Population-based simulations of influenza pandemics: Validity and significance for public health policy

Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Volumn 87, Issue 4, 2009, Pages 305-311

  Timpka, Toomas ^a   Eriksson, Henrik ^a   Gursky, Elin A ^b   Nyce, James M ^c   Morin, Magnus ^d   Jenvald, Johan ^d   Stromgren, Magnus ^e   Holm, Einar ^e   Ekberg, Joakim ^a  

^a LINKÖPING UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^b ANSER   (United States)

^c BALL STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d VSL Systems AB   (Sweden)

^e UMEÅ UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; EPIDEMIC; HEALTH IMPACT; HEALTH POLICY; INFLUENZA; MODEL VALIDATION; POLICY MAKING; POPULATION MODELING; PUBLIC HEALTH;

ARTICLE; CASE STUDY; HEALTH CARE POLICY; HUMAN; INFLUENZA; MEDICAL DECISION MAKING; PANDEMIC; PREDICTIVE VALIDITY; PUBLIC HEALTH; SIMULATION; SOCIAL STRUCTURE; SWEDEN; VALIDITY; VIRUS TRANSMISSION;

EURASIA; EUROPE; NORTHERN EUROPE; SCANDINAVIA; SWEDEN;

EID: 65349103934     PISSN: 00429686     EISSN: 15640604     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2471/BLT.07.050203     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Mounier-Jack S, Coker RJ. How prepared is Europe for a pandemic influenza? Analysis of national plans. Lancet 2006;367:1405-11. PMID:16650650 doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68511-5
2. Uscher- Pines L, Omer SB, Barnett DJ, Burke TA, Balicer RD. Priority setting for pandemic influenza: an analysis of national preparedness plans. PLoS Med 2006;3:e436. PMID:17048982 doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030436
3. Groeneveld K, van der Noordaa J. Use of antiviral agents and other measures in an influenza pandemic. Neth J Med 2005;63:339-43. PMID:16244380
4. Hampson AW. Surveillance for pandemic influenza. J Infect Dis 1997;176 Suppl 1 ;S8-13. PMID:9240687 doi:10.1086/514184
5. Gursky E. Epidemic proportions: building national public health capabilities to meet national security threats. Arlington, VA: ANSER Institute of Homeland Security; 2005.
6. Yasnoff WA, Humphreys BL, Overhage JM, Detmer DE, Brennan PF, Morris RW, et al. A consensus action agenda for achieving the national health information infrastructure. J Am Med Inform Assoc 2004;11:332-8. PMID:15187075 doi:10.1197/jamia.M1616
7. Longini IM Jr, Nizam A, Xu S, Ungchusak K, Hanshaoworakul W, Cummings DA, et al. Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science 2005;309:1083-7. PMID:16079251 doi:10.1126/science.1115717
8. Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, et al. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 2005;437:209-14. PMID:16079797 doi:10.1038/nature04017
9. Colizza V, Barrat A, Barthelemy M, Valleron AJ, Vespignani A. Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: baseline case and containment interventions. PLoS Med 2007;4:e13. PMID:17253899 doi:10.1371/journal. pmed.0040013
10. Glass LM, Glass RJ. Social contact networks for the spread of pandemic influenza in children and teenagers. BMC Public Health 2008;8:61. PMID:18275603 doi:10.1186/1471-2458-8-61
11. Haddon W Jr. A logical framework for categorizing highway safety phenomena and activity. J Trauma 1972;12:193-207. PMID:5012817 doi:10.1097/00005373-197203000-00002
12. Veerman JL, Mackenbach JP, Barendregt JJ. Validity of predictions in health impact assessment. J Epidemiol Community Health 2007;61:362-6. PMID:17372299 doi:10.1136/jech.2006.047480
13. Svoboda T, Henry B, Shulman L, Kennedy E, Rea E, Ng W, et al. Public health measures to control the spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome during the outbreak in Toronto. N Engl J Med 2004;350:2352-61. PMID:15175437 doi:10.1056/NEJMoa032111
14. Jones J, Hunter D. Consensus methods for medical and health services research. BMJ 1995;311:376-80. PMID:7640549
15. Kemm J. Perspectives on health impact assessment. Bull World Health Organ 2003;81:387. PMID:12894317
16. Knobler SL, Mack A, Mahmoud A, Lemon SM, eds. The threat of pandemic influenza: are we ready? Washington, DC: The National Academies Press; 2005.
17. Wang TH, Wei KC, Hsiung CA, Maloney SA, Eidex RB, Posey DL, et al. Optimizing severe acute respiratory syndrome response strategies: lessons learned from quarantine. Am J Public Health 2007;97 Suppl 1 ;S98-100. PMID:17413071 doi:10.2105/AJPH.2005.082115
18. Mackler N, Wilkerson W, Cinti S. Will first-responders show up for work during a pandemic? Lessons from a smallpox vaccination survey of paramedics. Disaster Manag Response 2007;5:45-8. PMID:17517362 doi:10.1016/j.dmr. 2007.02.002
