Improving mortality prediction using biosocial surveys

American Journal of Epidemiology

Volumn 169, Issue 6, 2009, Pages 769-779

  Goldman, Noreen ^a   Glei, Dana A ^b   Lin, Yu Hsuan ^c   Weinstein, Maxine ^d  

^a PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH   (Taiwan)

^d GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Biological markers; Mortality; Risk factors; Sex factors; Taiwan

Indexed keywords

ADRENALIN; ALBUMIN; BIOLOGICAL MARKER; CHOLESTEROL; GLYCOSYLATED HEMOGLOBIN; HIGH DENSITY LIPOPROTEIN CHOLESTEROL; HYDROCORTISONE; INTERLEUKIN 6; NORADRENALIN; PRASTERONE SULFATE; SOMATOMEDIN C;

ADULT; BIOMARKER; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE; HEALTH STATUS; MORTALITY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RISK FACTOR; SMOKING; SOCIOECONOMIC SURVEY; SURVIVAL;

ADULT; AGED; ALBUMIN BLOOD LEVEL; ARTICLE; BLOOD PRESSURE; BODY MASS; BODY WEIGHT; CARDIOVASCULAR RISK; CENTER FOR EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDIES DEPRESSION SCALE; CHOLESTEROL BLOOD LEVEL; COGNITION; CREATININE CLEARANCE; DISEASE COURSE; DISEASE MARKER; DRUG USE; DYING; EDUCATIONAL STATUS; ETHNICITY; EVALUATION; FEMALE; FOLLOW UP; GENDER; HEALTH HAZARD; HEALTH STATUS; HEALTH SURVEY; HUMAN; HYPERTENSION; INFLAMMATION; LEUKOCYTE COUNT; LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS; MALE; MORTALITY; NEUTROPHIL COUNT; PHYSICAL DISABILITY; PREDICTION; PROBABILITY; RESIDENTIAL AREA; SEX DIFFERENCE; SMOKING; STATISTICAL MODEL; SURVIVAL; TAIWAN; WAIST CIRCUMFERENCE;

AGED; BIOLOGICAL MARKERS; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES; DEMOGRAPHY; DISEASE PROGRESSION; FEMALE; HEALTH SURVEYS; HUMANS; INFLAMMATION; LOGISTIC MODELS; MALE; METABOLIC DISEASES; MIDDLE AGED; MORTALITY; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; RISK FACTORS; ROC CURVE; SMOKING; SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT; TAIWAN;

ASIA; EURASIA; FAR EAST; TAIWAN;

