Use of a derived distribution approach for flood prediction in poorly gauged basins: A case study in Italy

Advances in Water Resources

Volumn 32, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 1284-1296

  Bocchiola, D ^a   Rosso, R ^a  

^a POLITECNICO DI MILANO   (Italy)

Author keywords

Derived distribution; Flood prediction; Hydrological response; Regionalization; Soil abstraction; Storm scaling

Indexed keywords

ANTECEDENT MOISTURE; CRITICAL DURATION; CURVE NUMBERS; DATA AVAILABILITY; DEPTH DURATION FREQUENCY CURVES; DERIVED DISTRIBUTION; FLOOD PREDICTION; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE; INSTANTANEOUS UNIT HYDROGRAPH; PRECIPITATION DATA; PREDICTION IN UNGAUGED BASINS; REGIONALIZATION; RETURN PERIODS; SINGLE SITES; SOIL CONSERVATION SERVICE CURVE NUMBERS;

ABSTRACTING; CATCHMENTS; LAND USE; SOILS; STORMS;

SOIL CONSERVATION;

BASIN ANALYSIS; DESIGN; FLOOD FORECASTING; HYDROGRAPH; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE; PEAK FLOW; PREDICTION; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; STORMWATER;

EURASIA; EUROPE; ITALY; LIGURIA; MEDITERRANEAN SEA; SOUTHERN EUROPE; TYRRHENIAN SEA;

EID: 67650357503     PISSN: 03091708     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2009.05.005     Document Type: Article

References (81)

