Systematic errors of QPF in low-mountain regions as revealed by MM5 simulations

Meteorologische Zeitschrift

Volumn 17, Issue 6, 2008, Pages 903-919

  Schwitalla, Thomas ^a   Bauer, Hans Stefan ^a   Wulfmeyer, Volker ^a   Zängl, Günther ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HOHENHEIM   (Germany)

^b DEUTSCHER WETTERDIENST   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COMMUNITY MODEL; CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION; DEEP CONVECTION; FORECASTING SYSTEM; GERMANY; GRID SIZE; HORIZONTAL GRID SPACING; HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION; MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST; MESOSCALE; MODEL CONFIGURATION; MODEL ERRORS; MOISTURE FIELD; MOUNTAIN RANGES; MOUNTAIN REGIONS; NUMERICAL SIMULATION; OPERATIONAL DATA; PARAMETERIZED; RAIN RATES; SENSITIVITY STUDIES; SOIL MODEL; SURFACE NETWORKS; SURFACE TEMPERATURES; TIMING ERRORS;

BOUNDARY LAYERS; ERRORS; GEOLOGIC MODELS; LANDFORMS; NATURAL CONVECTION; RAIN; SYSTEMATIC ERRORS; WATER VAPOR;

SIMULATORS;

BOUNDARY LAYER; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CONVECTIVE SYSTEM; ERROR ANALYSIS; EXPERIMENTAL STUDY; MOUNTAIN REGION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PARAMETERIZATION; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; TERRAIN; WATER VAPOR; WEATHER FORECASTING;

CENTRAL EUROPE; EURASIA; EUROPE; GERMANY;

EID: 63449118974     PISSN: 09412948     EISSN: 16101227     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0338     Document Type: Article

References (77)

