Chance establishment for sexual, semelparous species: Overcoming the allee effect

American Naturalist

Volumn 173, Issue 6, 2009, Pages 734-746

  Jerde, Christopher L ^a,b   Bampfylde, Caroline J ^a,c   Lewis, Mark A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA   (Canada)

^b UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME   (United States)

^c ALBERTA ENVIRONMENT AND PARKS   (Canada)

Author keywords

Nonindigenous species, hierarchical modeling, establishment, demographic stochasticity, propagule pressure, allee effect

Indexed keywords

ALLEE EFFECT; BIOLOGICAL INVASION; CRAB; EXTINCTION RISK; FECUNDITY; GROWTH RATE; INVASIVE SPECIES; LIFE HISTORY TRAIT; POPULATION SIZE; PROBABILITY; SNAIL; SURVIVAL;

DECAPODA (CRUSTACEA); ERIOCHEIR SINENSIS; GASTROPODA; MALUS X DOMESTICA; POMACEA CANALICULATA;

ANIMAL; ARTICLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; BRACHYURA; FEMALE; FERTILITY; MALE; POPULATION DENSITY; POPULATION GROWTH; SEX RATIO; SNAIL;

ANIMALS; BRACHYURA; FEMALE; FERTILITY; MALE; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DENSITY; POPULATION GROWTH; SEX RATIO; SNAILS;

EID: 67650233941     PISSN: 00030147     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1086/598496     Document Type: Article

References (66)

