Predictions of cancer incidence and mortality in Catalonia to 2015 by means of Bayesian models;Proyección de la incidencia y la mortalidad del cáncer en Cataluña hasta el año 2015 mediante un modelo bayesiano

Medicina Clinica

Volumn 131, Issue SUPPL. 1, 2008, Pages 32-41

  Ribes, J ^a,e   Clries, R ^a,b   Buxo M ^a   Ameijide, A ^c   Valls, J ^a,d   Gispert, R ^a  

^a HOSPITAL CLÍNIC   (Spain)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BARCELONA   (Spain)

^c Departament de Salut Generalitat de Catalunya ^*  (Spain)

^d UNIVERSITAT AUTÒNOMA DE BARCELONA   (Spain)

^e HOSPITAL UNIVERSITARI DE BELLVITGE   (Spain)

Author keywords

Cancer; Incidence; Mortality; Projections; Risk

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE DISTRIBUTION; AGED; AGING; ARTICLE; ATTRIBUTABLE RISK; BAYES THEOREM; BLADDER CANCER; BREAST CANCER; CANCER INCIDENCE; CANCER MORTALITY; CANCER REGISTRY; CANCER RISK; CANCER STATISTICS; CENTRAL NERVOUS SYSTEM TUMOR; CHILD; COLON CANCER; CONTROLLED STUDY; ESOPHAGUS CANCER; FEMALE; HODGKIN DISEASE; HUMAN; INFANT; KIDNEY CANCER; LARYNX CANCER; LEUKEMIA; LIVER CANCER; LUNG CANCER; LYMPHOPROLIFERATIVE DISEASE; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MELANOMA; MOUTH CANCER; MULTIPLE MYELOMA; NEWBORN; NONHODGKIN LYMPHOMA; OVARY CANCER; PANCREAS CANCER; POPULATION RESEARCH; PREDICTION; PRESCHOOL CHILD; RECTUM CANCER; SCHOOL CHILD; SEX DIFFERENCE; SPAIN; STOMACH CANCER; THYROID CANCER; UTERUS CANCER; INCIDENCE; MIDDLE AGED; MORTALITY; NEOPLASM;

ADULT; AGED; BAYES THEOREM; FEMALE; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; NEOPLASMS; SPAIN;