1. AOSHIMA, F., A. BEHRENDT, H.-S. BAUER, V. WULFMEYER, 2008: Statistics of convective initiation by use of meteosat-rapid scanning during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS). - Meteorol. Z. 17, 921-930.
2. BARTHLOTT, C., U. CORSMEIER, C. MEISSNER, F. BRAUN, C. KOTTMEIER, 2006: The influence of mesoscale circulation systems on triggering convective cells over complex terrain. - Atmos. Res. 81, 150-175.
3. BERG, L.K., S. ZHONG, 2005: Sensitivity of MM5-simulated boundary layer characteristics to turbulence parameterizations. - J. Appl. Meteor. 44, 1467-1483.
4. BEVIS, M., S. BUSINGER, T.A. HERRING, C. ROCKEN, R.A. ANTHES, R.H. WARE, 1992: Gps meteorology remote sensing of atmospheric water vapor using th global positioning system. - J. Geophys. Res. 97, 15787-15801.
5. BLACKADAR, A. K., 1976: Modeling the nocturnal boundary layer. - In: Preprints Third Symp. on Atmospheric Turbulence, Diffusion, and Air Quality, Raleigh, 46-49, NC. Amer. Meteor. Soc.
6. BLAIR, S., J. MAILHOT, 2001: Impact of horizontal resolution on the numerical simulation of a midlatitude squall line: Implicit versus explicit condensation. - Mon. Wea. Rev 129, 2362-2376.
7. BRIGHT, D. R., S. L. MULLEN, 2002: The sensitivity of the numerical simulation of the southwest monsoon boundary layer to the choice of pbl turbulence parameterization in MM5. - Wea. Forecast. 17, 99-114.
8. BROWNING, K.A., A.M. BLYTH, P.A. CLARK, U. CORSMEIER, C.J. MORCRETTE, J.L. AGNEW, S.P. BALLARD, D. BAMBER, C. BARTHLOTT, L.J. BENNETT, K.M. BESWICK, M. BITTER, K.E. BOZIER, B.J. BROOKS, C.G. COLLIER, F. DAVIES, B. DENY, M.A. DIXON, T. FEUERLE, R.M. FORBES, C. GAFFARD, M.D. GRAY, R. HANKERS, T.J. HEWISON, N. KALTHOFF, S. KHODAYAR, M. KOHLER, C. KOTTMEIER, S. KRAUT, M. KUNZ, D.N. LADD, H. W. LEAN, J. LENFANT, Z. LI, J. MARSHAM, J. MCGREGOR, S. D. MOBBS, J. NICOL, E. NORTON, D.J. PARKER, F. PERRY, M. RAMATSCHI, H.M.A. RICKETTS, N.M. ROBERTS, A. RUSSELL, H. SCHULZ, E.C. SLACK, G. VAUGHAN, J. WAIGHT, D.P. WAREING, R.J. WATSON, A.R. WEBB, A. WIESER, 2007: The convective storm initiation project. - Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 88, 1939-1955.
9. CARBONE, R.E., J.D. TUTTLE, D.A. AHIJEVYCH, S.B. TRIER, 2002: Inferences of predictability associated with warm season precipitation episodes. - Atmos. Sci. 59, 2033-2056.
10. CHEN, F., J. DUDHIA, 2001a: Coupling an advanced landsurface/ hydrology model with the penn state NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model implementation and sensitivity. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 129, 569-585.
11. CHEN, F., J. DUDHIA, 2001b: Coupling an advanced land-surface/ hydrology model with the penn state NCAR MM5 modeling system. part II: Preliminary model validation. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 129, 587-604.
12. COLLE, B.A., C.F. MASS, 2000: The 5-9 February 1996 flooding event over the Pacific Northwest: Sensitivity studies and evaluation of the MM5 precipitation forecasts. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 132, 593-617.
13. COLLE, B.A., J.B. OLSON, J.S. TONGUE, 2003: Multiseason verification of the MM5. Part II: Evaluation of high-resolution precipitation forecasts over the northeastern united states. - Wea. Forecast. 18, 458-480.
14. COSTER, A.J., A.E. NIELL, F.S. SOLHEIM, V.B. MENDES, P.C. TOOR, R.B. LANGLEY, C.A. RUGGLES, 1996: The westford water vapor experiment: Use of GPS to determine total precipitable water vapor. - In: Proceedings The Institute of Navigation 52nd Annual Meeting, 529-538. The Institute of Navigation, Alexandria, VA.
15. DAMRATH, U., 2004: Verifikation von niederschlagsvorhersagen - Treffen zum SPP am 08.06.2004. - Deutscher Wetterdienst, Referat FE15, Offenbach.
16. DAS, S., S.V. SINGH, E.N. RAJAGOPAL, R. GALL, 2003: Mesoscale modelling for mountain weather forecasting over the Himalaya. - Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 84, 1237-1244.
17. DAVIES-JONES, R.P., 1983: An accurate theoretical approximation for adiabatic condensation temperature. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 111, 1119-1121.
