Predicting infection risk of airborne foot-and-mouth disease

Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Volumn 6, Issue 34, 2009, Pages 455-462

  Schley, David ^a   Burgin, Laura ^b   Gloster, John ^a  

^a INSTITUTE FOR ANIMAL HEALTH   (United Kingdom)

^b MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Epidemiology; Foot and mouth disease; Modelling; Risk

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE; ANIMALS; DATABASE SYSTEMS; INFORMATION MANAGEMENT; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK PERCEPTION;

AIRBORNE INFECTION; AIRBORNE TRANSMISSION; AIRBORNE VIRUS; CONTROL MEASURES; DATA INFORMATIONS; DEGREE OF ACCURACY; DIRECT CONTACT; FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE; MODELLING; SIMPLE MODEL; SOCIO-ECONOMIC;

DISEASE CONTROL;

ACCURACY; AIRBORNE INFECTION; AIRBORNE VIRUS; ANIMAL MODEL; ARTICLE; DATA BASE; EPIDEMIC; FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE; HERD; INFECTION RISK; INFORMATION SYSTEM; NONHUMAN; PREDICTION; UNITED KINGDOM; VIRUS DETECTION; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; AGRICULTURE; ANIMAL; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; DOMESTIC ANIMAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; THEORETICAL MODEL; VIROLOGY;

ANIMALIA;