1. Adamowski K. Regional analysis of annual maximum and partial duration flood data by nonparametric and L-moment methods. J Hydrol 229 (2000) 219-231
2. Adom D.N., Bacchi B., Brath A., and Rosso R. On the geomorphoclimatic derivation of flood frequency (peak and volume) at the basin and regional scale. In: Kavvas M.L. (Ed). New directions for surface water modeling vol. 181 (1989), IAHS Publ. 165-176
3. Anselmo V., Galeati G., Palmieri S., Rossi U., and Todini E. Flood risk assessment using an integrated hydrological and hydraulic modelling approach: a case study. J Hydrol 175 (1996) 533-554
4. Arnaud P., and Lavabre J. Coupled rainfall model and discharge model for flood frequency estimation. Water Resour Res 38 6 (2002) 1075 10.1029/2001wr000474
5. Bandini A. Regimi pluviometrici in Italia [Pluviometric regimes in Italy], Il Servizio Idrografico Italiano, Ministero dei Lavori Pubblici, Roma; 1931 [in Italian].
6. Bayazit M., and Önöz B. Sampling variances of regional flood quantiles affected by inter site correlation. J Hydrol 291 1-2 (2004) 42-51
7. Blazkova S., and Beven K. Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation for a catchment treated as ungauged (with uncertainty). Water Resour Res 38 8 (2002) 1139 10.1029/2001wr000500
8. Bocchiola D, De Michele C. Data collection for the northern Italy case study. In: Rosso Renzo, editor. Framework, EC environment and climate research programme 1994-1998, ENV4_CT97_0529, Hydrological and hydrogeological risks, Partner 1, ANNEX 9; 2001.
9. Bocchiola D, De Michele C, Pecora S, Rosso R. Sul tempo di risposta dei bacini idrografici italiani [On the response time of Italian watersheds]. L'ACQUA, 1; 2003. p. 45-55 [in Italian, Abstract in English].
10. Bocchiola D., De Michele C., and Rosso R. Review of recent advances in index flood estimation. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 3 (2003) 283-296
11. Bocchiola D, De Michele C, Rosso R. L'applicazione della legge generalizzata del valore estremo GEV all'analisi regionale delle piene in Italia [Application of the generalized extreme values distribution GEV to regional analysis of floods in Italy]. L'ACQUA, 1; 2004. p. 43-62 [in Italian, Abstract in English].
12. Bocchiola D., and Rosso R. Real time flood forecasting at dams: a case study in italy. Int J Hydropower Dams 13 1 (2006) 92-99
13. Boni G., Ferraris L., Giannoni F., Roth G., and Rudari R. Flood probability analysis for ungauged watersheds by means of a simple distributed hydrologic model. Adv Water Resour 30 (2007) 2135-2144
14. Boughton W., and Droop B. Continuous simulation for design flood estimation-a review. Environ Model Softw 18 (2003) 309-318
15. Burlando P., and Rosso R. Scaling and multifractal depth-duration-frequency curves of storm precipitation. J Hydrol 187 1-2 (1996) 45-64
16. Burn D.H. Catchment similarity for regional flood frequency analysis using seasonality measures. J Hydrol 202 (1997) 212-230
17. Cameron D.S., Beven K.J., Tawn J., Blazkova S., and Naden P. Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged upland catchment (with uncertainty). J Hydrol 219 (1999) 169-187
18. Castellarin A., Burn D.H., and Brath A. Assessing the effectiveness of hydrological similarity measures for flood frequency analysis. J Hydrol 241 (2001) 270-285
19. Chow V.T., Maidment D.R., and Mays L.W. Applied hydrology (1988), McGraw Hill, New York
20. CORINE. CooRdinating Information on the Environment, project EU; 1993. .
21. Cowpertwait P.S.P. A generalized point process model of rainfall. Proc R Soc Lond A 447 (1994) 23-37
22. Cowpertwait P.S.P. A generalized spatial-temporal model of rainfall based on a cluster point process. Proc R Soc Lond A 450 (1995) 163-175
23. Darlymple T. Flood frequency analysis. U.S. Geological Survey, Water supply paper 1543-A; 1960.
24. De Michele C, Guidi G, Rosso R. La valutazione delle risposta idrologica del terreno nel bacino padano: Caratterizzazione e mappatura spaziale del massimo potenziale di ritenzione idrica [Evaluation of the hydrological response in the Po river basin: characters and mapping of the maximum soil absorption]. L'ACQUA, 6; 2000. p. 17-24 [in Italian, Abstract in English].
25. De Michele C., and Rosso R. Uncertainty assessment of regionalized flood frequency estimates. J Hydrol Eng, ASCE 6 6 (2001) 453-459
26. De Michele C., and Rosso R. A multi-level approach to flood frequency regionalisation. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 6 2 (2002) 185-194
