Stage-structured transmission of phocine distemper virus in the Dutch 2002 outbreak

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 276, Issue 1666, 2009, Pages 2469-2476

  Klepac, Petra ^a   Pomeroy, Laura W ^b,e   Bjørnstad, Ottar N ^a   Kuiken, Thijs ^c   Osterhaus, Albert D M E ^c   Rijks, Jolianne M ^c,d  

^a PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF MEDICINE   (United States)

^c ERASMUS MEDICAL CENTER   (Netherlands)

^d UTRECHT UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^e 220 Biomedical Research Tower ^*  (United States)

Author keywords

Harbour seals; Next generation matrix; Phoca vitulina; Phocine distemper virus; Stage structured transmission; Who acquires infection from whom matrix

Indexed keywords

ADULT; DISEASE INCIDENCE; HOST-PATHOGEN INTERACTION; INFECTIOUS DISEASE; JUVENILE; MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ANALYSIS; MORTALITY; PINNIPED; SOCIAL ORGANIZATION; VIRAL DISEASE; VIRUS;

ADOLESCENT; ARTICLE; CANINE DISTEMPER MORBILLIVIRUS; CONTROLLED STUDY; EPIDEMIC; EXPERIMENTAL MODEL; FEMALE; FREQUENCY ANALYSIS; INFECTION RATE; MALE; NETHERLANDS; NONHUMAN; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SOCIAL STRUCTURE; STATISTICAL MODEL; VIRUS TRANSMISSION;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; NORTH SEA; WADDEN SEA;

MAMMALIA; PHOCA VITULINA; PHOCINE DISTEMPER VIRUS;