EID: 61449254460     PISSN: 00029262     EISSN: 14766256     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwn389     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Graunt J. Natural and Political Observations Mentioned in a Following Index, and Made Upon the Bills of Mortality. London, United Kingdom: Martyn and Allestry; 1662.
2. (Republished, with an introduction by B. Benjamin, in the Journal of the Institute of Actuaries (J Inst Actuar. 1964;90:1-61)).
3. Weinstein M, Vaupel JW, Wachter KW, eds. Biosocial Surveys: Committee on Advances in Collecting and Utilizing Biological Indicators and Genetic Information in Social Science Surveys. Washington, DC: National Academies Press; 2008.
4. Menotti A, Blackburn H, Kromhout D, et al. Cardiovascular risk factors as determinants of 25-year all-cause mortality in the Seven Countries Study. Eur J Epidemiol. 2001;17(4):337-346.
5. Norrish A, North D, Yee RL, et al. Do cardiovascular disease risk factors predict all-cause mortality? Int J Epidemiol. 1995;24(5):908-914.
6. Kronmal RA, Cain KC, Ye Z, et al. Total serum cholesterol levels and mortality risk as a function of age. A report based on the Framingham data. Arch Intern Med. 1993;153(9):1065-1073.
7. Wilson PW, Abbott RD, Castelli WP. High density lipoprotein cholesterol and mortality. The Framingham Heart Study. Arteriosclerosis. 1988;8(6):737-741.
8. Harris T, Cook EF, Garrison R, et al. Body mass index and mortality among nonsmoking older persons. The Framingham Heart Study. JAMA. 1988;259(10):1520-1524.
9. Cook NR, Buring JE, Ridker PM. The effect of including C-reactive protein in cardiovascular risk prediction models for women. Ann Intern Med. 2006;145(1):21-29.
10. Jenny NS, Yanez ND, Psaty BM, et al. Inflammation biomarkers and near-term death in older men. Am J Epidemiol. 2007;165(6):684-695.
11. Kistorp C, Raymond I, Pedersen F, et al. N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, C-reactive protein, and urinary albumin levels as predictors of mortality and cardiovascular events in older adults. JAMA. 2005;293(13):1609-1616.
12. Lee KW, Hill JS, Walley KR, et al. Relative value of multiple plasma biomarkers as risk factors for coronary artery disease and death in an angiography cohort. CMAJ. 2006;174(4):461-466.
13. Stork S, Feelders RA, van den Beld AW, et al. Prediction of mortality risk in the elderly. Am J Med. 2006;119(6):519-525.
14. Wang TJ, Gona P, Larson MG, et al. Multiple biomarkers for the prediction of first major cardiovascular events and death. N Engl J Med. 2006;355(25):2631-2639.
15. Zethelius B, Berglund L, Sundstrom J, et al. Use of multiple biomarkers to improve the prediction of death from cardiovascular causes. N Engl J Med. 2008;358(20):2107-2116.
16. Lopez AD. The sex mortality differentials in developed countries. In: Lopez AD, Ruzicka LT, eds. Sex Differentials in Mortality: Trends, Determinants and Consequences. Canberra, Australia: Australian National University; 1983:53-120.
17. Pampel FC. Cigarette use and the narrowing sex differential in mortality. Popul Dev Rev. 2002;28(1):77-104.
18. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations. Sex differentials in life expectancy and mortality in developed countries: an analysis by age groups and causes of death from recent and historical data. Popul Bull UN. 1988;25:65-107.
19. Glei DA, Horiuchi S. The narrowing sex differential in life expectancy in high-income populations: effects of differences in the age pattern of mortality. Popul Stud (Camb). 2007;61(2):141-159.
20. Trovato F, Lalu NM. Contribution of cause-specific mortality to changing sex differences in life expectancy: seven nations case study. Soc Biol. 1998;45(1-2):1-20.
21. Wong MD, Chung AK, Boscardin WJ, et al. The contribution of specific causes of death to sex differences in mortality. Public Health Rep. 2006;121(6):746-754.
22. Case A, Paxson C. Sex differences in morbidity and mortality. Demography. 2005;42(2):189-214.
23. Goldman N, Weinstein M, Chang MC, et al. 2000 Social Environment and Biomarkers of Aging Study in Taiwan (SEBAS): Main Documentation for SEBAS Public Use Data. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research; 2003. (http://www.icpsr.umich.edu). (Accessed December 5, 2006).
24. Goldman N, Lin IF, Weinstein M, et al. Evaluating the quality of self-reports of hypertension and diabetes. J Clin Epidemiol. 2003;56(2):148-154.
25. Poulter N. Global risk of cardiovascular disease. Heart. 2003;89(suppl 2):ii2-ii5.
26. Solomon CG, Manson JE. Obesity and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic data. Am J Clin Nutr. 1997;66(4 suppl):1044S-1050S.
27. Turra CM, Goldman N, Seplaki CL, et al. Determinants of mortality at older ages: the role of biological markers of chronic disease. Popul Dev Rev. 2005;31(4):677-701.
28. Keil U, Liese AD, Hense HW, et al. Classical risk factors and their impact on incident nonfatal and fatal myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality in southern Germany. Results from the MONICA Augsburg cohort study 1984-1992. Eur Heart J. 1998;19(8):1197-1207.
29. Volpato S, Leveille SG, Corti MC, et al. The value of serum albumin and high density lipoprotein cholesterol in defining mortality risk in older persons with low serum cholesterol. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2001;49(9):1142-1147.
30. Margolis KL, Manson JE, Greenland P, et al. Leukocyte count as a predictor of cardiovascular events and mortality in postmenopausal women: The Women's Health Initiative Observational Study. Arch Intern Med. 2005;165(5):500-508.
31. Levey AS, Coresh J, Balk E, et al. National Kidney Foundation practice guidelines for chronic kidney disease: evaluation, classification, and stratification. Ann Intern Med. 2003;139(2):137-147.