27. De Michele C., and Salvadori G. On the derived flood frequency distribution: analytical formulation and the influence of antecedent soil moisture condition. J Hydrol 262 1-4 (2002) 245-258
28. De Michele C., Kottegoda N.T., and Rosso R. The derivation of areal reduction factor of storm rainfall from its scaling properties. Water Resour Res 37 12 (2002) 3247-3252
29. De Michele C., Salvadori G., Canossi M., Petaccia A., and Rosso R. Bivariate statistical approach to check adequacy of dam spillway. J Hydrol Eng 10 1 (2005) 50-57
30. Franchini M., Helmlinger K.M., Foufoula Georgiou E., and Todini E. Stochastic storm transposition coupled with rainfall-runoff modelling for estimation of exceedance probabilities of design floods. J Hydrol 175 (1996) 511-532
31. Fiorentino M., Versace P., and Rossi F. Regional flood frequency estimation using the two-component extreme value distribution. Hydrol Sci J 30 1 (1985) 51-64
32. Furey P.R., and Gupta V.K. Diagnosing peak-discharge power laws observed in rainfall-runoff events in Goodwin Creek experimental watershed. Adv Water Resour 30 (2007) 2387-2399
33. Gabriele S., and Arnell N. A hierarchic approach to regional flood frequency analysis. Water Resour Res 27 6 (1991) 1281-1289
34. Guo Y. Hydrologic design of urban flood - control detention ponds. J Hydrol Eng, ASCE 6 6 (2001) 472-479
35. Gupta V.K., Mesa O.J., and Dawdy D.R. Multiscaling theory of flood peaks: regional quantile analysis. Water Resour Res 30 (1994) 3405-3421
36. Gupta VK, Troutman BM, Dawdy DR. Towards a nonlinear geophysical theory of floods in river networks: an overview of 20 years of progress. In: Tsonis AA, Elsner JB, editors. Nonlinear dynamics in geosciences. Proceedings of 20 years of nonlinear dynamics in geosciences, June 11-16, 2006, Rhodes, Greece; 2007 [Ch. 8].
37. Hack JT. Studies of longitudinal profiles in Virginia and Maryland. US Geol. Surv. Prof. pap. 294-B; 1957.
38. Hjelmfelt A.T. Investigation of curve number procedure. J Hydrol Eng, ASCE 117 6 (1991) 725-737
39. Hosking J.R., Wallis J.R., and Wood E.F. An appraisal of the regional flood frequency procedure in the UK flood studies report. Hydrol Sci J 30 (1985) 85-109
40. Hosking J.R.M., and Wallis J.R. The effect of inter site dependence on regional flood frequency analysis. Water Resour Res 24 4 (1988) 588-600
41. Hosking J.R.M., and Wallis J.R. Some statistics useful in regional frequency analysis. Water Resour Res 29 2 (1993) 217-281
42. Jin C. Determination of basin lag time in rainfall-runoff investigations. Hydrol Process 7 (1993) 449-457
43. Katz R.W., Parlange M.B., and Naveau P. Statistics of extremes in hydrology. Adv Water Resour 25 (2002) 1287-1304
44. Kottegoda N., and Rosso R. Statistics probability and reliability for civil and environmental engineers (1997), McGraw-Hill
45. Kottegoda N.T., Natale L., and Raiteri E. Statistical modelling of daily stream flows using rainfall input and curve number technique. J Hydrol 234 (2000) 170-186
46. Lang M., Ouarda T.B.M.J., and Bobeé B. Towards operational guidelines for over-threshold modelling. J Hydrol 225 (1999) 103-117
47. Lu L.H., and Stedinger J.R. Sampling variance of normalized GEV/PWM quantile estimators and a regional homogeneity test. J Hydrol 138 (1992) 223-245
48. Lu L.H., and Stedinger J.R. Variance of two and three parameter GEV/PWM quantile estimators formulae confidence intervals and a comparison. J Hydrol 138 (1992) 247-267
49. Madsen H., Rasmussen P.F., and Rosbjerg D. Comparison of annual maximum series and partial duration series methods for modelling extreme hydrologic events. 1. At-site modelling. Water Resour Res 33 4 (1997) 747-757
50. Madsen H., Pearson C.P., and Rosbjerg D. Comparison of annual maximum series and partial duration series methods for modelling extreme hydrologic events. 2. Regional modelling. Water Resour Res 33 4 (1997) 759-769
51. Maidment R.D. Handbook of hydrology (1992), McGraw-Hill, New York
52. Mays L.W. Water resources handbook (1996), McGraw-Hill
53. Mesa O.J., and Gupta V.K. On the main channel length-area relationship for channel networks. Water Resour Res 23 11 (1987) 2119-2122
54. Montaldo N., Ravazzani G., and Mancini M. On the prediction of the Toce alpine basin floods with distributed hydrologic models. Hydrol Process 21 (2007) 608-621
55. Önöz B., and Bayazit M. Effect of the occurrence process of the peaks over threshold on the flood estimates. J Hydrol 244 (2001) 86-96
