LBJ's revenge: The 2008 election and the rise of the Great Society coalition

Forum

Volumn 6, Issue 4, 2009, Pages

  Klinkner, Philip A ^a   Schaller, Thomas ^b  

^a HAMILTON COLLEGE   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND BALTIMORE COUNTY   (United States)

Author keywords

2008 election; Barack Obama; Great Society; John McCain

Indexed keywords

EID: 62649100289     PISSN: None     EISSN: 15408884     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2202/1540-8884.1269     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. Jeffrey S. Passel and D'Vera Cohn, "U.S. Population Projections, 2005-2050," Pew Hispanic Center, February 11, 2008, p. 27. [http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/85.pdf]
2. "U.S. Hispanic Population Surpasses 45 Million," U.S. Census Bureau News Release, May 1, 2008. [http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/ releases/archives/population/011910.html]
3. 1964 figures computed from American National Election Study data at [http://sda.berkeley.edu/archive.htm]. All poll numbers for the 2008 general election obtained from exit polls at [http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/ polls/#USP00p1], unless otherwise indicated.
4. In this context it is interesting to note that 2008 saw the sixth election in a row where the winning candidate had a degree from Harvard or Yale. In fact, since 1988 only two presidential candidates (Bob Dole and John McCain) did not attend Harvard or Yale.
5. http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/exit-polls/indiana.html
6. http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/exit-polls/north-carolina.html
7. Black turnout calculated based on voting age population obtained from Census data at [http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/2007-nat-civ.html].
8. Exit poll data for 2004 obtained at [http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/ pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html].
9. John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira, The Emerging Democratic Majority. New York: Scribner, 2002.
10. Judis and Teixeira, pp. 6, 8-9.
11. Statewide election results obtain from Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Election Results. [http://www.uselectionatlas.org/]
12. Unless otherwise noted, regions conform with U.S. Census classifications: Northeast (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont); South (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Washington D.C.); Midwest (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin); West (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming).
13. th, Democrat Tim Mahoney was defeated following revelations that he had an extra-marital affair with a member of his staff. This was a rather ironic twist since Mahoney won the seat in 2006 when GOP incumbent Mark Foley was accused of sending sexually explicit messages to underage House pages.
14. Ronald Brownstein, "The Bush GOP's Fatal Contraction," National Journal, November 22, 2008. [http://www.nationaljournal.com/ njmagazine/politicalconnections.php]
15. County level results purchased from Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections. [http://www.uselectionatlas.org/]
16. Data on native Southern Whites obtained from Census figures at [http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?-lang=en].
17. Data obtained from U.S. Census at [http://factfinder.census.gov/home/ saff/main.html?-lang=en].
18. Data obtained from U. S. Census at [http://factfinder.census.gov/home/ saff/main.html?-lang=en].
19. Data obtained from U.S. Census at [http://factfinder.census.gov/home/ saff/main.html?-lang=en].
20. Data obtained from U.S. Census at [http://factfinder.census.gov/home/ saff/main.html?-lang=en].
21. Data obtained from the Association of Religious Data Archives at [http://www.thearda.com/Archive/Files/Descriptions/RCMSCY.asp].
22. Alaska was excluded from this analysis since its election districts do not readily match with other types of county-level data.
23. University of Chicago political scientist Eric Oliver wrote recently that the voting pattern in counties where McCain improved on Bush's performance is due to the presence of largely white counties in states with large black populations- the racial isolation effect. We ran a similar regression that included a variable for this effect-the difference between the county percent white and the state percent black. This variable was statistically significant with the sign in the predicted direction, but it was much less significant than the variable for the percent of native southern whites. Adding in this variable also did little to improve the explanatory power of the model since the R2 improved less than a point, from .7209 to .7285. A simple correlation analysis indicates that the correlation between the Obama vote and the percent of native white southerners is -.54 but the correlation with the racial isolation effect is only -.44. See Eric Oliver, "The Bigot Belt," New York Times Freakonomics Blog, November 19, 2008. [http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes. com/2008/11/19/eric-oliver-on-the-bigot-belt/]