Long lead-time streamflow forecasting of the North Platte River incorporating oceanic-atmospheric climate variability

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 368, Issue 1-4, 2009, Pages 131-142

  Soukup, Tyrel L ^a   Aziz, Oubeidillah A ^b   Tootle, Glenn A ^b   Piechota, Thomas C ^c   Wulff, Shaun S ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WYOMING   (United States)

^b University of Tennessee Knoxville   (United States)

^c University of Nevada Las Vegas   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF WYOMING   (United States)

Author keywords

500 mbar geopotential height; Exceedance probability; Sea surface temperatures; Singular value decomposition; Streamflow forecast

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATOLOGY; HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY; NICKEL COMPOUNDS; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; SEAWATER; STREAM FLOW; SURFACE PROPERTIES; WEATHER FORECASTING;

500 MBAR GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT; ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATIONS; ATMOSPHERIC CLIMATES; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATIONS; EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY; HISTORICAL PERIODS; LEAD-TIME; LONG LEADS; NON-PARAMETRIC MODELS; PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATIONS; PLATTE RIVER BASINS; PLATTE RIVERS; PREVIOUS YEARS; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; STREAM FLOW FORECASTING; STREAMFLOW FORECAST; WATER MANAGERS;

SINGULAR VALUE DECOMPOSITION;

AIR-SEA INTERACTION; ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION; CLIMATE VARIATION; EL NINO; GEOPOTENTIAL; PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION; RIVER BASIN; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; STREAMFLOW; WATER MANAGEMENT; WEATHER FORECASTING;

NORTH AMERICA; PLATTE RIVER; UNITED STATES;

