Analysis of computer security incident data using time series models

Proceedings - International Symposium on Software Reliability Engineering, ISSRE

Volumn , Issue , 2008, Pages 77-86

  Condon, Edward ^a   He, Angela ^b   Cukier, Michel ^a  

^a Department of Mechanical Engineering   (United States)

^b Bldg 142   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER AND NETWORK SECURITY; COMPUTER SECURITY; MITIGATION STRATEGY; MODEL SELECTION CRITERIA; NONHOMOGENEOUS POISSON PROCESS; PROPRIETARY INFORMATION; REPUTATIONAL DAMAGE; SECURITY INCIDENT; SOFTWARE RELIABILITY GROWTH; STOCK PRICE; TIME SERIES MODELS;

COMPUTER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT; COMPUTER SOFTWARE SELECTION AND EVALUATION; INTERNET; NETWORK SECURITY; PLANNING; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; QUALITY ASSURANCE; RESOURCE ALLOCATION; TIME SERIES; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS;

SOFTWARE RELIABILITY;

EID: 67249158436     PISSN: 10719458     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: 10.1109/ISSRE.2008.39     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (41)

1. P. Bächer, T. Holz, M.Kötter, G. Wicherski, "Know Your Enemy: Tracking Botnets", The Honeynet Project and Research Alliance, Mar. 2005; http://www.honeynet.org/papers/bots/.
2. US-CERT. (2007, Mar.). Quarterly Trends and Analysis Report. [Online]. 2 (1); *http://www.uscert.gov/press-room/trendsandanalysisQ107.pdf.
3. Reuters, "Cybercrime is Getting Organized", Wired, Sept. 2006; http://www.wired.com/techbiz/media/news/2006/09/71793.
4. Anti-Phishing Working Group, Apr. 2007; http://www.antiphishing.org/.
5. D. Goodin, "California Man Pleads Guilty to Felony Hacking", Breitbart, Jan. 2005; http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id= D8FALFU05&show-article=1.
6. M. Braverman, J. Williams, Z. Mador, "Microsoft Security Intelligence Report January-June 2006", 2006; http://download.microsoft. com/download/4/b/f/4bff7b73-9250-4004-a07a-81191ddae984/MS-Security-Report-Jan- Jun06.pdf.
7. R. Richardson, "2007 CSI Computer Crime and Security Survey", Sep. 2007; http://i.cmpnet.com/v2.gocsi.com/pdf/CSISurvey2007.pdf.
8. J. Zhuge, T. Holz, C. Song, J. Guo, X. Han, W. Zou, "Studying Malicious Websites and the Underground Economy on the Chinese Web", Department for Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Mannheim, TR-2007-2011, Dec. 2007; http://madoc.bib.unimannheim.de/madoc/volltexte/2007/ 1718/.
9. K. Campbell, L. A. Gordon, M. P. Loeb, L. Zhou, "The Economic Cost of Publicly Announced Information Security Breaches: Empirical Evidence from the Stock Market", Jour. of Computer Security, vol.11, (3), 2003, pp. 431-448.
10. A. Acquisti, A. Friedman and R. Telang, "Is There a Cost to Privacy Breaches? An Event Study", The Fifth Workshop on the Economics of Information Security (WEIS 2006, University of Cambridge, England, Jun. 26-28, 2006; http://weis2006.econinfosec.org/docs/40.pdf.
11. H.K. Browne, W.A. Arbaugh, J. McHugh and W.L. Fithen, "A Trend Analysis of Exploitations", Proc. Security and Privacy, Oakland, California, USA, May 14-16, 2001, pp. 214-229. (Pubitemid 32882638)
12. J. Kim, S. Radhakrishnan, S.K. Dhall, "Measurement and analysis of worm propagation on Internet network topology", Proc. 13th Int. Conference on Computer Communications and Networks, Oct. 11-13, 2004, pp. 495- 500. (Pubitemid 40540260)
13. C.C. Zou, W. Gong, and D. Towsley, "Code Red Worm Propagation Modeling and Analysis", Proc. 9th ACM Conference on Computer and Communications Security, Nov. 2002, pp. 138-147.
14. D.J. Watts, R. Muhamad, D.C. Medina, and P.S. Dodds, "Multiscale, resurgent epidemics in a hierarchical metapopulation model", Proc. National Academy of Sciences USA, vol.102, (32), Aug. 2005, pp. 11157-11162. (Pubitemid 41153791)
15. R. Allard, "Use of Time-series Analysis in Infectious Disease Surveillance", Bulletin of the World Health Organization, vol.76, (4), 1998, pg. 327-333. (Pubitemid 28469265)
