Validity of a linear stochastic view of ENSO in an ACGCM

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Volumn 65, Issue 12, 2008, Pages 3860-3879

  Kallummal, Rameshan ^a   Kirtman, Ben P ^a,b  

^a CENTER FOR OCEAN LAND ATMOSPHERE STUDIES   (United States)

^b GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL CYCLES; BEST FITS; CONTINUOUS SIMULATIONS; CONVECTIVE ACTIVITIES; CORRELATION MATRICES; COUPLED MODELS; EASTERN PACIFIC; EMPIRICAL MODELS; EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTIONS; EQUATORIAL REGIONS; GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATIONS; HEAT CONTENTS; INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITIES; INTERNAL DYNAMICS; LINEAR APPROXIMATIONS; LINEAR MODELS; LINEAR REGIMES; MARKOV MODELS; NON LINEARITIES; NON-LINEAR DYNAMICS; OCEAN ATMOSPHERES; OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS; PACIFIC OCEANS; PHASE-LOCKING; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; SEASONAL DEPENDENCES; SEASONAL VARIATIONS; SEASONALITY; SINGULAR VALUES; SPACE AND TIME; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTIONS; SPATIAL EXTENTS; STATISTICAL ATMOSPHERES; STOCHASTIC FORCING; TRANSIENT GROWTHS; WARM POOLS; WESTERN PACIFIC;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; COVARIANCE MATRIX; DYNAMICS; ENTHALPY; FOURIER ANALYSIS; MARKOV PROCESSES; OCEAN ENGINEERING; OCEANOGRAPHY; SEAWATER; SIZE DISTRIBUTION; STOCHASTIC CONTROL SYSTEMS; TROPICS; WIND EFFECTS; WIND STRESS;

STOCHASTIC MODELS;

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; MARKOV CHAIN; NUMERICAL MODEL; STOCHASTICITY;