18. DENG, A., D.R. STAUFFER, 2006: On improving 4-km mesoscale model simulations. - J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. 45, 361-381.
19. DOMS, G., U. SCHÄTTLER, J.-P. SCHULZ, 2003: Kurze Beschreibung des Lokal-Modells LM und seiner Datenbanken auf dem Datenserver (DAS) des DWD. - Deutscher Wetterdienst, Geschäftsbereich Forschung und Entwicklung, Offenbach, Germany.
20. DUDHIA, J., 1989: Numerical study of convection observed during winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model. - J. Atmos. Sci. 46, 3077-3107.
21. DUDHIA, J., 1996: A multi-layer soil temperature model for MM5. - In: Preprints, The Sixth PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users' Workshop, Boulder/CO, Boulder/CO. NCAR.
22. EBERT, E.E., U. DAMRATH, W. WERGEN, M.E. BALDWIN, 2003: The WGNE assessment of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts. - Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 84, 481-492.
23. EISENMANN, M., 2004: Güte quantitativer Niederschlagsvorhersagen mit dem Lokal-Modell unter konvektiven Bedingungen. - Master's Thesis, University Karlsruhe/Research Center Karlsruhe.
24. FRITSCH, J., C. CHAPPELL, 1980: Numerical prediction of convectively driven mesoscale pressure systems. Part I: Convective parameterization. - J. Atmos. Sci. 37, 1722-1733.
25. FRITSCH, J.M., R.E. CARBONE, 2004: Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season: A USWRP research and development strategy. - Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 85, 955-965
26. GENDT, G., G. DICK, G. REIGBER, M. TOMASSINI, Y. LIU, M. RAMATSCHI, 2004: Near real time GPS water vapor monitoring for numerical weather prediction in germany. - J. Meteor. Soc. Japan 82, 361-370.
27. GOCHIS, D.J., W.J. SHUTTLEWORTH, Z.L. YANG, 2002: Sensitivity of the modeled North American monsoon regional climate to convective parameterization. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 130, 1282-1298.
28. GRAMS, J.S., W.A. GALLUS, S.E. KOCH, L.S. WHARTON, A. LOUGHE, E.E. EBERT, 2006: The use of a modified Ebert-Mcbride technique to evaluate mesoscale model QPF as a function of convective system morphology during IHOP 2002. - Wea. Forecast. 21, 288-306.
29. GRELL, G., J. DUDHIA, D. STAUFFER, 1995: A Description of the Fifth-Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). - NCAR Tech Notes 398+STR, NCAR, Boulder/CO.
30. GRUBIŠSIĆ, V., R.K. VELLORE, A.W. HUGGINS, 2005: Quantitative precipitation forecasting of wintertime storms in the Sierra Nevada: Sensitivity to the microphysical parameterization and horizontal resolution. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 133, 2834-2859.
31. HENSE, A., G. ADRIAN, C. KOTTMEIER, C. SIMMER, V. WULFMEYER, 2006: The German Priority Program SPP1167 PQP Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting: An overview. - 2nd International Symposium on Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) and Hydrology, Boulder, CO, USA, June 4-8, 2006.
32. HONG, S. Y., H.L. PAN, 1996: Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast model. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 124, 2322-2339.
33. JANJIĆ, Z.I., 1990: A high-resolution model of the planetary boundary layer - sensitivity tests and comparisons with SESAME-79 data. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 118, 1429-1443.
34. JANJIĆ, Z.I., 1994: The step-mountain eta coordinate model: Further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 122, 927-945.
35. KAIN, J.S., 2004: The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization: An update. - J. Appl. Meteor. 43, 170-181.
36. KAIN, J.S., J.M. FRITSCH, 1990: A one-dimensional entraining/ detraining plume model and its application in convective parameterization. - J. Atmos. Sci. 47, 2784-2802.
37. KAIN, J.S., J.M. FRITSCH, 1993: Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: The Kain-Fritsch scheme. - Meteor. Monogr. 24, 165-170.
38. KOLMOGOROV, A., 1941: Interpolated and extrapolated stationary random sequences. - Izestia an SSSR, seriya mathematicheskaya 5, 85-95.
