Judgment elicitation process for multi-criteria decision-making in oil and gas industry

International Petroleum Technology Conference, IPTC 2008

Volumn 3, Issue , 2008, Pages 1794-1801

  Virine, Lev ^a  

^a SCHLUMBERGER   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DATA ANALYSIS; ELICITATION TECHNIQUES; EXPERT JUDGMENT; GEOLOGICAL UNCERTAINTY; MULTI CRITERIA DECISION MAKING; OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION; OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY; PETROLEUM COMPANIES;

DECISION MAKING; GAS INDUSTRY; GEOLOGICAL SURVEYS; LIQUEFIED PETROLEUM GAS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

PETROLEUM PROSPECTING;

EID: 67650562952     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: None     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (17)

1. Hawkins J.T., Coopersmith E.M. and Cunningham P.C.: "Improving Stochastic Evaluations Using Objective Data Analysis and Expert Interviewing Techniques," SPE Paper 77421, presented at the 2002 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, Texas, Sept. 29-Oct.2.
2. Capen, E.C.: "A Problem with Experts" paper SPE 30060 presented at the 1995 SPE Hydrocarbon and Economic Evaluation Symposium, Dallas, March 26-28
3. Rose, P.R: "Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty in Exploration: How Can We Improve?" AAPG Bulletin (January 1987), 71, No. 1, P 1-16. (Pubitemid 17509685)
4. Gilovich T., Griffin, D., Kahneman D.: "Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment", Cambridge University Press (2002)
5. Ayyub B. M: "Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks", CRC; 1 edition (2001)
6. Meyer M., Booker, J. "Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide (ASA-SIAM Series on Statistics and Applied Probability)", Society for Industrial Mathematics (2001)
7. Watson, P.C.: "On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task". Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 12: 129-140(1960).
8. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman.: "The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice". Science 211:453-458. (1981) (Pubitemid 11145313)
9. Slovic, P., B. Fischhoff, and S. Lichtenstein. "Facts versus fears: Understanding perceived risk. In Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases", eds. D. Kahneman, A. Tversky, and P. Slovic. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press (1982).
10. Samuelson, W., and Zeckhauser R.J.: "Status quo bias in decision making". Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 1:7-59 (1988).
11. Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman: "Belief in the law of small numbers". Psychological Bulletin 76:105-110. (1971).
12. Bascle, B.J., Nixson, I.D., and Ross, K.M.: "Atlas of Gulf of Mexico Gas and Oil Sands," OCS Report MMS 2001-086, New Orleans. (2001).
13. Rose, P.: "Risk Analysis and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures". AAPG Methods in Exploration Series, number 12. Tulsa, OK: American Association of Petroleum Geologists. (2001).
14. Goodwin, P., and Wright G.: "Decision Analysis for Management Judgment," 3rd ed. Chichester, West Sussex, England: John Wiley and Sons. (2004).
15. Virine, L. and Murphy D.: "Analysis of Multicriteria Decision-Making Methodologies for the Petroleum Industry, " Presented at the 2007 International Petroleum Technology Conference, Dubai, December 4-6, (2007).
16. Sniezek, J.A. "An examination of group process in judgment forecasting", International Journal of Forecasting 5:171-178. (1989)
17. Virine L. and Trumper M.: "Project Decisions: The Art and Science", Management Concepts, Vienna, VA. (2007).