AGRICULTURE; ANIMALS; ANIMALS, DOMESTIC; FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE; GREAT BRITAIN; MODELS, THEORETICAL; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 66849116990     PISSN: 17425689     EISSN: 17425662     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2008.0306     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Alexandersen, S., Zhang, Z., Donaldson, A. I. & Garland, A. J. M. 2003 The pathogenesis and diagnosis of foot-and-mouth disease. J. Comp. Pathol. 129, 1-36. (doi:10.1016/S0021-9975(03)00041-0)
2. Anderson, I. 2002 Foot and mouth disease 2001: lessons to be learned inquiry report. Report to the Prime Minister and the Secretary of State for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, London, UK.
3. Anderson, I. 2008 Foot and mouth disease 2007: a review and lessons learned. Report to the Prime Minister and the Secretary of State for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, London, UK.
4. Anon 1969 Report of the Northumberland Committee of Inquiry on Foot and Mouth Disease, 1968, London.
5. Anon 1986 Foot-and-mouth disease. Ageing of lesions. Reference book 400. London,UK: Her Majesty's Stationery Office.
6. Cannon, R. M. & Garner, M. G. 1999 Assessing the risk of wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease in Australia. Environ. Int. 25, 713-723. (doi:10.1016/S0160-4120(99)00049-5)
7. Cottam, E. M., Haydon, D. T., Paton, D. J., Gloster, J., Wilesmith, J. W., Ferris, N. P., Hutchings, G. H. & King, D. P. 2006 Molecular epidemiology of the foot-and-mouth disease virus outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001. J. Virol. 80, 11 274-11 282. (doi:10.1128/JVI.01236-06) (Pubitemid 44706567)
8. Cottam, E. M. et al. 2008 Transmission pathways of foot-and-mouth disease virus in the United Kingdom in 2007. PLoS Pathog. 4, e1000050. (doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1000050)
9. Davies, T., Cullen, M. J. P., Malcolm, A. J., Mawson, M. H., Staniforth, A., White, A. A. & Wood, N. 2005 A new dynamical core for the Met Office's global and regional modelling of the atmosphere. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131, 1759-1782. (doi:10.1256/qj.04.101)
10. Defra 2007a FMD epidemiology report: events to 30 Sept 07. London, UK: Defra. See http://www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/diseases/fmd/pdf/epidreport300907. pdf.
11. Defra 2007b Recovery of FMD free status - United Kingdom report to the World Organisation for Animal Health to recover country freedom from FMD without vaccination. London, UK: Defra.
12. Donaldson, A. I., Gloster, J., Harvey, L. D. & Deans, D. H. 1982 Use of prediction models to forecast and analyse airborne spread during the foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Brittany, Jersey and the Isle of Wight in 1981. Vet. Rec. 110, 53-57.
13. Donaldson, A. I., Gibson, C. F., Oliver, R., Hamblin, C. & Kitching, R. P. 1987 Infection of cattle by airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus: minimal doses with O1 and SAT 2 strains. Res. Vet. Sci. 43, 339-346.
14. Garner, M. G., Hess, G. D. & Yang, X. 2006 An integrated modelling approach to assess the risk of wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease virus from infected premises. Environ. Model. Assess. 11, 195-207. (doi:10.1007/s10666-005-9023-5)
15. Gloster, J. & Burgin, L. 2007 2007 UK outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease - airborne transmission of virus. In Report for Defra. London, UK: Defra.
16. Gloster, J., Blackall, R. M., Sellers, R. F. & Donaldson, A. I. 1981 Forecasting the airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease. Vet. Rec. 108, 370-374.
17. Gloster, J., Sellers, R. F. & Donaldson, A. I. 1982 Long distance transport of foot-and-mouth disease virus over the sea. Vet. Rec. 110, 47-52.
18. Gloster, J., Freshwater, A., Sellers, R. F. & Alexandersen, S. 2005 Re-assessing the likelihood of airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease at the start of the 1967-1968 UK foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. Epidemiol. Infect. 133, 767-783. (doi:10.1017/S0950268805004073)
19. Gloster, J., Sellers, R. F., Webseter, H. & Valarcher, J. 2006 Assessing the risk of airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease: a case study. Weather 61, 137-142. (doi:10.1256/wea.164.05)
20. Gloster, J. et al. In press. Foot-and-mouth disease: how much airborne virus do animals exhale? Vet. J. (doi:10.1016/j.tvjl.2008.08.003)
21. Hess, G. D., Garner, M. G. & Yang, X. 2008 A sensitivity analysis of an integrated modelling approach to assess the risk of wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease virus from infected premises. Environ. Model. Assess. 13, 209-220. (doi:10.1007/s10666-007-9097-3)
22. Hugh-Jones, M. E. &Wright, P. B. 1970 Studies on the 1967-8 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic, the relation of weather to spread of disease. J. Hyg. 68, 253-271.
23. Jewell, C. & Roberts, G. 2008 Foot-and-mouth disease 2007: statistical surveillance in real-time. In Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventative Medicine Annual Meeting 2008, Liverpool, UK.
24. Jones, A. R., Thomson, D. J., Hort, M. & Devenish, B. 2007 The UK Met Office's next-generation atmospheric dispersion model, NAME III. Air pollution modelling and its application XVII. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer.
25. Keeling, M. J. et al. 2001 Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape. Science 294, 813-817. (doi:10.1126/science.1065973)
26. Martin, S. W., Meek, A. H. & Willeberg, P. 1987 Veterinary epidemiology: principles and methods. Ames, IA: Iowa State University Press.
27. Report of the Animal Health Services in Great Britain 1967 Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Department of Agriculture and Fisheries for Scotland, pp. 10-14. London, UK: HM Stationery Office.
28. Ryan, E. et al. 2008 Clinical investigations of the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom in 2007. Vet. Rec. 163, 139-147.
29. Schley, D., Knowles, N., Gubbins, S., Gloster, J., Burgin, L. & Paton, D. 2008 Probable route of infection for the second UK 2007 foot-and-mouth disease cluster. Vet. Rec. 163, 170-171.
30. Sellers, R. F. & Forman, A. J. 1973 The Hampshire epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease, 1967. J. Hyg. 71, 15-34.
31. Sellers, R. F. & Parker, J. 1969 Airborne excretion of foot-and-mouth disease virus. J. Hyg. 67, 671-677.
32. Sørensen, J. H., Mackay, D. K. J., Jensen, C. O. & Donaldson, A. I. 2000 An integrated model to predict the atmospheric spread of foot-and-mouth virus. Epidemiol. Infect. 124, 577-590. (doi:10.1017/ S095026889900401X)
33. Tildesley, M. J., Savill, N. J., Shaw, D. J., Deardon, R., Brooks, S. P., Woolhouse, M. E. J., Grenfell, B. T. & Keeling, M. J. 2006 Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. Nature 440, 83-86. (doi:10.1038/nature04324) (Pubitemid 43336271)
34. Tildesley, M., Deardon, R., Savill, N., Bessell, P. R., Brooks, S., Woolhouse, M. E. J., Grenfell, B. T. & Keeling, M. J. 2008 Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic. Proc. R. Soc. B 275, 1459-1468. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2008.0006)