39. KUNZ, M., C. KOTTMEIER, 2006: Orographic enhancement of precipitation over low mountain ranges, Part II: Simulation of heavy precipitation events over southwest Germany. - J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. 45, 1041-1055.
40. LOUIS, J.-F., 1979: A parametric model of vertical eddy fluxes in the atmosphere. - Bound.-Layer Meteor. 17, 187-202.
41. MAJEWSKI, D., D. LIERMANN, P. PROHL, B. RITTER, M. BUCHHOLD, T. HANISCH, G. PAUL, W. WERGEN, J. BAUMGARDNER, 2002: The operational global icosahedral-hexagonal gridpoint model gme: Description and high-resolution tests. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 130, 319-338.
42. MCBRIDE, J.L., E.E. EBERT, 2000: Verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts from operational numerical weather prediction models over australia. - Wea. Forecast. 15, 103-121.
43. MEISSNER, C., N. KALTHOFF, M. KUNZ, U. CORSMEIER, G. ADRIAN, submitted: Initialization of deep convection over low mountain ranges. - Atmos. Res.
44. MELLOR, G. L., T. YAMADA, 1974: A hierarchy of turbulence closure models for planetary boundary layers. - J. Atmos. Sci. 31, 1791-1806.
45. MELLOR, G.L., T. YAMADA, 1982: Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems. - Rev. Geophys. 20, 851-875.
46. MIAO, J.-F., D. CHEN, K. WYSER, K. BORNE, J. LINDGREN, M.K.S. STRANDEVALL, S. THORSSON, C. ACHBERGER, E. ALMKVIST, 2007: Evaluation of MM5 mesoscale model at local scale for air quality applications over the Swedish west coast: Influence of PBL and LSM parameterizations. - Meteor. Atmos. Phys. 99, 77-103.
47. MLAWER, E.J., S.J. TAUBMAN, P.D. BROWN, M.J. IACONO, S.A. CLOUGH, 1997: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RRTM, a validated correlated k-model for the longwave. - J. Geophys. Res. 102, 16663-16682.
48. RATNAM, J.V., K.K. KUMAR, 2005: Sensitivity of the simulated monsoons of 1987 and 1988 to convective parameterization schemes in MM5. - J. Climate 18, 2724-2743.
49. REISNER, J., R.M. RASMUSSEN, R.T. BRUINTJES, 1998: Explicit forecasting of supercooled liquid water in winter storms using the MM5 mesoscale model. - Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 124, 1071-1107.
50. RICHARD, E., A. BUZZI, G. ZÄNGL, 2007: Quantitative precipitation forecasting in the alps: The advances achieved by the mesoscale alpine program.. - Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 133, 831-846.
51. RITTER, B., J. F. GELEYN, 1992: A comprehensive radiation scheme for numerical weather prediction models with potential applications in climate simulations. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 120, 303-325.
52. ROTACH, M. W., D. ZARDI, 2007: On the boundary layer structure over highly complex terrain: Key findings from MAP. - Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 133, 937-948.
53. ROTACH, M. W., M. ARPAGAUS, M. DORNINGER, C. HEGG, A. MONTANI, R. RANZI, F. BOUTTIER, A. BUZZI, G. FRUSTACI, K. MYLNE, E. RICHARD, A. ROSSA, C. SCHÄR, M. STAUDINGER, H. VOLKERT, V. WULFMEYER, P. AMBROSETTI, F. AMENT, C. APPENZELLER, H.-S. BAUER, S. DAVOLIO, M. DENHARD, L. FONTANNAZ, J. FRICK, F. FUNDEL, U. GERMANN, A. HERING, C. KEIL, M. LINIGER, C. MARSIGLI, Y. SEITY, M. STOLL, A. WALSER, M. ZAPPA, submitted: MAP D-PHASE: Real-time demonstration of weather forecast quality in the Alpine Region. - Bull. Amer. Meteoror. Soc.
54. ROTUNNO, R., R.A. HOUZE, 2007: Lessons on orographic precipitation from the mesoscale alpine program. - Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 133, 811-830.
55. SCHULTZ, P., 1995: An explicit cloud physics parameterization for operational numerical weather prediction. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 123, 3331-3343.
56. SCHULZ, J.-P., U. SCHÄTTLER, 2005: Kurze Beschreibung des Lokal-Modells LME und seiner Datenbanken auf dem Datenserver des DWD. - Deutscher Wetterdienst, Geschäftsbereich Forschung und Entwicklung, Offenbach, Germany.