32. Djoussé L, Rothman KJ, Cupples LA, et al. Serum albumin and risk of myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality in the Framingham Offspring Study. Circulation. 2002;106(23):2919-2924.
33. Lee CD, Folsom AR, Nieto FJ, et al. White blood cell count and incidence of coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke and mortality from cardiovascular disease in African-American and white men and women: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Am J Epidemiol. 2001;154(8):758-764.
34. Gillum RF, Mussolino ME, Madans JH. Counts of neutrophils, lymphocytes, and monocytes, cause-specific mortality and coronary heart disease: The NHANES-I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study. Ann Epidemiol. 2005;15(4):266-271.
35. Bruunsgaard H, Ladelund S, Pedersen AN, et al. Predicting death from tumour necrosis factor-alpha and interleukin-6 in 80-year-old people. Clin Exp Immunol. 2003;132(1):24-31.
36. Cappola AR, Xue QL, Ferrucci L, et al. Insulin-like growth factor I and interleukin-6 contribute synergistically to disability and mortality in older women. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2003;88(5):2019-2025.
37. Mazat L, Lafont S, Berr C, et al. Prospective measurements of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate in a cohort of elderly subjects: relationship to gender, subjective health, smoking habits, and 10-year mortality. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2001;98(14):8145-8150.
38. Reuben DB, Talvi SL, Rowe JW, et al. High urinary catecholamine excretion predicts mortality and functional decline in high-functioning, community-dwelling older persons: MacArthur Studies of Successful Aging. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2000;55(10):M618-M624.
39. Roubenoff R, Parise H, Payette HA, et al. Cytokines, insulin-like growth factor 1, sarcopenia, and mortality in very old community-dwelling men and women: The Framingham Heart Study. Am J Med. 2003;115(6):429-435.
40. Goldman N, Turra CM, Glei DA, et al. Predicting mortality from clinical and nonclinical biomarkers. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2006;61(10):1070-1074.
41. Chobanian AV, Bakris GL, Black HR, et al. The Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure: the JNC 7 report. JAMA. 2003;289(19):2560-2572.
42. National Cholesterol Education Program, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Third Report of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults (Adult Treatment Panel III). Executive Summary. Bethesda, MD: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; 2001. (NIH publication no. 01-3670). (http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/guidelines/cholesterol/atp3xsum.pdf). (Accessed January 8, 2007).
43. Department of Health, Executive Yuan, Taiwan. Definition of adult obesity [in Chinese]. Taipei, Taiwan: Taiwan Department of Health; 2002. (http://food.doh.gov.tw/foodnew/Files/Health/AdultDefinition.jpg). (Accessed December 17, 2008).
44. Inuoe S, Zimmet P, Caterson I, et al. The Asia-Pacific Perspective: Redefining Obesity and its Treatment. Sydney, Australia: Health Communications Australia Pty Ltd; 2000.
45. World Health Organization. Obesity: Preventing and Managing the Global Epidemic. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization; 1998.
46. Genuth S, Alberti KG, Bennett P, et al. Follow-up report on the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus. Diabetes Care. 2003;26(11):3160-3167.
47. Cockcroft DW, Gault MH. Prediction of creatinine clearance from serum creatinine. Nephron. 1976;16(1):31-41.
48. Radloff LS. The CES-D Scale: a self-report depression scale for research in the general population. Appl Psychol Meas. 1977;1(3):149-166.
49. Retherford RD. Tobacco smoking and the sex mortality differential. Demography. 1972;9(2):203-216.
50. Waldron I. The contribution of smoking to sex differences in mortality. Public Health Rep. 1986;101(2):163-173.
51. Valkonen T, Poppel FV. The contribution of smoking to sex differences in life expectancy: four Nordic countries and the Netherlands 1970-1989. Eur J Public Health. 1997;7(3):302-310.
52. Visscher TL, Seidell JC, Menotti A, et al. Underweight and overweight in relation to mortality among men aged 40-59 and 50-69 years: The Seven Countries Study. Am J Epidemiol. 2000;151(7):660-666.
53. Grabowski DC, Ellis JE. High body mass index does not predict mortality in older people: analysis of the Longitudinal Study of Aging. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2001;49(7):968-979.
54. Fried LP, Kronmal RA, Newman AB, et al. Risk factors for 5-year mortality in older adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study. JAMA. 1998;279(8):585-592.
55. Schatz IJ, Masaki K, Yano K, et al. Cholesterol and all-cause mortality in elderly people from the Honolulu Heart Program: a cohort study. Lancet. 2001;358(9279):351-355.
56. Satish S, Freeman DH Jr, Ray L, et al. The relationship between blood pressure and mortality in the oldest old. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2001;49(4):367-374.
57. Harris TB, Ferrucci L, Tracy RP, et al. Associations of elevated interleukin-6 and C-reactive protein levels with mortality in the elderly. Am J Med. 1999;106(5):506-512.
58. Gruenewald TL, Seeman TE, Ryff CD, et al. Combinations of biomarkers predictive of later life mortality. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006;103(38):14158-14163.
59. Goldman N, Weinstein M, Cornman J, et al. Sex differentials in biological risk factors for chronic disease: estimates from population-based surveys. J Womens Health (Larchmt). 2004;13(4):393-403.
60. Lippi G, Salvagno GL, Targher G, et al. Multiple biomarkers for the prediction of first major cardiovascular events and death: considerable costs and limited benefits [electronic article]. MedGenMed. 2007;9(1):34.