U.S. Hurricane Wind Speed Risk and Uncertainty

Journal of Structural Engineering

Volumn 135, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 301-320

  Vickery, Peter J ^a   Wadhera, Dhiraj ^a   Twisdale, Lawrence A ^a   Lavelle, Francis M ^a  

^a APPLIED RESEARCH ASSOCIATES   (United States)

Author keywords

Hurricanes; Risk management; Uncertainty principles; United States; Wind speed

Indexed keywords

B PARAMETERS; HAZARD MODELS; HURRICANE BOUNDARY LAYERS; HURRICANE WIND FIELDS; KEY MODELS; MODELING PROCESS; MODELING UNCERTAINTIES; NEW MODELS; OVERALL RATES; SIMULATION MODELS; STATISTICAL MODELS; TWO PARAMETERS; UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLES; UNITED STATES; WIND SPEED; WIND SPEED PREDICTIONS;

BOUNDARY LAYERS; DECISION MAKING; HURRICANES; RISK ANALYSIS; RISK MANAGEMENT; SPEED; STORMS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WIND EFFECTS;

HURRICANE EFFECTS;

EID: 60449094825     PISSN: 07339445     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2009)135:3(301)     Document Type: Article

References (24)

1. Batts, M. E., Cordes, M. R., Russell, L. R., Shaver, J. R., and Simiu, E. (1980). " Hurricane wind speeds in the United States.." Rep. No. BSS-124, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards.
2. Blake, E. S., Rappaport, E. N., Jarrell, J. D., and Landsea, C. W. (2007). " The deadliest, costliest and most intense United States hurricanes from 1851 to 2006 (and other frequently requested hurricane facts).." Technical Memorandum No. NWS-TPC-5, NOAA.
3. DeMaria, M., and Kaplan, J. (1999). " An updated statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and eastern north Pacific basins.." Weather Forecast., 14, 326-337.
4. Dunion, J. P., Landsea, C. W., Houston, S. H., and Powell, M. D. (2003). " A reanalysis of the surface winds in Hurricane Donna of 1960.." Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 1992-2011.
5. Emanuel, K. A. (1988). " The maximum intensity of hurricanes.." J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 1143-1155.
6. Emanuel, K. A. (2005). " Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.." Nature (London), 436, 686-688.
7. Emanuel, K. A., Ravela, S., Vivant, E., and Risi, C. (2006). " A statistical-deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment.." Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 19, 299-314.
8. Goldman, J. L., and Ushijima, T. (1974). " Decrease in hurricane winds after landfall.." J. Struct. Div., 100, 129-141.
9. Ho, F. P., (1987). " Hurricane climatology for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States.." NOAA Technical Rep. No. NWS38, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C.
10. Holland, G. J. (1980). " An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes.." Mon. Weather Rev., 108, 1212-1218.
11. Houston, S. H., and Powell, M. D. (2003). " Surface wind fields for Florida bay hurricanes.." J. Coastal Res., 19 (3), 503-513.
12. James, M. K., and Mason, L. B. (2005). " Synthetic tropical cyclone database.." J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng., 131 (4), 181-192.
13. Jarvinen, B. R., Neumann, C. J., and Davis, M. A. S. (1984). " A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic Basin 1886-1983: Contents, limitations and uses.." NOAA Technical Memorandum No. NWS NHC 22, U.S. Dept. of Commerce.
14. Landsea, C. W. (2007). " Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900.." EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 88, 197-208.
15. Landsea, C. W., (2008). " A reanalysis of the 1911 to 1920 Atlantic hurricane database.." J. Clim., 21, 2138-2168.
16. Landsea, C. W., Harper, B. A., Hoarau, K., and Knaff, J. A. (2006). " Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones. ?" Science, 313, 452-454.
17. Powell, M. D., and Reinhold, T. A. (2007). " Tropical cyclone destructive potential by integrated kinetz energy.." Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 513-526.
18. Simiu, E., Changery, M., and Filliben, J. (1979). " Extreme wind speeds at 129 stations in the contiguous United States.." NBS building science Series 118.
19. Twisdale, L. A., Vickery, P. J., and Hardy, M. B. (1993). " Uncertainties in the prediction of hurricane windspeeds.." Proc., ASCE Conf. on Hurricanes of 1992, 706-715.
20. Vickery, P. J. (2005). " Simple empirical models for estimating the increase in the central pressure of tropical cyclones after landfall along the coastline of the United States.." J. Appl. Meteorol., 44, 1807-1826.
21. Vickery, P. J., Skerlj, P. F., and Twisdale, L. A., Jr. (2000). " Simulation of hurricane risk in the U.S. using an empirical track model.." J. Struct. Eng., 126 (10), 1222-1237.
22. Vickery, P. J., and Wadhera, D. (2008). " Statistical models of Holland pressure profile parameter and radius to maximum winds of hurricanes from flight level pressure and H* wind data.." J. Appl. Meteorol., 47, 2497-2517.
23. Vickery, P. J., Wadhera, D., Powell, M. D., and Chen, Y. (2008). " A hurricane boundary layer and wind field model for use in engineering applications.." J. Appl. Meteorol., in press.
24. Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A., and Chang, H.-R. (2005). " Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment.." Science, 309 (2005), 1844-1846.