57. STEPPELER, D., G. DOMS, U. SCHÄTTLER, H. W. BITZER, A. GASSMANN, U. DAMRATH, G. GREGORIC, 2003: Meso-gamma scale forecasts using the nonhydrostatic model LM. - Meteor. Atmos. Phys. 82, 75-96.
58. TIEDTKE, M., 1989: A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 117, 1779-1800.
59. TIEDTKE, M., 1993: Representation of clouds in large-scale models. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 21, 3040-3061.
60. TROEN, I., L. MAHRT, 1986: A simple model of the atmospheric boundary layer: Sensitivity to surface evaporation. - Bound.-Layer Meteor. 37, 129-148.
61. WARNER, T., H.-S. HSU, 2000: Nested-model simulation of moist convection: The impact of coarse-grid parameterized convection on fine-grid resolved convection. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 128, 2211-2231.
62. WECKWERTH, T.M., D.B. PARSONS, 2006: A review of convection initiation and motivation for IHOP 2002. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 137, 5-22.
63. WECKWERTH, T.M., D.B. PARSONS, S.E. KOCH, J.A. MOORE, M.A. LEMONE, B.B. DEMOZ, C. FLAMANT, B. GEERTS, J. WANG, W.E. FELTZ, 2004: An overview of the international H2O project (IHOP 2002) and some preliminary highlights. - Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 85, 253-277
64. WEISSMANN, M., F.J. BRAUN, L. GANTNER, G. J. MAYR, S. RAHM, O. REITEBUCH, 2005: The alpine mountain-plain circulation: Airborne doppler lidar measurements and numerical simulations. - Mon.Wea. Rev. 133, 3095-3109.
65. WICKERT, J., G. GENDT, 2006: Fernerkundung der Erdatmosphäre mit GPS. - promet 32, 80-88.
66. WIENER, N., 1949: Extrapolation, interpolation and smoothing of stationary time series - John Wiley, New York.
67. WILD, M., E. ROECKNER, 2006: Radiative fluxes in the ECHAM5 general circulation model. - J. Climate 19, 3792-3809.
68. WU, W., A. H. LYNCH, A. RIVERS, 2005: Estimating the uncertainty in a regional climate model related to initial and lateral boundary conditions. - J. Climate 18, 917-933.
69. WULFMEYER, V., A. BEHRENDT, C. KOTTMEIER, U. CORSMEIER, 2005: Convective orographically unduced precipitation study. science overview document (SOD). - Available at www.uni-hohenheim.de/spp-iop/documents/ COPSFieldReport2.pdf
70. WULFMEYER, V., A. BEHRENDT, H.-S. BAUER, C. KOTTMEIER, U. CORSMEIER, A. BLYTH, G. CRAIG, U. SCHUMANN, M. HAGEN, S. CREWELL, P. DI GIROLAMO, C. FLAMANT, M. MILLER, A. MONTANI, S. MOBBS, E. RICHARD, M.W. ROTACH, M. ARPAGAUS, H. RUSSCHENBERG, P. SCHLÜSSEL, M. KÖNIG, V. GÄRTNER, R. STEINACKER, M. DORNINGER, D.D. TURNER, T. WECKWERTH, A. HENSE, C. SIMMER, 2008: The Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study: A research and development project of the world weather research program for improving quantitative precipitation forecasting in low-mountain regions. - Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 89, 1477-1486, DOI 10.1175/2008BAMS2367.1.
71. WYNGAARD, J.C., R.A. BROST, 1984: Top-down and bottom-up diffusion of a scalar in the convective boundary layer. - J. Atmos. Sci. 41, 102-112.
72. ZÄNGL, G., 2002: An improved method for computing horizontal diffusion in a sigma-coordinate model and its application to simulations over mountainous topography. - Mon. Wea. Rev. 130, 1423-1432
73. ZÄNGL, G., 2004a: Numerical simulations of the 12-13 August 2002 flooding event in Eastern Germany. - Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 130, 1921-1940.
74. ZÄNGL, G., 2004b: The sensitivity of simulated orographic precipitation to model components other than cloud microphysics. - Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 130, 1857-1875.
75. ZÄNGL, G., 2007: To what extent does increased model resolution improve simulated precipitation fields? a case study of two north-alpine heavy-rainfall events. - Meteorl. Z. 16, 571-580.
76. ZHANG, D., R.A. ANTHES, 1982: A high-resolution model of the planetary boundary layer - sensitivity tests and comparisons with SESAME-79 data. - J. Appl. Meteor. 21, 1594-1609.
77. ZHANG, D.L., W.Z. ZHENG, 2004: Diurnal cycles of surface winds and temperatures as simulated by five boundary layer parameterizations. - J. Appl. Meteor. 43, 157-169.