Multimodel ensemble reconstruction of drought over the continental United States

Journal of Climate

Volumn 22, Issue 10, 2009, Pages 2694-2712

  Wang, Aihui ^a,d   Bohn, Theodore J ^a   Mahanama, Sarith P ^b   Koster, Randal D ^b   Lettenmaier, Dennis P ^c  

^a Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering ^*  (United States)

^b NASA GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

^d INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC FORCING; DROUGHT SEVERITY; ENSEMBLE METHODS; INDIVIDUAL MODELS; INVERSE MAPPING; MULTI-MODEL; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE; NOWCAST; SPATIAL EXTENT; SPATIAL RESOLUTION; TEST APPLICATIONS; UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON; VEGETATION PARAMETERS; WEIBULL; WESTERN UNITED STATES;

DROUGHT; GROUNDWATER; MOISTURE DETERMINATION; PERMITTIVITY; SIMULATORS; SOIL MOISTURE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

GEOLOGIC MODELS;

ATMOSPHERIC FORCING; DROUGHT; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; LAND SURFACE; MODELING; NOWCASTING; SOIL MOISTURE; SPATIAL RESOLUTION;

NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 66849119234     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2586.1     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Alley, W. M., 1984: The Palmer Drought Severity Index: Limitations and assumptions. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 23, 1100-1109.
2. AMS Council, 1997: Policy statement - Meteorological drought. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 847-849.
3. Anderson, E. A., 1973: National Weather Service River Forecast System: Snow accumulation and ablation model. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS Hydro-17, 217 pp.
4. Andreadis, K. M., and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2006: Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10403, doi:10.1029/2006GL025711.
5. Andreadis, K. M., E. A. Clark, A. W. Wood, A. F. Hamlet, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005: Twentieth-century drought in the conterminous United States. J. Hydrometeor., 6, 985-1001.
6. Bonan, G. B., 1997: Effects of land use on the climate of the United States. Climatic Change, 37, 449-486.
7. Bonan, G. B., S. Levis, L. Kergoat, and K. W. Oleson, 2002: Landscapes as patches of plant functional types: An integrating concept for climate and ecosystem models. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 16, 1021, doi:10.1029/2000GB001360.
8. Burnash, R. J. C., R. L. Ferral, and R. A. McGuire, 1973: A generalized streamflow simulation system: Conceptual modeling for digital computers. National Weather Service and California Department of Water Resources Joint Tech. Rep., 204 pp.
9. Chen, F., Z. Janjic, and K. Mitchell, 1997: Impact of atmospheric surface layer parameterizations in the new land-surface scheme of the NCEP mesoscale Eta model. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 85, 391-421.
10. Climate Prediction Center, cited 2005: U.S. soil moisture monitoring. National Weather Service. [Available online at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/.]
11. Cook, E. R., D. M. Meko, D. W. Stahle, and M. K. Cleaveland, 1999: Drought reconstructions for the continental United States. J. Climate, 12, 1145-1162.
12. Dai, A., K. E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J. Hydrometeor., 5, 1117-1130.
13. Delworth, T. L., and S. Manabe, 1988: The influence of potential evaporation on the variabilities of simulated soil wetness and climate. J. Climate, 1, 523-547.
14. Ducharne, A., R. D. Koster, M. J. Suarez, M. Stieglitz, and P. Kumar, 2000: A catchment-based approach to modeling land surface processes in a general circulation model. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 24 823-24 838.
15. Ek, M. B., K. E. Mitchell, Y. Lin, E. Rogers, P. Grunmann, V. Koren, G. Gayno, and J. D. Tarpley, 2003: Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8851, doi:10.1029/2002JD003296.
16. Karl, T. R., 1983: Some spatial characteristics of drought duration in the United States. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 22, 1356-1366.
17. Karl, T. R., 1986: The sensitivity of the Palmer Drought Severity Index and Palmer's Z-index to their calibration coefficients including potential evapotranspiration. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 25, 78-86.
18. Keyantash, J., and J. A. Dracup, 2002: The quantification of drought: An evaluation of drought indices. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1167-1180.
19. Koren, V., J. Schaake, K. Mitchell, Q. Duan, F. Chen, and J. Baker, 1999: A parameterization of snowpack and frozen ground intended for NCEP weather and climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 19 569-19 585.
20. Koster, R. D., M. J. Suarez, A. Ducharne, M. Stieglitz, and P. Kumar, 2000a: A catchment-based approach to modeling land surface processes in a general circulation model 1. Model structure. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 24 809-24 822.
21. Koster, R. D., M. J. Suarez, and M. Heiser, 2000b: Variance and predictability of precipitation at seasonal-to-interannual timescales. J. Hydrometeor., 1, 26-46.
22. Koster, R. D., Z. Guo, R. Yang, P. Dirmeyer, and K. Mitchell, 2009: On the nature of soil moisture in land surface models. J. Climate, in press.