EID: 65549168692     PISSN: 00224928     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2008JAS2286.1     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Balmaseda, M. A., D. L. T. Anderson, and M. K. Davey, 1994: ENSO prediction using a dynamical ocean model coupled to statistical atmospheres. Tellus, 46A, 497-511.
2. Battisti, D. S., 1988: Dynamics and thermodynamics of a warming event in a coupled tropical atmosphere-ocean model. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2889-2919.
3. Blanke, B., J. D. Neelin, and D. Gutzler, 1997: Estimating the effect of stochastic wind stress forcing on ENSO irregularity. J. Climate, 10, 1473-1486.
4. Blumenthal, M. B., 1991: Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 4, 766-784.
5. Buizza, R., and T. N. Palmer, 1995: The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1434-1456.
6. Cai, M., E. Kalnay, and Z. Toth, 2003: Bred vectors of the Zebiak-Cane model and their potential application to ENSO predictions. J. Climate, 16, 40-56.
7. Chang, P., B. Wang, T. Li, and L. Ji, 1994: Interactions between the seasonal cycle and the Southern Oscillation - Frequency entrainment and chaos in an intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 21, 2817-2820.
8. Chen, Y.-Q., D. S. Battisti, T. N. Palmer, J. Barsugli, and E. S. Sarachik, 1997: A study of the predictability of tropical Pacific SST in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model using singular vector analysis: The role of the annual cycle and the ENSO cycle. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 831-845.
9. Eckert, C., and M. Latif, 1997: Predictability of a stochastically forced hybrid coupled model of El Niño. J. Climate, 10, 1488-1504.
10. Fan, Y., M. R. Allen, D. L. T. Anderson, and M. A. Balmaseda, 2000: How predictability depends on the nature of uncertainty in initial conditions in a coupled model of ENSO. J. Climate, 13, 3298-3313.
11. Farrell, B. F., 1988: Optimal excitation of neutral Rossby waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 163-172.
12. Farrell, B. F., and P. J. Ioannou, 2001: Accurate low-dimensional approximation of the linear dynamics of fluid flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2771-2789.
13. Flügel, M., and P. Chang, 1998: Does the predictability of ENSO depend on the seasonal cycle? J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 3230-3243.
14. Flügel, M., P. Chang, and C. Penland, 2004: The role of stochastic forcing in modulating ENSO predictability. J. Climate, 17, 3125-3140.
15. Jin, F.-F., 1997: An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: Conceptual model. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 811-829.
16. Jin, F.-F., J. D. Neelin, and M. Ghil, 1994: El Niño on the Devil's staircase: Annual subharmonic steps to chaos. Science, 264, 70-72.
17. Johnson, S. D., D. S. Battisti, and E. S. Sarachik, 2000a: Empirically derived Markov models and prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 13, 3-17.
18. Johnson, S. D., D. S. Battisti, and E. S. Sarachik, 2000b: Seasonality in an empirically derived Markov model of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 13, 3327-3335.
19. Kalnay, E., and Z. Toth, 1994: Removing growing errors in the analysis cycle. Preprints, 10th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Portland, OR, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 212-215.
20. Kessler, W. S., and R. Kleeman, 2000: Rectification of Madden-Julian oscillation into the ENSO cycle. J. Climate, 13, 3560-3575.
21. Kestin, T. S., D. J. Karoly, J.-I. Yano, and N. A. Rayner, 1998: Time-frequency variability of ENSO and stochastic simulations. J. Climate, 11, 2258-2272.
22. Kinter, J. L., III, and Coauthors, 1997: The COLA Atmosphere-Biosphere General Circulation Model. Volume 1: Formulation. Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Tech. Rep. 51, 46 pp.
23. Kirtman, B. P., 1997: Oceanic Rossby wave dynamics and the ENSO period in a coupled model. J. Climate, 10, 1690-1704.
24. Kirtman, B. P., 2003: The COLA anomaly coupled model: Ensemble ENSO prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2324-2341.
25. Kirtman, B. P., and J. Shukla, 2002: Interactive coupled ensemble: A new coupling strategy for GCMs. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1367, doi:10.1029/2002GL014834.
26. Kirtman, B. P., Y. Fan, and E. K. Schneider, 2002a: The COLA global coupled and anomaly coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. J. Climate, 15, 2301-2320.
27. Kirtman, B. P., J. Shukla, M. Balmaseda, N. Graham, C. Penland, Y. Xue, and S. Zebiak, 2002b: Current status of ENSO forecast skill: A report to the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Numerical Experimentation Group (NEG). CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction. [Available online at http://www.clivar.org/ publications/wg_reports/wgsip/nino3/report.htm.]
28. Kirtman, B. P., K. Pegion, and S. M. Kinter, 2005: Internal atmospheric dynamics and the tropical Indo-Pacific climate variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2220-2233.
29. Kleeman, R., and S. B. Power, 1994: Limits to predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model due to atmospheric noise. Tellus, 46A, 529-540.
30. Kleeman, R., and A. M. Moore, 1997: A theory for the limitation of ENSO predictability due to stochastic atmospheric transients. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 753-767.
31. Kleeman, R., Y. Tang, and A. M. Moore, 2003: The calculation of climatically relevant singular vectors in the presence of weather noise as applied to the ENSO problem. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 2865-2868.
32. Lacarra, J.-F., and O. Talagrand, 1988: Short-range evolution of small perturbations in a barotropic model. Tellus, 40A, 81-95.