EID: 67549104465     PISSN: 00257753     EISSN: 15788989     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0025-7753(08)76431-5     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. T. Hakulinen, and M. Hakama Predictions of epidemiology and the evaluation of cancer control measures and the setting of policy priorities Soc Sci Med 33 1991 1379 1383
2. F. Bray, and B. Moller Predicting the future burden of cancer Nat Rev Cancer 6 2006 63 74
3. T. Dyba, and T. Hakulinen Comparison of different approaches to incidence prediction based on simple interpolation techniques Stat Med 19 2000 1741 1752
4. B. Møller, H. Fekjaer, T. Hakulinen, H. Sigvaldason, H.H. Storm, and M. Talbäck Prediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries: empirical comparison of different approaches Stat Med 22 2003 2751 2766
5. I. Bray Application of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to projecting cancer incidence and mortality Appl Statist 51 2002 151 164
6. S.A. Bashir, and J. Estve Projecting cancer incidence and mortality using Bayesian age-period-cohort models J Epidemiol Bioestat 6 2001 287 296
7. R. Clries, J. Ribes, L. Esteban, J.M. Martínez, and J.M. Borrs Time trends of breast cancer mortality in Spain during the period 1977-2001 and Bayesian approach for projections during 2002-2016 Ann Oncol 17 2006 1783 1791
8. D.M. Parkin The evolution of the population-based cancer registry Nat Rev Cancer 6 2006 603 612
9. Parkin DM, Whelan SL, Ferlay J, Storm H. Cancer incidence in five continents. Vol I-VIII. IARC CancerBase No. 7. Lyon: IARC; 2005. Disponible en: http://www-dep.iarc.fr/
10. Borrs J, Galceran J, Piñol Ll, Cardó X, Ameijide A, Izquierdo A, et al. Cancer incidence in Tarragona, Spain (1998-2001). En: Curado MP, Edwards B, Shin HR, Storm H, Ferlay J, Heanue M, et al, editores. Cancer incidence in five continents. Vol IX. IARC Scientific Publications No. 160. Lyon: IARC; 2007. Disponible en: http://www-dep.iarc.fr/
11. Izquierdo A, Marcos-Gragera R, Vilardell L, Viladiu P, Borrs JM, Ribes J, et al. Cancer incidence in Girona, Spain (1998-2002). En: Curado MP, Edwards B, Shin HR, Storm H, Ferlay J, Heanue M, et al, editores. Cancer incidence in five continents. Vol IX. IARC Scientific Publications No. 160. Lyon: IARC; 2007. Disponible en: http://www-dep.iarc.fr/
12. Servei d'informació i estudis, Anlisi de la mortalitat a Catalunya, 2005. Barcelona: Departament de Salut. Generalitat de Catalunya; 2007.
13. Web de l'Estadística Oficial de Catalunya. IDESCAT. Población. Disponible en: http://www.idescat.net/cat/poblacio
14. Breslow NE, Day NE. Rates and rates standardization. En: Davis W, editor. Statistical methods in Cancer research. Vol II. The design and analysis of cohort studies. IARC Scientific Publications No 32. Lyon: IARC; 1987.
15. L. Knorr-Held, and E. Rainer Projections of lung cancer mortality in West Germany: a case study in Bayesian prediction Biostatistics 2 2001 109 129
16. S. Pitarque, R. Clries, J.M. Martínez, G. López-Abente, M. Kogevinas, and F.G. Benavides Mesothelioma mortality in men: trends during 1977-2001 and projections for 2002-2016 in Spain Occup Environ Med 65 2007 279 282
17. A. Gelman, J.B. Carlin, and H. Stern Bayesian data analysis 2003 Chapman & Hall London
18. T. Dyba, and T. Hakulinen Do cancer predictions work? Eur J Cancer 44 2008 448 453
19. H.E. Karim-Kos, E. De Vries, I. Soerjomataram, V. Lemmens, S. Siesling, and J.W. Coebergh Recent trends of cancer in Europe: A combined approach of incidence, survival and mortality for 17 cancer sites since the 1990s Eur J Cancer 2008
20. H. Moller, L. Fairley, V. Coupland, C. Okello, M. Green, and D. Forman The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020 Br J Cancer 96 2007 1484 1488
21. N. Day Cumulative rate and cumulative risk C. Muir J. Waterhouse T. Mack J. Powell S. Whelan Cancer incidence in five continents 5 1987 IARC Lyon 787 789 IARC Scientific Publications No 88
22. S.A. Bashir, and J. Estve Analysing the difference due to risk and and demographic factors for incidence or mortality Int J Epidemiol 29 2000 878 884
23. B. Moller, H. Fekjaer, T. Hakulinen, L. Tryggvadttir, H.H. Storm, and M. Talbäck Prediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries up to the year 2020 Eur J Cancer Prevention 11 2002 S1 96
24. Generalitat de Catalunya. Departament de Sanitat i Seguretat Social. Enquesta de Salut de Catalunya, 2006 (ESCA 2006). Barcelona: Servei Catal de la Salut; 2007.
25. L. Balducci, and W.B. Ershler Cancer and ageing: a nexus at several levels Nar Rev Cancer 5 2005 655 662
26. B.K. Edwards, H.L. Howe, L.A. Ries, M.J. Thun, H.M. Rosenberg, and R. Yancik Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, 1973-1999, feauturing implications of age and aging on US cancer burden Cancer 94 2002 2766 2792
27. Borrs JM, Borrs J, Bosch FX, Fernández E, Galceran J, Gispert R, et al. Cncer Catalunya 2001. Institut Catal d'Oncologia. L'Hospitalet de Llobregat: Departament de Sanitat I Seguretat Social; 2001.
28. IARC. Tobacco smoking and involuntary smoking. IARC Monographs on the evaluation of carcinogenic risks to humans. Vol 83. Lyon: International Agency for Research on Cancer; 2003.
29. D.A. Berry, K.A. Cronin, S.K. Plevritis, D.G. Fryback, L. Clarke, and M. Zelen Effect of screening and adjuvant therapy on mortality from breast cancer N Engl J Med 353 2005 1784 1792