1. Albrecht, E., N. Carreno, and A. Castro-Vazquez. 1996. A quantitative study of copulation and spawning in the South American applesnail Pomacea canaliculata Lamarck (Prosobranchia, Ampullariidae). Veliger 39:142-147.
2. Allee, W 1938. The social life of animals. Norton, New York.
3. Anger, K. 1991. Effects of temperature and salinity on the larval development of the Chinese mitten crab Eriocheir sinensis (Decapoda: Grapsoidea). Marine Ecology Progress Series 72:103-110.
4. 2006. Contributions of larval biology to crustacean research: a review. Invertebrate Reproduction and Development 49:175-205.
5. Anonymous. 2005. Aquatic invasive species: channeled apple snail. Indiana Department of Natural Resources, Indianapolis.
6. Bessa-Gomes, C., S. Legendre, and J. Clobert. 2004. Allee effects, mating systems and the extinction risk in populations with two sexes. Ecology Letters 7:802-812. (Pubitemid 39175192)
7. Boukal, D., and L. Berec. 2002. Single-species models of the Allee effect: extinction boundaries, sex ratios, and mate encounters. Journal of Theoretical Biology 218:375-394. (Pubitemid 35191835)
8. Brook, B., J. O'Grady, A. Chapman, M. A. H. Burgman, and R. Frankham. 2000. Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology. Nature 404:385-387. (Pubitemid 30164338)
9. Carlsson, N., C. Bronmark, and L. Hansson. 2004. Invading herbivory: the golden apple snail alters ecosystem functioning in Asian wetlands. Ecology 85:1575-1580. (Pubitemid 39196975)
10. Carlton, J. 1996. Pattern, process, and prediction in marine invasion ecology. Biological Conservation 78:97-106. (Pubitemid 27083063)
11. Casella, G., and R. Berger. 2002. Statistical inference. 2nd ed. Duxbury, Pacific Grove, CA.
12. Chatfield, C., and C. Theobald. 1973. Mixtures and random sums. Statistician 22:281-287.
13. Cohen, A., and J. Carlton. 1998. Accelerating invasion rate in a highly invaded estuary. Science 279:555-558. (Pubitemid 28067282)
14. Courchamp, R., L. Berec, and J. Gascoigne. 2008. Allee effects in ecology and conservation. Oxford University Press, New York.
15. de Camino Beck, T., and M. Lewis. 2007. A new method for calculating net reproductive rate from graph reduction with applications to the control of invasive species. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 69:1341-1354.
16. 2008. On net reproductive rate and the timing of reproductive output. American Naturalist 172:128-139.
17. Dennis, B. 1989. Allee effects: population growth, critical density, and the chance of extinction. Natural Resource Modeling 3:481-538.
18. 2002. Allee effects in stochastic populations. Oikos 96:389-401.
19. Dennis, B., and S. Lele. 2009. Bayesian methods for hierarchical models: are ecologists making a Faustian bargain? Ecological Applications 19:581-584.
20. Dennis, B., J. Ponciano, S. Lele, M. Taper, and D. Staples. 2006. Estimating density dependence, process noise, and observation error. Ecological Monographs 76:323-341. (Pubitemid 44215703)
21. Drake, J., and J. Bossenbroek. 2004. The potential distribution of zebra mussels in the US. BioScience 54:931-941.
22. Drake, J., and C. Jerde. 2009. Stochastic models of propagule pressure and establishment. Pages 83-102 in R. P. Keller, D. M. Lodge, M. A. Lewis, and J. F. Shogren, eds. Bioeconomics of invasive species: integrating ecology, economics, policy, and management. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
23. Drake, J., and D. Lodge. 2006. Allee effects, propagule pressure and the probability of establishment: risk analysis for biological invasions. Biological Invasions 8:365-375. (Pubitemid 43036814)
24. Drake, J., P. Baggenstos, and D. Lodge. 2005. Propagule pressure and persistence in experimental populations. Biology Letters 1:480483. (Pubitemid 41796600)
25. Drury, K., J. Drake, D. Lodge, and G. Dwyer. 2007. Immigration events dispersed in space and time: factors affecting invasion success. Ecological Modelling 206:63-78. (Pubitemid 46977550)
26. Ellner, S., J. Fieberg, D. Ludwig, and C. Wilcox. 2002. Precision of population viability analysis. Conservation Biology 16:258-261.
27. Engen, S., O. Bakke, and A. Islam. 1989. Demographic and environmental stochasticky: concepts and definitions. Biometrics 54: 840-846.
28. Estebenet, A., and N. Cazzaniga. 1992. Growth and demography of Pomacea canaliculata (Gastropoda: Ampullariidae) under laboratory conditions. Malacological Review 25:1-12.
29. Estebenet, A., and P. Martin. 2002. Pomacea canaliculata (Gastropoda: Ampullariidae): life-history traits and their plasticity. Bioceli 26: 83-89.
30. Goodman, D. 1987. Considerations of stochastic demography in the design and management of reserves. Natural Resource Modeling 1:205-234.
31. Grevstad, F. 1999. Factors influencing the chance of population establishment: implications for release strategies in biocontrol. Ecological Applications 9:1439-1447. (Pubitemid 29536915)
32. Herborg, L., M. Bentley, A. Clare, and K. Last. 2006. Mating behavior and chemical communication in the invasive Chinese mitten crab Eriocheir sinensis. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 329:1-10.
33. Herborg, L., C. Jerde, D. Lodge, G. Ruiz, and H. Maclsaac. 2007. Predicting the North American distribution of Chinese mitten crabs (Eriocheir sinensis) using measures of propagule pressure and environmental niche models. Ecological Applications 17:663-674.