33. Latif, M., and N. E. Graham, 1992: How much predictive skill is contained in the thermal structure of an oceanic GCM? J. Phys. Oceanogr., 22, 951-962.
34. Lau, K.-M., 1985: Elements of a stochastic-dynamical theory of the long-term variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 1552-1558.
35. Lorenz, E. N., 1965: A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model. Tellus, 17, 321-333.
36. Molteni, F., and T. N. Palmer, 1993: Predictability and finite time instability of the northern winter circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 269-298.
37. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1996: The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 1405-1446.
38. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1997a: The singular vectors of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. Part I: Thermodynamics, energetics, and error growth. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 953-981.
39. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1997b: The singular vectors of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. Part II: Sensitivity studies and dynamical significance. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 983-1006.
40. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1999a: Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation. J. Climate, 12, 1199-1220.
41. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1999b: The non-normal nature of El Niño and intraseasonal variability. J. Climate, 12, 2965-2982.
42. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 2001: The differences between the optimal perturbations of coupled models of ENSO. J. Climate, 14, 138-163.
43. Moore, A. M., J. Vialard, A. Weaver, D. L. T. Anderson, R. Kleeman, and J. R. Johnson, 2003: The role of air-sea interaction in controlling the optimal perturbations of low-frequency tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere modes. J. Climate, 16, 951-968.
44. Münnich, M., M. A. Cane, and S. E. Zebiak, 1991: A study of self-excited oscillations in a tropical ocean-atmosphere system. Part II: Nonlinear cases. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 1238-1248.
45. Pacanowski, R. C., and S. M. Griffies, 1998: MOM 3.0 manual. NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Ocean Group Tech. Rep. 4, 608 pp.
46. Palmer, T. N., R. Buizza, F. Molteni, Y.-Q. Chen, and S. Corti, 1994: Singular vectors and the predictability of weather and climate. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, 348A, 459-475.
47. Penland, C., 1989: Random forcing and forecasting using principal oscillation pattern analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 2165-2185.
48. Penland, C., 1996: A stochastic model of Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Physica D, 98, 534-558.
49. Penland, C., and T. Magorian, 1993: Prediction of Niño-3 sea surface temperature anomalies using linear inverse modeling. J. Climate, 6, 1067-1076.
50. Penland, C., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1995: The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 8, 1999-2024.
51. Schopf, P. S., and M. J. Suarez, 1988: Vacillations in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 549-566.
52. Suarez, M. J., and P. S. Schopf, 1988: A delayed action oscillator for ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 3283-3287.
53. Thompson, C. J., 1998: Initial conditions for optimal growth in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 537-557.
54. Thompson, C. J., and D. S. Battisti, 2000: A linear stochastic dynamical model of ENSO. Part I: Model development. J. Climate, 13, 2818-2832.
55. Thompson, C. J., and D. S. Battisti, 2001: A linear stochastic dynamical model of ENSO. Part II: Analysis. J. Climate, 14, 445-466.
56. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319.
57. Tziperman, E., M. A. Cane, and S. E. Zebiak, 1995: Irregularity and locking to the seasonal cycle in an ENSO prediction model as explained by the quasiperiodicity route to chaos. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 293-306.
58. Vallis, G. K., 1988: Conceptual models of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 13979-13991.
59. Vimont, D. J., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, 2003: The seasonal footprinting mechanism in the Pacific: Implications for ENSO. J. Climate, 16, 2668-2675.
60. Wang, B., A. Barcilon, and Z. Fang, 1999: Stochastic dynamics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 5-23.
61. Wyrtki, K., 1985: Water displacements in the Pacific and the genesis of El Niño cycles. J. Geophys. Res., 90, 7129-7132.
62. Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, and M. B. Blumenthal, 1994: On the prediction of ENSO: A study with a low-order Markov model. Tellus, 46A, 512-528.
63. Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, and S. E. Zebiak, 1997a: Predictability of a coupled model of ENSO using singular vector analysis. Part I: Optimal growth in seasonal background and ENSO cycles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2043-2056.
64. Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, and T. N. Palmer, 1997b: Predictability of a coupled model of ENSO using singular vector analysis. Part II: Optimal growth and forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2057-2073.
65. Xue, Y., A. Leetmaa, and M. Ji, 2000: ENSO prediction with Markov models: The impact of sea level. J. Climate, 13, 849-871.
66. Zavala-Garay, J., A. M. Moore, C. L. Perez, and R. Kleeman, 2003: The response of a coupled model of ENSO to observed estimates of stochastic forcing. J. Climate, 16, 2827-2842.
67. Zebiak, S. E., 1989: Oceanic heat content variability and El Niño cycles. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 19, 475-486.
68. Zebiak, S. E., and M. A. Cane, 1987: A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2262-2278.