EID: 66749109449     PISSN: 09628452     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2009.0175     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Abt, K. F. 2002 Phanologie und Populationskynamik des Seehundes (Phoca vitulina) im Wattenmeer: Grundlangen zur Messung von Statusparametern vol. PhD thesis, Christian-Albrechts-Universitat zu Kiel, Kiel, Germany.
2. Allen, L. & van den Driessche, P. 2008 The basic reproduction number in some discrete-time epidemic models. J. Differ. Eqns. Appl. 14, 1127-1147. (doi:10. 1080/10236190802332308)
3. Altizer, S. et al. 2003 Social organization and parasite risk in mammals: integrating theory and empirical studies. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 34, 517-547. (doi:10.1146/annurev. ecolsys.34.030102.151725)
4. Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. 1982 The control of communicable diseases by age-specific immunization schedules. Lancet 319, 160. (doi:10.1016/S0140-6736 (82)90396-8)
5. Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. 1984 Spatial, temporal, and genetic heterogeneity in host populations and the design of immunization programs. Math. Med. Biol. 1, 233-266. (doi:10.1093/imammb/1.3.233)
6. Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. 1985 Age-related changes in the rate of disease transmission: implications for the design of vaccine programmes. J. Hyg. (Cambridge) 94, 365-436.
7. Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. 1991 Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
8. Baker, J. R. 1992 The pathology of phocine distemper. Sci. Total Environ. 115, 1-7. (doi:10.1016/0048-9697(92) 90027-P)
9. Belisle, C. J. P. 1992 Convergence theorems for a class of simulated annealing algorithms. J. Appl. Probab. 29, 855-895. (doi:10.2307/3214721)
10. Cosby, S. L. et al. 1988 Characterization of a seal morbillivirus. Nature 336, 115-116. (doi:10.1038/ 336115a0)
11. de Jong, M., Diekmann, O. & Heesterbeek, J. 1994 The computations of R0 for discrete-time epidemic models with dynamic heterogeneity. Math. Biosci. 119, 97-114. (doi:10.1016/0025-5564(94))
12. De Koeijer, A., Diekmann, O. & Reijnders, P. 1998 Modelling the spread of phocine distemper virus among harbour seals. Bull. Math. Biol. 60, 585-596. (doi:10. 1006/bulm.1997.0030)
13. Diekmann, O. & Heesterbeek, J. A. P. 2000 Mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases: model building, analysis, and interpretation. New York, NY: Wiley.
14. Diekmann, O., Heesterbeek, J. A. P. & Metz, J. A. J. 1990 On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. J. Math. Biol. 28, 365-382. (doi:10.1007/BF00178324)
15. Dietz, R., Heide-Jorgensen, M.-P. & Härkönen, T. 1989 Mass deaths of harbor seals (Phoca Vitulina) in Europe. Ambio 18, 258-264. (Pubitemid 20421191)
16. Dobson, A. 2004 Population dynamics of pathogens with multiple host species. Am. Nat. 164, S64-S78. (doi:10. 1086/424681)
17. Edmunds, W. J., O'Callaghan, C. J. & Nokes, D. J. 1997 Who mixes with whom? A method to determine the contact patterns of adults that may lead to the spread of airborne infections. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 264, 949-957. (doi:10. 1098/rspb.1997.0131)
18. Ferguson, N. M., Donnelly, C. A. & Anderson, R. M. 2001 The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: pattern of spread and impact of interventions. Science 292, 1155-1160. (doi:10.1126/science.1061020)
19. Ferrari, M. J., Bansal, S., Meyers, L. A. & Bjornstad, O. N. 2006 Network frailty and the geometry of herd immunity. Proc. R. Soc. B 273, 2743-2748. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2006. 3636)
20. Fraser, C., Riley, S., Anderson, R. M. & Ferguson, N. M. 2004 Factors that make a disease outbreak controllable. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 101, 6146-6151. (doi:10.1073/ pnas.0307506101)
21. Godsell, J. 1988 Herd formation and haul-out behavior in harbor seals (Phoca vitulina). J. Zool. Lond. 215, 83-98.
22. Grenfell, B. T., Lonergan, M. E. & Harwood, J. 1992 Quantitative investigations of the epidemiology of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in European common seal populations. Sci. Total Environ. 115, 15-29. (doi:10. 1016/0048-9697(92)90029-R)
23. Hall, A. J., Jepson, P. D., Goodman, S. J. & Härkönen, T. 2006 Phocine distemper virus in the North and European Seas-data and models, nature and nurture. Biol. Conserv. 131, 221-229. (doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2006.04. 008)
24. Harder, T., Willhaus, T. H., Frey, H.-R. & Liess, B. 1990 Morbillivirus infections of seals during the 1988 epidemic in the Bay of Heligoland: III. Transmission studies of cell culture-propagated phocine distemper virus in harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) and a grey seal (Halichoerus grypus): clinical, virological and serological results. J. Vet. Med. 37, 641-650.
25. Härkönen, T., Harding, K. C. & Lunneryd, S. G. 1999 Ageand sex-specific behaviour in harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) leads to biased estimates of vital population parameters. J. Appl. Ecol. 36, 825. (doi:10.1046/j.1365-2664.1999.00434.x)