19. Davis T, ed. A failure of initiative: the final report of the select bipartisan committee to investigate the preparation for and response to hurricane Katrina. Washington, DC: US House of Representatives; 2006.
20. Qureshi K, Gershon RR, Sherman MF, Straub T, Gebbie E, McCollum M, et al. Health care workers' ability and willingness to report to duty during catastrophic disasters. J Urban Health 2005;82:378-88. PMID:16000654
21. Shiao JS, Koh D, Lo LH, Lim MK, Guo YL. Factors predicting nurses' consideration of leaving their job during the SARS outbreak. Nurs Ethics 2007;14:5-17. PMID:17334166 doi:10.1177/0969733007071350
22. Epstein JM, Goedecke DM, Yu F, Morris RJ, Wagener DK, Bobashev GV. Controlling pandemic flu: the value of international air travel restrictions. PLoS One 2007;2:e401. PMID:17476323 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0000401
23. Gilbert N, Troitzsch K. Simulations for the social scientist, 2nd ed. Maidenhead: Open University Press; 2005.
24. Brouwers L, Ekenberg L, Hansson K, Danielsson M. Multi-criteria decision- making of policy strategies with public-private re-insurance systems. Risk Decis Policy 2004;9:23-45. doi:10.1080/14664530490429535
25. Holm E, Lindgren U, Häggström Lundevaller E, Strömgren M. SVERIGE. In: Gupta A, Harding A, eds. Modelling our future: population ageing, health and aged care. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science; 2007. pp. 543-50.
26. Riley S. Large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious disease. Science 2007;316:1298-301. PMID:17540894 doi:10.1126/science.1134695
27. Hägerstrand T. Time geography: focus on the corporeality of men, society and environment. In: Aida S, ed. The science and praxis of complexity. New York, NY: United Nations University; 1985.
28. Ellegård K, Vilhelmson B. Home as a pocket of local order: everyday activities and the friction of distance. Geogr Ann 2004;86:281-96. doi:10.1111/ j.0435-3684.2004.00168.x
29. Durkheim E. Methods of explanation and analysis. In: Giddens A, ed. Emile Durkheim: selected writings. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 1972. pp. 69-88.
30. Weber M. Economy and society: an outline of interpretive sociology. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press; 1978.
31. Giddens A. New rules of sociological method. New York, NY: Basic Books; 1976.
32. Ferguson N. Capturing human behaviour. Nature 2007;446:733. PMID:17429381 doi:10.1038/446733a
33. Longini IM Jr, Halloran ME, Nizam A, Yang Y. Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am J Epidemiol 2004;159:623-33. PMID:15033640 doi:10.1093/aje/kwh092
34. Haber MJ, Shay DK, Davis XM, Patel R, Jin X, Weintraub E, et al. Effectiveness of interventions to reduce contact rates during a simulated influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis 2007;13:581-9. PMID:17553273
35. Aligica PD. Scenarios and the growth of knowledge: notes on the epistemic element in scenario building. Technol Forecast Soc Change 2005;72:815-24. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2005.01.001
36. Börjeson L, Höjer M, Dreborg K, Ekvall T, Finnveden G. Scenario types and techniques: towards a user's guide. Futures 2006;38:723-39. doi:10.1016/j. futures.2005.12.002
37. O'Toole T, Mair M, Inglesby TV. Shining light on "Dark Winter". Clin Infect Dis 2002;34:972-83. PMID:11880964 doi:10.1086/339909
38. Martino J. Technological forecasting for decision-making. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill; 1993.
39. Burke DS, Epstein JM, Cummings DA, Parker JI, Cline KC, Singa RM, et al. Individual-based computational modeling of smallpox epidemic control strategies. Acad Emerg Med 2006;13:1142-9. PMID:17085740
40. Moss S, Edmonds B. Sociology and simulation: statistical and qualitative cross-validation. Am J Sociol 2005;110:1095-131. doi:10.1086/427320
41. Volz E, Meyers LA. Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in dynamic contact networks. In: Proc Royal Soc Biol Sci 2007;274:2925-33. doi:10.1098/rspb.2007.1159
42. Ball F, Neal P. Network epidemic models with two levels of mixing. Math Biosci 2008;212:69-87. PMID:18280521 doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2008.01.001
43. Wallinga J, Teunis P, Kretzschmar M. Using data on social contacts to estimate age-specific transmission parameters for respiratory-spread infectious agents. Am J Epidemiol 2006;164:936-44. PMID:16968863 doi:10.1093/ aje/kwj317
44. Halloran ME, Ferguson NM, Eubank S, Longini IM Jr, Cummings DA, Lewis B, et al. Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2008;105:4639-44 PMID:18332436 doi:10.1073/pnas.0706849105