. Frappier, A. B., et al. (2007b), Stalagmite stable isotope record of recent tropical cyclone events, Geology, 35(2), 111-114, doi:10.1130/G23145A.1. (Pubitemid 46243191)
19. Gehrels, W. R., et al. (2005), Onset of recent rapid sea-level rise in the western Atlantic Ocean, Quat. Sci. Rev., 24(18-19), 2083-2100, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.11.016. (Pubitemid 41188161)
20. Goldenberg, S. B., et al. (2001), The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications, Science, 293(5529), 474-479, doi:10.1126/science.1060040. (Pubitemid 32679071)
21. González, J. L., and T. E. Törnqvist (2006), Coastal Louisiana in crisis: Subsidence or sea level rise, Eos Trans. AGU, 87(45), 493, doi:10.1029/2006EO450001.
22. Gray, W. M. (1984), Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Nino and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences, Mon. Weather Rev., 112, 1649-1668, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1649:ASHFPI>2.0.CO;2.
23. Jelesnianski, C. P., et al. (1992), SLOSH: Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes, NOAA Tech. Rep. NWS 48, 71 pp., Natl. Weather Serv., Silver Spring, Md.
24. Kalnay, E. et al. (1996), The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77(3), 437-471, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437: TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.
25. Lambert, W. J., et al. (2008), Catastrophic hurricane history revealed by organic geochemical proxies in coastal lake sediments: A case study of Lake Shelby, Alabama (USA), J. Paleolimnol., 39(1), 117-131.
26. Lighty, R. G., et al. (1982), Acropora Palmata Reef Framework: A reliable indicator of sea level in the western Atlantic for the past 10000 years, Coral Reefs, 1(2), 125-130, doi:10.1007/BF00301694.
27. Liu, K. B., and M. L. Fearn (1993), Lake-sediment record of late Holocene hurricane activities from coastal Alabama, Geology, 21(9), 793-796, doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1993) 021<0793:LSROLH>2.3.CO;2.
28. Liu, K. B., and M. L. Fearn (2000), Reconstruction of prehistoric landfall frequencies of catastrophic hurricanes in northwestern Florida from lake sediment records, Quat. Res., 54(2), 238-245, doi:10.1006/qres.2000.2166. (Pubitemid 30792879)
29. Malmquist, D. L. (1997), Oxygen isotopes in cave stalagmites as a proxy record of past tropical cyclone activity, paper presented at 22nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Am. Meteorol. Soc., Fort Collins, Colo.
30. Mercado, A. (1994), On the use of NOAA's storm surge model, SLOSH, in managing coastal hazards-The experience in Puerto Rico, Nat. Hazards, 10(3), 235-246, doi:10.1007/BF00596144.
31. Miller, D. L., et al. (2006), Tree-ring isotope records of tropical cyclone activity, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 103(39), 14,294-14,297, doi:10.1073/pnas.0606549103. (Pubitemid 44484743)
32. Moy, C. M., et al. (2002), Variability of El Nino/Southern Oscillation activity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch, Nature, 420(6912), 162-165, doi:10.1038/nature01194.
33. Nguetsop, V. F., et al. (2004), Late Holocene climatic changes in west Africa, a high resolution diatom record from equatorial Cameroon, Quat. Sci. Rev., 23(5-6), 591-609, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.10.007. (Pubitemid 38231107)
34. Nott, J. (2004), Palaeotempestology: The study of and implications review article prehistoric tropical cyclones-A review for hazard assessment, Environ. Int., 30(3), 433-447, doi:10.1016/j.envint.2003.09.010. (Pubitemid 38232879)
35. Nott, J. and M. Hayne (2001), High frequency of 'supercyclones' along the Great Barrier Reef over the past 5000 years, Nature, 413(6855), 508-512, doi:10.1038/35097055.
36. Nott, J., et al. (2007), Greater frequency variability of landfalling tropical cyclones at centennial compared to seasonal and decadal scales, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 255(3-4), 367-372, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2006.12.023. (Pubitemid 46323332)
37. Nyberg, J., et al. (2002), A centennial-scale variability of tropical North Atlantic surface hydrography during the late Holocene, Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 183(1-2), 25-41, doi:10.1016/S0031-0182(01)00446-1. (Pubitemid 34689107)
38. Pielke, R. A., Jr., and C. N. Landsea (1999), La Nina, El Nino, and Atlantic hurricane damages in the United States, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80(10), 2027-2033, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<2027:LNAENO>2.0.CO;2.
39. Pielke, R. A., et al. (2008), Normalized hurricane damage in the United States: 1900-2005, Nat. Hazards Rev., 9(1), 29-42, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988 (2008)9:1(29).
40. Richey, J. N., et al. (2007), 1400 yr multiproxy record of climate variability from the northern Gulf of Mexico, Geology, 35(5), 423-426, doi:10.1130/G23507A.1. (Pubitemid 46746403)
41. Scileppi, E., and J. P. Donnelly (2007), Sedimentary evidence of hurricane strikes in western Long Island, New York, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 8, Q06011, doi:10.1029/2006GC001463.
42. Simpson, R. H., and H. Riehl (1981), The Hurricane and its Impact, Louisiana State Univ. Press, Baton Rouge, La.
43. Stockdon, H. F., et al. (2006), Empirical parameterization of setup, swash, and runup, Coastal Eng., 53, 573-588, doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.12. 005.
44. Tornqvist, T. E., et al. (2004), Deciphering Holocene sea-level history on the US Gulf Coast: A high-resolution record from the Mississippi Delta, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 116(7), 1026-1039, doi:10.1130/B2525478.1. (Pubitemid 39032675)
45. Woodruff, J. D., et al. (2008), Reconstructing relative flooding intensities responsible for hurricane induced deposits from Laguna Playa Grande, Vieques, Puerto Rico, Geology, 36(5), 391-394, doi:10.1130/G24731A.1. (Pubitemid 351903384)
46. Wright, C. W., et al. (2001), Hurricane directional wave spectrum spatial variation in the open ocean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 31(8), 2472-2488, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(2001) 031<2472:HDWSSV>2.0.CO;2.