Bayesian model averaging's problematic treatment of extreme weather and a paradigm shift that fixes it

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 136, Issue 12, 2008, Pages 4641-4652

  Bishop, Craig H ^a   Shanley, Kevin T ^b  

^a NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^b Clarkson University   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING; CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATIONS; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; ENSEMBLE FORECASTS; ENSEMBLE MEMBERS; ENSEMBLE POSTPROCESSINGS; EXTREME WEATHERS; LIKELIHOOD DISTRIBUTIONS; NEW APPROACHES; PARADIGM SHIFTS; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS; PROBABILITY DENSITIES; PROBABILITY FORECASTS; STATE ESTIMATES; STOCHASTIC PERTURBATIONS; WEATHER FORECASTS;

BAYESIAN NETWORKS; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; STATE ESTIMATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION;

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CLIMATE MODELING; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; ESTIMATION METHOD; EXPERIMENTAL STUDY; PARADIGM SHIFT; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; RELIABILITY ANALYSIS; THEORETICAL STUDY; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 64149099829     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2008MWR2565.1     Document Type: Article

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