EID: 63149155792     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.047     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Blackmon M.L. A climatological spectral study of the 500 mb geopotential height of the northern hemisphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 33 (1976) 1607-1623
2. Blackmon M.L., Wallace J.M., Lau N.C., and Mullen S.L. An observational study of the northern hemisphere wintertime circulation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 34 (1977) 1040-1053
3. Bretherton C.S., Smith C., and Wallace J.M. An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data. Journal of Climate 5 (1992) 541-560
4. Cayan, D.R., Peterson, D.H. (1989). The influence of North Pacific atmospheric circulation on streamflow in the west. In: Aspects of Climate Variability in the Pacific and the Western Americas. Geophysical Monograph Series, vol. 55. American Geophysical Union, pp. 375-397.
5. Cayan D.R., and Webb R.H. El Niño/Southern Oscillation and streamflow in the western United States. El Niño: Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation (1992), Cambridge University Press, New York
6. Elsner J.B., and Schmertmann C.P. Assessing forecast skill through cross validation. Weather and Forecasting. 9 (1994) 619-624
7. Enfield D.B., Mestas-Nuñez A.M., and Trimble P.J. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental US. Geophysical Research Letters 28 10 (2001) 2077-2080
8. Geerts, B., personal communication. Associate Professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Wyoming.
9. Grantz K., Rajagopalan B., Clark M., and Zagona E. A technique for incorporating large-scale climate information in basin-scale ensemble streamflow forecasts. Water Resources Research 41 (2005) W10410
10. Hare S., and Mantua N. Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Progress in Oceanography 47 (2000) 103-145
11. Hunter T., Tootle G., and Piechota T. Oceanic-atmospheric variability and western US snowfall. Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006) L13706 10.1029/2006GL026600
12. Kahya E., and Dracup J.A. US streamflow patterns in relation to the El Niño/southern oscillation. Water Resources Research 29 8 (1993) 2491-2503
13. Kahya E., and Dracup J.A. The influences of Type 1 El Niño and La Niña Events on streamflows in the Pacific Southwest of the United States. Journal of Climate 7 6 (1994) 965-976
14. Kahya E., and Dracup J.A. The relationships between US streamflow and La Niña events. Water Resources Research 30 7 (1994) 2133-2141
15. Kalnay E., et al. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis 40-year project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77 (1996) 437-471
16. Lall U. Recent advances in non-parametric function estimation; Hydrologic applications, US Natl. Rep. Int. Union Geod. Geophys. 1991-1994. Reviews of Geophysics 33 (1995) 1093-1102
17. Lall U., and Sharma A. A nearest neighbor bootstrap for resampling hydrologic time series. Water Resources Research 32 (1996) 679-693
18. Mantua N.J., and Hare S.R. The Pacific decadal oscillation. Journal of Oceanography 59 1 (2002) 35-44
19. Mantua N.J., Hare S.R., Zhang Y., Wallace J.M., and Francis R.C. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 (1997) 1069-1079
20. Maurer E.P., Lettenmaier D.P., and Mantua N.J. Variability and potential sources of predictability of North American runoff. Water Resources Research 40 12 (2004) W09306
21. McCabe G.J., Palecki M.A., and Betancourt J.L. Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. PNAS 101 12 (2004) 4136-4141
22. Michaelsen J. Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 26 (1987) 1589-1600
23. Moser, C., Soukup, T., Tootle, G., Piechota, T., Wulff, S., 2009. Incorporating antecendent soil moisture into streamflow forecasting. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, submitted for publication.
24. Newman M., and Sardeshmukh P.D. A caveat concerning singular value decomposition. Journal of Climate 8 (1995) 352-360
25. North Platte River Basin (Overview) HUC# 101800, 2008. Wyoming State Water Plan. (Retrieved 21.03.08.).
26. Natural Resources Conservation Service, 2008. Water supply forecasting, a short primer. (retrieved 15.01.08).
27. Philander S.G. El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation (1990), Academic Press, Inc., San Diego, CA
28. Piechota T.C., and Dracup J.A. Long range streamflow forecasting using El Niño-southern oscillation indicators. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 4 2 (1999) 144-151
29. Piechota T.C., Dracup J.A., Chiew F.H.S., and McMahon T.A. seasonal streamflow forecasting in Eastern Australia and the El Niño-southern oscillation. Journal of Water Resources Research 34 11 (1998) 3035-3044
30. Piechota T.C., Chiew F.H.S., Dracup J.A., and McMahon T.A. Development of exceedance probability streamflow forecast. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 6 1 (2001) 20-28
31. Potts J.M., Folland C.K., Jolliffe I.T., and Sexton D. Revised "LEPS" scores for assessing climate model simulations and long-range forecasts. Journal of Climate 9 (1996) 34-53
32. Rajagopalan B., and Lall U. A k-nearest-neighbor simulator for daily precipitation and other weather variables. Water Resources Research 35 (1999) 3089-3101
33. Rajagopalan B., Cook E., Lall U., and Ray B.K. Spatiotemporal variability of ENSO and SST teleconnections to summer drought over the United States during the twentieth century. Journal of Climate 13 (2000) 4244-4255
34. Rogers J.C., and Coleman J.S.M. Interactions between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, El Niño/La Niña, and the PNA in winter Mississippi Valley stream flow. Geophysical Research Letters 30 10 (2003) 1-4 25
35. Serreze M.C., Clark M.P., McGinnis D.L., and Robinson D.A. Characteristics of snowfall over the eastern half of the United States and relationships with principal modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability. Journal of Climate 11 (1998) 234-250
36. Shabbar A., and Skinner W. Summer drought patterns in Canada and the relationship to global sea surface temperatures. Journal of Climate 17 (2004) 2866-2880
37. Silverman B.W. Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis (1986), Chapman and Hall, New York
38. Smith T.M., and Reynolds R.W. Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data (1854-1997). Journal of Climate 16 (2003) 1495-1510
39. Smith T.M., and Reynolds R.W. Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854-1997). Journal of Climate 17 (2004) 2466-2477
40. Souza Filho F.A., and Lall U. Seasonal to interannual ensemble streamflow forecasts for Ceara, Brazil: applications of multivariate, semiparametric algorithm. Water Resources Research 39 11 (2003) 1307 10.1029/2002/WR001373
41. Tootle G.A., and Piechota T.C. Suwannee river long-range streamflow forecasts based on seasonal climate predictors. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 40 2 (2004) 523-532
42. Tootle G.A., and Piechota T.C. Relationships between Pacific and Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures and US streamflow variability. Water Resources Research 42 (2006) W07411
43. Tootle G.A., Piechota T.C., and Singh A. Coupled oceanic-atmospheric variability and US streamflow. Water Resources Research 41 (2005) W12408 10.1029/2005WR004381
44. Tootle G.A., Piechota T.C., and Gutierrez F. The relationships between pacific and Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures and Colombian streamflow variability. Journal of Hydrology 349 3-4 (2008) 268-276
45. Trenberth K.E. The definition of El Niño. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 (1997) 2271-2777
46. United States Geological Survey, 2007. USGS Real-Time Water Data for USA. National Water Information System. (retrieved 17.11.07).
47. Uvo C.B., Repelli C.A., Zebiak S.E., and Kushnir Y. The relationships between tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST and northeast Brazil monthly precipitation. Journal of Climate 11 (1998) 551-562
48. Wallace J.M., Gutzler D.S., and Bretheron C.S. Singular value decomposition of wintertime sea surface temperature and 500-mb height anomalies. Journal of Climate 5 (1992) 561-576
49. Wang H., and Ting M. Covariabilities of winter precipitation and Pacific sea surface temperatures. Journal of Climate 13 (2000) 3711-3719
50. Ward N.M., and Folland K.K. Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the North Nordeste of Brazil using Eigenvectors of sea-surface temperature. International Journal of Climatology 11 (1991) 711-743
51. Xoplaki E., Luterbacher J., Burkard R., Patrikas I., and Maheras P. Connection between the large-scale 500 hPa geopotential height fields and precipitation over Greece during wintertime. Climate Research 14 (2000) 129-146