Dynamics in the specification of tourism demand models

Tourism Economics

Volumn 15, Issue 1, 2009, Pages 23-39

  Morley, Clive L ^a  

^a RMIT UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

ARIMA; Dynamics; Econometric models; Tourism demand;

Indexed keywords

DEMAND ANALYSIS; ECONOMETRICS; MODEL; TOURISM DEVELOPMENT;

EID: 63849193877     PISSN: 13548166     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5367/000000009787536654     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Akal, M. (2004), 'Forecasting Turkey's tourism revenues by ARMAX model', Tourism Management, Vol 25, pp 565-580.
2. Cho, V. (2001), 'Tourism forecasting and its relationship with leading economic indicators', Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Research, Vol 25, No 4, pp 399-420.
3. Croes, R.R., and Vanegas, M. (2005), An econometric study of tourist arrivals in Aruba and its implications', Tourism Management, Vol 26, No 6, pp 879-890.
4. Crouch, G.I., and Shaw, R.N. (1990), 'Determinants of international tourist flows: findings from 30 years of empirical research', Management Papers No 29, Graduate School of Management, Monash University, Melbourne.
5. Darnell, A.C., and Johnson, P.S. (2001), 'Repeat visits to attractions: a preliminary economic analysis', Tourism Management, Vol 22, pp 119-126.
6. Divisekera, S., and Kulendran, N. (2006), 'Economic effects of advertising on tourism demand: a case study', Tourism Economics, Vol 12, pp 187-205
7. Dritsakis, N. (2004), 'Cointegration analysis of German and British tourism demand for Greece' Tourism Management, Vol 25, pp 111-119.
8. Engle, R.F., and Granger, C.W.J. (1987), 'Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing', Econometrica, Vol 55, pp 251-276.
9. Fuji, E.T., and Mak, J. (1981), 'Forecasting tourism demand: some methodological issues', Annals of Regional Science, Vol 15 (July), pp 72-82.
10. Gallet, C.A., and Braun, B.M. (2001), 'Gradual switching regression estimates of tourism demand', Annals of Tourism Research, Vol 28, pp 503-507.
11. Gaŕm-Muñoz, T. (2007), 'German demand for rourism in Spain', Tourism Management, Vol 28, pp 12-22.
12. George, B.P., and George, B.P. (2004), 'Past visits and the intention to revisit a destination: place attachment as the mediator and novelty seeking as the moderator', Journal of Tourism Studies, Vol 15, No 2, pp 51-66.
13. Kozak, M. (2001), 'Repeater's behaviour at two distinct destinations', Annals of Tourism Research, Vol 28, No 3, pp 784-807.
14. Kulendran, N., and Divisekera, S. (2004), 'The estimation of marketing expenditure elasticities', in Chin, K., Hsu, C.H.C., and Okamoto, N., eds, Globalisation and Tourism Research: East Meets West, Asia Pacific Tourism Association, Hong Kong, pp 325-331.
15. Kulendran, N., and Witt, S.F. (2003), 'Forecasting the demand for international business travel', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 41, pp 261-271.
16. Lehto, X.Y., O'Leary, J.T., and Morrison, A.M. (2004), 'The effect of prior experience on vacation behaviour', Annals of Tourism Research, Vol 31, No 4, pp 801-818.
17. Li, G., Song, H., and Witt, S.F. (2005), 'Recent developments in econometric modelling and forecasting', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 44, pp 82-99.
18. Li, G., Wong, K.K.F., Song, H., and Witt, S.F. (2006), 'Tourism demand forecasting: a time varying parameter error correction model', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 45, pp 175-185.
19. Mak, J., Moncur, J., and Yonamine, D. (1977), 'Determinants of visiror expenditures and visitor lengths of stay: a cross-section analysis of US visitors to Hawaii', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 15, No 3, pp 5-8.
20. Morley, C.L. (1991), 'Modeling international tourism demand: model specification and structure', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 30, No 1, pp 40-44.
21. Morley, C.L. (1992), 'A micro-economic theory of international tourism demand', Annals of TourismResearch, Vol 19, pp 250-267.
22. Morley, C.L. (1996), 'A comparison of three methods for estimating tourism demand models', Tourism Economics, Vol 2, pp 223-234.
23. Morley, C.L. (1998), 'A dynamic internarional demand model', Annals of Tourism Research, Vol 25, No 1, pp 250-267.
24. Morley, C.L. (2000), 'Demand modelling methodologies: integration and other issues', Tourism Economics, Vol 6, No 1, pp 5-20.
25. Oh, C.-O., and Morzuch, B.J. (2005), 'Evaluating time-series models to forecast the demand for tourism in Singapore: comparing within-sample and postsample results', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 43, pp 404-413.
26. Petrick, J.F. (2004), 'First timers' and repeaters' perceived value'', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 43, pp 29-38.
27. Rosselló, J., Aguiló, E., and Riera, A. (2005), 'Modeling tourism demand dynamics', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 44, pp 111-116.
28. Salman, A.K. (2003), 'Estimating tourist demand through coinregration analysis: Swedish data', Current Issues in Tourism, Vol 6, No 4, pp 323-339.
29. Smeral, E., and Wüger, M. (2005), 'Does complexity matter? Methods for improving forecasring accuracy in tourism: rhe case of Austria', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 44, pp 100-110.
30. Song, H., and Turner, L. (2006), 'Tourism demand forecasring', in Dwyer, L., and Forsyth, P., eds, International Handbook on the Economics of Tourism, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp 89-114.
31. Song, H., and Witt, S.F. (2003), 'Tourism forecasting: the general-to-specific approach', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 42, No 1, pp 65-74.
32. Song, H., and Wong, K.K.F. (2003), 'Tourism demand modelling: a time-varying parameter approach', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 42, pp 57-67.
33. Webber, A.G. (2001), 'Exchange rate volatility and cointegration in tourism demand', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 39, pp 398-405.
34. Witt, S.F., and Martin, C.A. (1987), 'Econometric models for forecasting international tourism demand', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 29, No 3, pp 23-30.