23. Liang, X., D. P. Lettenmaier, E. F. Wood, and S. J. Burges, 1994:A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models. J. Geophys. Res., 99, 14 415-14 428.
24. Martz, J., B. Richardson, and J. M. Souby, 2003: Letter to bill supporters commending introduction of National Drought Preparedness Act of 2003. Western Governors' Association, 2 pp. [Available online at http://www.westgov.org/wga/testim/drought-legis7-24-03.pdf.]
25. Matheussen, B., R. L. Kirschbaum, I. A. Goodman, G. M. O'Donnell, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2000: Effects of land cover change on streamflow in the interior Columbia River basin (USA and Canada). Hydrol. Processes, 14, 867-885.
26. Maurer, E. P., A. W. Wood, J. C. Adam, D. P. Lettenmaier, and B. Nijssen, 2002: A long-term hydrologically based dataset of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States. J. Climate, 15, 3237-3251.
27. Mitchell, K. E., and Coauthors, 2004: The multi-institution North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS): Utilizing multiple GCIP products and partners in a continental distributed hydrological modeling system. J. Geophys. Res., 109, D07S90, doi:10.1029/ 2003JD003823.
28. Nijssen, B., R. Schnur, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2001: Global retrospective estimation of soil moisture using the Variable Infiltration Capacity land surface model, 1980-93. J. Climate, 14, 1790-1808.
29. Niu, G.-Y., Z.-L. Yang, R. E. Dickinson, and L. E. Gulden, 2005:A simple TOPMODEL-based runoff parameterization (SIMTOP) for use in global climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D21106, doi:10.1029/ 2005JD006111.
30. Niu, G.-Y., Z.-L. Yang, R. E. Dickinson, L. E. Gulden, and H. Su, 2007: Development of a simple groundwater model for use in climate models and evaluation with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D07103, doi:10.1029/2006JD007522.
31. Oleson, K. W., G. B. Bonan, S. Levis, and M. Vertenstein, 2004: Effects of land use change on North American climates: Impact of surface datasets and model biogeophysics. Climate Dyn., 23, 117-132.
32. Oleson, K. W., and Coauthors, 2007: CLM 3.5 documentation. UCAR, 34 pp. [Available online at http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/tss/clm/distribution/clm3.5/ CLM3_5_documentation.pdf.]
33. Palmer, W. C., 1965: Meteorological drought. U.S. Department of Commerce Weather Bureau Research Paper 45, 58 pp.
34. Ross, T., and N. Lott, 2003: A climatology of 1980-2003 extreme weather and climate events. National Climatic Data Center Tech. Rep. 2003-01, 14 pp.
35. Schaake, J. C., V. I. Koren, Q.-Y. Duan, K. E. Mitchell, and F. Chen, 1996: Simple water balance model for estimating runoff at different spatial and temporal scales. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 7461-7475.
36. Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Region, R. D. Koster, and J. T. Bacmeister, 2004a: Causes of long-term drought in the U.S. Great Plains. J. Climate, 17, 485-503.
37. Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Region, R. D. Koster, and J. T. Bacmeister, 2004b: On the cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl. Science, 303, 1855-1859.
38. Svoboda, M., and Coauthors, 2002: The drought monitor. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1183-1190.
39. Tang, Q., A. W. Wood, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2009: Real-time precipitation estimation based on index station percentiles. J. Hydrometeor., 10, 266-277.
40. Trenberth, K., 2004: Exploring drought and its implications for the future. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 85, doi:10.1029/ 2004EO030004.
41. Trenberth, K., and Coauthors, 2007: Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 235-336.
42. Wang, A., X. Zeng, S. S. P. Shen, Q.-C. Zeng, and R. E. Dickinson, 2006: Time scales of land surface hydrology. J. Hydrometeor., 7, 868-879.
43. Wang, A., K. Y. Li, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2008: Integration of variable infiltration capacity model soil hydrology scheme into the community land model. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D09111, doi:10.1029/ 2007JD009246.
44. Wilhite, D. A., 1983: Government response to drought in the United States: With particular reference to the Great Plains. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 22, 40-50.
45. Wood, A. W., 2008: The University of Washington Surface Water Monitor: An experimental platform for national hydrologic assessment and prediction. Preprints, 22nd Conf. on Hydrology, New Orleans, LA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 5.2. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/ pdfpapers/134844.pdf.]
46. Wood, A. W., and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2006: Test bed for new seasonal hydrologic forecasting approaches in the western United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 1699-1712.
47. Wood, A. W., and Coauthors, 1998: The Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) phase 2(c) Red-Arkansas River basin experiment: 1. Experiment description and summary intercomparisons. Global Planet. Change, 19, 115-135.
48. Woodhouse, C. A., and J. T. Overpeck, 1998: 2000 years of drought variability in the central United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 2693-2714.
49. World Meteorological Organization, 1969: Manual for depth-area-duration analysis of storm precipitation. WMO Rep. 237.TP.129, 114 pp.