34. Hurford, A., M. Hebblewhite, and M. Lewis. 2006. A spatially explicit model for an Allee effect: why wolves recolonize so slowly in Greater Yellowstone. Theoretical Population Biology 70:244-254. (Pubitemid 44485768)
35. Jerde, C., and M. Lewis. 2007. Waiting for invasions: a framework for the arrival of nonindigenous species. American Naturalist 170: 1-9. (Pubitemid 46984572)
36. Keller, R., L. Drake, and D. Lodge. 2007. Fecundity as a basis for risk assessment of nonindigenous freshwater molluscs. Conservation Biology 21:191-200. (Pubitemid 46254042)
37. Kobayashi, S. 2001. Fecundity of the Japanese mitten crab Eriocheir japonica (De Haan). Benthos Research 56:1-7.
38. Kolar, C., and D. Lodge. 2001. Progress in invasion biology: predicting invaders. Trends in Ecology 8c Evolution 16:199-204. (Pubitemid 32197567)
39. Kot, M., M. Lewis, and P. van den Driessche. 1996. Dispersal data and the spread of invading organisms. Ecology 77:2027-2042. (Pubitemid 27178061)
40. Lande, R. 1993. Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticky and random catastrophes. American Naturalist 142:911-927. (Pubitemid 2031234)
41. Lee, A., S. Engen, and B. Ssether. 2008. Understanding mating systems: a mathematical model of the pair formation process. Theoretical Population Biology 73:112-124.
42. Leipus, R., and M. Viano. 2003. Long memory and stochastic trend. Statistics and Probability Letters 61:177-190.
43. Leung, B., and N. Mandrak. 2007. The risk of establishment of aquatic invasive species: joining invasibility and propagule pressure. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 274:2603-2609. (Pubitemid 47492637)
44. Leung, B., D. Lodge, D. Finnoff, J. Shogren, M. Lewis, and G. Lamberts 2002. An ounce of prevention or a pound of cure: bioeconomic risk analysis of invasive species. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 269:2407-2413. (Pubitemid 36005693)
45. Leung, B., J. Drake, and D. Lodge. 2004. Predicting invasions: propagule pressure and the gravity of Allee effects. Ecology 85:16511660. (Pubitemid 39188159)
46. Lewis, M., and P. Kareiva. 1993. Allee dynamics and the spread of invading organisms. Theoretical Population Biology 43:141-158. (Pubitemid 23406718)
47. Liebhold, A., and J. Bascompte. 2003. The Allee effect, stochastic dynamics and the eradication of alien species. Ecology Letters 6: 133-140. (Pubitemid 36463402)
48. Lockwood, J., P. Cassey, and T. Blackburn. 2005. The role of propagule pressure in explaining species invasions. Trends in Ecology 8t Evolution 20:223-228. (Pubitemid 40588906)
49. Moinar P., A. Derocher, M. Lewis, and M. Taylor. 2008. Modelling the mating system of polar bears: a mechanistic approach to the Allee effect. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 275:217-226.
50. Odum, H., and W. Allee. 1954. A note on the stable point of populations showing both intraspecific cooperation and disoperation. Ecology 35:95-97.
51. Regan, H., M. Colyvan, and M. Burgman. 2002. A taxonomy and treatment of uncertainty for ecology and conservation biology. Ecological Applications 12:618-628. (Pubitemid 36516680)
52. Regan, T., M. McCarthy, P. Baxter, R. Panetta, and H. Possingham. 2006. Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant. Ecology Letters 9:759-766. (Pubitemid 43883024)
53. Rudnick, D., T. Veldhuizen, R. Tullis, C. Culver, K. Hieb, and B. Tsukimura. 2005. A life history model for the San Francisco estuary population of the Chinese mitten crab, Eriocheir sinensis (Decapoda: Grapsoidea). Biological Invasions 7:333-350.
54. Ruiz, G., L. Fegley, P. Fofonoff, Y Cheng, and R. Lemaitre. 2006. First records of Eriocheir sinensis H. Milne Edwards, 1853 (Crustacea: Brachyura: Varunidae) for Chesapeake Bay and the midAtlantic coast of North America. Aquatic Invasions 1:137-142.
55. Sakai, A., F. Allendorf, J. Holt, D. Lodge, J. Molofsky, K. With, S. Baughman, et al. 2001. The population biology of invasive species. Annual Reviews of Ecology and Systematics 32:305-332.
56. Shaffer, M. 1981. Minimum population sizes for species conservation. BioScience 31:131-134.
57. Simberloff, D. 2003a. Eradication: preventing invasions at the outset. Weed Science 51:247-253.
58. 2003 b. How much information on population biology is needed to manage introduced species? Conservation Biology 17: 83-92.
59. Taylor, C., and A. Hastings. 2005. Allee effects in biological invasions. Ecology Letters 8:895-908.
60. Taylor, H., and S. Karlin. 1998. An introduction to stochastic modeling. 3rd ed. Academic Press, San Diego, CA.
61. Veit, R., and M. Lewis. 1996. Dispersal, population growth, and the Allee effect: dynamics of the house finch invasion of eastern North America. American Naturalist 148:255-274. (Pubitemid 27048321)
62. Von Holle, B., and D. Simberloff. 2005. Ecological resistance to biological invasion overwhelmed by propagule pressure. Ecology 86: 3212-3218. (Pubitemid 43086894)
63. Wang, M., and M. Kot. 2001. Speeds of invasion in a model with strong and weak Allee effects. Mathematical Biosciences 171:8397. (Pubitemid 32429044)
64. Williamson, M. 1999. Invasions. Ecography 22:5-12.
65. Yusa, Y. 2007. Nuclear sex-determining genes cause large sex-ratio variation in the apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata. Genetics 175: 179-184. (Pubitemid 46168563)
66. Zhang, T., Z. Li, and Y. Cui. 2001. Survival, growth, sex ratio, and maturity of the Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) reared in a Chinese pond. Journal of Freshwater Ecology 16:633-640.