16. H. Trottier, P. Philippe and R. Roy, "Stochastic Modeling of Empirical Time Series of Childhood Infectious Diseases Data before and After Mass Vaccination", Emerging Themes in Epidemiology, vol.3, (9), Aug. 2006; http://www.ete-online.com/content/3/1/9.
17. D. Lai, "Monitoring the SARS Epidemic in China: A Time Series Analysis", Journal of Data Science, vol.3, 2005, pp. 279-293.
18. B. Han, T.Y. Leong, "We Did the Right Thing: An Intervention Analysis Approach to Modeling Intervened SARS Propagation in Singapore", Proc. of World Congress on Medical Informatics (MEDINFO), 2004, pp. 1246-1250.
19. U. Helfenstein, "Box-Jenkins Modeling of Some Viral Infectious Diseases", Statistics in Medicine, vol.5, 1986, pp. 37-47. (Pubitemid 16132215)
20. Snort; http://www.snort.org.
21. R. Pindyck and D. Rubinfeld, Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1981.
22. G. Box and G. Jenkins, Time Series Analysis; Forecasting and Control, San Francisco: Holden-Day, 1970.
23. P.J. Brockwell and R.A. Davis, Time Series: Theory and Methods, New York: Springer-Verlag, 1991.
24. R. Shumway and D. Stoffer, Time Series Analysis and Its Applications, New York: Springer-Verlag, 2000.
25. H. Akaike, "Information theory and the extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle", in Second International Symposium on Information Theory, B.N. Petrov and F. Csaki, eds., Budapest: Academia Kiado, 1973, pp. 267-281.
26. C. Hurvitch and C. Tsai, "Regression and Time Series Model Selection in Small Samples", Biometrika, vol.76, (2), Jun. 1989, pp. 297-307.
27. G. Schwarz, "Estimating the Dimension of a Model", The Annals of Statistics, vol.6, (2), Mar. 1978, pp. 461-464.
28. R. Picard, R. Cook, "Cross-validation of Regression Models", Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.79, (387), Sep., 1984, pp. 575-583.
29. R Development Core Team, "R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing", R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, 2008, ISBN 3- 900051-07-0; http://www.R-project.org.
30. E.J. Hannan and B.G. Quinn, "The Determination of the Order of an Autoregression", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, vol.41, (2), 1979, pp. 190-195.
31. F-Secure Computer Virus Information Pages: Klez; http://www.f-secure.com/ v-descs/klez.shtml.
32. F-Secure Computer Virus Information Pages: Bagle; http://www.f-secure. com/v-descs/bagle.shtml.
33. F-Secure Computer Virus Information Pages: Lovsan; http://www.f-secure. com/v-descs/msblast.shtml.
34. F-Secure Computer Virus Information Pages: Welchi; http://www.f-secure. com/v-descs/welchi.shtml.
35. E. Condon, M. Cukier, and T. He, "Applying Software Reliability Models on Security Incidents", Proc. 18th IEEE Intl. Symposium on Software Reliability Engineering, Trollhättan, Sweden, Nov. 5-9, 2007, pp. 159-168.
36. M. Xie and S. Ho, "Analysis of repairable system failure data using time series models", Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering, vol.5, (1), 1999, pp. 50-61.
37. A. L. Goel and K. Okumoto, "Time-Dependent Error- Detection Rate Model for Software Reliability and Other Performance Measures", IEEE Trans. on Reliability, vol.R- 28, (3), Aug. 1979, pp 206-211. (Pubitemid 10414925)
38. S. Yamada, M. Ohba and S. Osaki, "S-shaped Software Reliability Growth Models and Their Application", IEEE Trans. on Reliability, vol.R-33, (4), Oct. 1984, pp 289-291.
39. T.M. Khoshgoftaar, "Nonhomogeneous Poisson Processes for Software Reliability Growth", Proc. 8th symposium in computational statistics, Copenhagen, Denmark, Aug 1988, pp. 11-12.
40. J. T. Duane, "Learning Curve Approach to Reliability Monitoring", IEEE Tran. On Aerospace, As-2, 1964, pp 563-566.
41. J. Franklin, V. Paxson, A. Perrig, and S. Savage, "An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Internet Miscreants", Proc. ACM Conf. Computer and Communications Security, October 2007.