26. Härkönen, L. et al. 2006 A review of the 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper virus epidemics in European harbour seals. Dis. Aquat. Org. 68, 115-130. (doi:10.3354/ dao068115)
27. Huang, Y. & Rohani, P. 2006 Age-structured effects and disease interference in childhood infections. Proc. R. Soc. B 273, 1229-1237. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2005.3454)
28. Jensen, T., van de Bildt, M., Dietz, H. H., Andersen, T. H., Hammer, A. S., Kuiken, T. & Osterhaus, A. 2002 Another phocine distemper outbreak in Europe. Science 297, 209. (doi:10.1126/science.1075343) (Pubitemid 34761275)
29. Kanaan, M. N. & Farrington, C. P. 2005 Matrix models for childhood infections: a Bayesian approach with applications to rubella and mumps. Epidemiol. Infect. 133, 1009-1021. (doi:10.1017/S0950268805004528)
30. Klepac 2007 Interacting populations: hosts and pathogens, prey and predators. PhD thesis, MIT, Cambridge, MA.
31. Lloyd-Smith, J. O., Schreiber, S. J., Kopp, P. E. & Getz, W. M. 2005 Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence. Nature 438, 355-359. (doi:10.1038/nature04153)
32. Mahy, B. W. J., Barrett, T., Evans, S., Anderson, E. C. & Bostock, C. J. 1988 Characterization of a seal morbillivirus. Nature 336, 115. (doi:10.1038/336115a0)
33. McCallum, H., Barlow, N. & Hone, J. 2001 How should pathogen transmission be modelled? Trends Ecol. Evol. 16, 295-300. (doi:10.1016/S0169- 5347(01)02144-9) (Pubitemid 32706645)
34. Newman, M. E. J. 2005 Threshold effects for two pathogens spreading on a network. Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 108 701. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.95.108701)
35. Osterhaus, A. D. M. E. & Vedder, E. J. 1988 Identification of virus causing recent seal deaths. Nature 355, 20. (doi:10. 1038/335020a0)
36. Osterhaus, A. D. M. E., Uytdehaag, F. G., Visser, I. K., Vedder, E. J., Reijnders, P. J., Kuiper, J. & Brugge, H. N. 1989 Seal vaccination success. Nature 337, 21. (doi:10. 1038/337021a0)
37. Perkins, S. E., Cattadori, I. M., Tagliapietra, V., Rizzoli, A. P. & Hudson, P. J. 2003 Empirical evidence for key hosts in persistence of a tick-borne disease. Int. J. Parasitol. 33, 909-917. (doi:10.1016/S0020-7519(03) 00128-0)
38. R Development Core Team 2006 R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
39. Renouf, D. & Lawson, J. W. 1986 Play in harbor seals (Phoca vitulina). J. Zool. Lond. 208, 73-86.
40. Renouf, D. & Lawson, J. W. 1987 Quantitative aspects of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) play. J. Zool. Lond. 212, 267-273. (doi:10.1111/j.1469-7998. 1987.tb05989.x)
41. Ries, E. H., Hiby, L. R. & Reijnders, P. J. H. 1998 Maximum likelihood population size estimation of harbour seals in the Dutch Wadden Sea based on a mark recapture experiment. J. Appl. Ecol. 35, 332-339. (doi:10.1046/ j.1365-2664.1998.00305.x)
42. Rijks, J. M., Van de Bildt, M. W. G., Jensen, T., Philippa, J. D. W., Osterhaus, A. & Kuiken, T. 2005 Phocine distemper outbreak, The Netherlands, 2002. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 11, 1945-1948.
43. Schenzle, D. 1984 An age-structured model of pre- and post-vaccination measles transmission. Math. Med. Biol. 1, 169-191. (doi:10.1093/imammb/1.2.169)
44. Sullivan, R. M. 1982 Antagonistic behavior and dominance relationships in the harbor seals. J. Mammol. 63, 544-569. (doi:10.2307/1380260)
45. Swinton, J. 1998 Extinction times and phase transitions for spatially structured closed epidemics. Bull. Math. Biol. 60, 215-230. (doi:10.1006/bulm. 1997.0014)
46. Swinton, J., Harwood, J., Grenfell, B. T. & Gilligan, C. A. 1998 Persistence thresholds for phocine distemper virus infection in harbour seal Phoca vitulina metapopulations. J. Anim. Ecol. 67, 54-68. (doi:10.1046/j.1365- 2656.1998. 00176.x)
47. Thompson, P. M., Fedak, M. A., McConnell, B. J. & Nicholas, K. S. 1989 Seasonal and sex-related variation in the activity patterns of common seals (Phoca vitulina). J. Appl. Ecol. 26, 521-535. (doi:10.2307/2404078)
48. Traut, I. M. 1999 Spacing among harbor seals (Phoca vitulina viulina) on haul-out sites in the Wadden Sea of Niedersachsen. Z. Sugetierkunde 64, 51-53. (Pubitemid 29303015)
49. Trilateral Seal Expert Group 2001 Common seals in the Wadden Sea in 2001. In Wadden Sea Newsletter 2001, p. 3. Common Wadden Sea Secretariat.
50. van den Driessche, P. & Watmough, J. 2002 Reproduction numbers and subthreshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Math. Biosci. 180, 32-34. (doi:10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6)
51. Wallinga, J., Teunis, P. & Kretzschmar, M. 2006 Using data on social contacts to estimate age-specific transmission parameters for respiratory-spread infectious agents. Am. J. Epidemiol. 164, 936-944. (doi:10.1093/aje/kwj317)
52. Wilson, S. 1974 Juvenile play of the common seal, Phoca vitulina vitulina, with comparative notes on the gray seal Halichoerus grupus. Behaviour 48, 37-60. (doi:10.1163/ 156853974X00246)
53. Wolfram Research 2007 MATHEMATICA. Champaign, IL: Wolfram Research, Inc.
54. Woolhouse, M. E. J. et al. 1997 Heterogeneities in the transmission of infectious agents: implications for the design of control programs. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 94, 338-342. (doi:10.1073/pnas.94.1.338)