56. Pardé M. Fleuves et rivières. 2nd ed. Rev. et Corr., Colin, Paris; 1947.
57. Poveda G., et al. Linking long-term water balances and statistical scaling to estimate river flows along the drainage network of Colombia. J Hydrol Eng 12 1 (2007) 4-13
58. Rahman A., Weinmann P.E., Hoang T.M.T., and Laurenson E.M. Monte Carlo simulation of flood frequency curves from rainfall. J Hydrol 256 (2002) 196-210
59. Rabuffetti D., Ravazzani G., Corbari C., and Mancini M. Verification of operational Quantitative Discharge Forecast (QDF) for a regional warning system - the AMPHORE case studies in the upper Po River. Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci 8 (2008) 161-173
60. Ravazzani G. Processi idrologici nella modellistica di piena: analisi di un sistema di pre-allerta per il bacino del fiume Arno [Hydrological processess and flood modelling: a flood warning system for the Arno river watershed]. PhD diss., Cycle XVI, Politecnico di Milano; 2004 [in Italian]. .
61. Registro Italiano Dighe; 2007. .
62. Robinson J.S., and Sivapalan M. An investigation into the physical causes of scaling and heterogeneity of regional flood frequency. Water Resour Res 33 (1997) 1045-1059
63. Robson A., and Reed D. Flood estimation handbook (FEH) vol. 3 (1999), Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford
64. Rodriguez Iturbe I., and Valdés J. The geomorphologic structure of hydrologic response. Water Resour Res 15 6 (1979) 1409-1420
65. Rosso R. Nash model relation to Horton order ratios. Water Resour Res 20 7 (1984) 914-920
66. Rosso R, De Michele C, Montanari A. The statistical assessment of short duration and high intensity rainfall: an application to the Tyrrhenian Liguria and the Po Basin. In: Maione U, Brath A, editors. Proceedings of the hydraulic defence of territory, Milano, 7-11 October 1996. Bios Ed. Cosenza; 1997 [paper in Italian language].
67. Rosso R., Rulli M.C., and Bocchiola D. Transient catchments hydrology after wildfires in a Mediterranean watershed: runoff sediment and woody debris. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11 1 (2007) 125-140
68. Rosso R. Contratto di consulenza tra provincia di Imperia e Politecnico di Milano, DIIAR in tema di valutazione delle portate e dei volumi idrici di piena del torrente Argentina, relazione finale [Evaluation of flood discharges and volumes for the Argentina river]. Province of Imperia; 2007.
69. Rudari R., Entekhabi D., and Roth G. Large-scale atmospheric patterns associated with mesoscale features leading to extreme precipitation events in Northwestern Italy. Adv Water Resour 28 (2005) 601-614
70. Rulli M.C., and Rosso R. An integrated simulation method for flash-flood risk assessment: 1. Frequency predictions in the Bisagno River by combining stochastic and deterministic methods. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 6 (2002) 267-283
71. Rulli M.C., and Rosso R. Modelling catchment erosion after wildfires in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. Geophys Res Lett 32 (2005) L19401 10.1029/2005GL023635
72. Rulli M.C., Bozzi S., Spada M., Bocchiola D., and Rosso R. Rainfall simulations on a fire disturbed Mediterranean area. J Hydrol 327 3-4 (2006) 323-338
73. Salvadori G., De Michele C., Kottegoda N., and Rosso R. Extremes in nature: an approach using Copulas (2007), Springer: Complexity, Dordrecht
74. Sivapalan M, 13 co-authors. IAHS decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB), 2003-2012: shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences. Hydrol Sci J 2003;48(6):857-80.
75. Skaugen T., and Væringstad T. A methodology for regional flood frequency estimation based on scaling properties. Hydrol Process 19 (2005) 1481-1495
76. Sveinsson O., Boes G.B., Duane C., and Salas J.D. Population index flood method for regional frequency analysis. Water Resour Res 37 11 (2001) 2733-2748
77. Soil Conservation Service. Urban hydrology for small watersheds. US Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC, 1975 [Updated, 1986].
78. USDA, United States Department of Agriculture. National engineering handbook, Part 630: hydrology; 2004. .
79. Vaes G., Willems P., and Berlamont J. Rainfall input requirements for hydrological calculations. Urban Water 3 (2001) 107-112
80. Watt W.E., and Chow K.C.A. A general expression for basin lag time. Can J Civil Eng 12 (1985) 294-300
81. Wiltshire S.E. Regional flood frequency analysis. I: Homogeneity statistics. Hydrol Sci J 31 (1986) 321-333