Reconstructing the observation process to correct for changing detection probability of a critically endangered species

Endangered Species Research

Volumn 6, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 231-237

  McConville, A J ^a   Grachev, Iu A ^b   Keane, A ^a   Coulson, T ^a   Bekenov, A B ^b   Milner Gulland, E J ^a  

^a IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^b Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan   (Kazakhstan)

Author keywords

Aerial survey; Antelope; Distance; Kazakhstan; Monitoring; Population trend; Relative abundance; Saiga tatarica; Ungulate

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; DECISION MAKING; DETECTION METHOD; ENDANGERED SPECIES; ESTIMATION METHOD; GROUP SIZE; NATURE CONSERVATION; OBSERVATIONAL METHOD; POPULATION DECLINE; POPULATION DENSITY; RECONSTRUCTION; RELATIVE ABUNDANCE; RUMINANT; TREND ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ASIA; EURASIA; KAZAKHSTAN; WEST ASIA;

SAIGA; SAIGA TATARICA; UNGULATA;

EID: 59849126566     PISSN: 18635407     EISSN: 16134796     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/esr00166     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Andriolo A, Piovezan U, Rodrigues Paranhos da Costa MJ, Laake J, Barbanti Duarte JM (2005) Aerial line transect survey to estimate abundance of marsh deer (Blastocerus dichotomus, Illiger, 1815). Braz Arch Biol Technol 48: 807-814
2. Bayliss P, Yeomans KM (1989) Correcting bias in aerial survey population estimates of feral livestock in Northern Australia using the double-count technique. J Appl Ecol 26: 925-933
3. Bekenov AB, Grachev IA, Milner-Gulland EJ (1998) The ecology and management of the Saiga antelope in Kazakhstan. Mammal Rev 28:1-52
4. Buckland ST, Anderson DR, Burnham KP, Laake JL, Borchers DL, Thomas L (2001) Introduction to distances: estimating abundance of biological populations. Oxford University Press, Oxford
5. Caughley G, Grice D (1982) A correction factor for counting emus from the air, and its application to counts in Western Australia. Aust Wildl Res 9:253-259
6. CMS (Convention on Migratory Species) (2006a) Medium term international work programme for the saiga antelope (2007-2011). CMS/SA-1/Report Annex 9. Convention on Migratory Species. www.cms.int/species/saiga/ post↘ssion/Annex_09_MediumTerm_Int_WrkProgm_E.pdf
7. CMS (Convention on Migratory Species) (2006b) Revised Overview Report. CMS/SA-1/Report Annex 5. Convention on Migratory Species. www.cms.int/ species/saiga/post↘ssion/Annex_05_Revised_Overview_Report_E.pdf
8. Coulson TN, Milner-Gulland EJ, Clutton-Brock T (2000) A comparison of the relative roles of density and climatic variation on fecundity rates in three contrasting ungulate species. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 267:1771-1779
9. Drummer TD, McDonald LL (1987) Size bias in line transect sampling. Biometrics 43:13-21
10. Duisekeev BZ, Sklyarenko SL (2008) Conservation of saiga antelopes in Kazakhstan. Saiga News Issue 7. www.saigaconservation.com/ saiga_news.html
11. Fry M (2004) The status of the Saiga antelope in the Ustiurt region of western Kazakhstan. MSc thesis, Imperial College London
12. Grachev IuA (2004) Saiga. In: Metodi uchota osnovnikh okhotniche-promislobikh I redkikh vidov zhivotnikh Kazakhstana (Fundamental methods of assessment for hunted and rare species of animals in Kazakhstan). Institute of Zoology, Almaty
13. Gregory RD, Gibbons DW, Donald PF (2004) Bird census & survey techniques. In: Sutherland WJ, Newton I, Green RE (eds) Bird ecology & conservation; a handbook of techniques. Oxford University Press, Oxford, p 17-56
14. Guenzel RJ (1997) Estimating pronghorn abundance using aerial line transect sampling. Wyoming Game and Fish Department, Cheyenne. www.ruwpa.st-and.ac.uk/distance.book/pronghorn.html
15. Harris R (1996) Wild ungulate surveys in grassland habitats: satisfying methodological assumptions. Chin J Zool 31: 16-21. http://people.montana.com/-rharris/ Satisfying%20Methodological%20Assumptions.doc
16. Hochachka WM, Fiedler W (2008) Trends in trappability and stop-over duration can confound interpretations of population trajectories from long-term migration ringing studies. J Ornithol 149:375-391
17. Jolly GM (1969) Sampling methods for aerial censuses of wildlife populations. East Afr Agric For J 34(Spec Issue):46-49
18. Kuhl A (2008) Conservation ecology of the saiga antelope. PhD thesis, Imperial College, London
19. Lorenzen K, Almeida O, Arthur R, Garaway C, Nguyen Khoa S (2006) Aggregated yield and fishing effort in multispecies fisheries: an empirical analysis. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 63:1334-1343
20. McConville AJ (2006) Modelling the biases in aerial survey techniques of the saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica) in Kazakhstan. MSc thesis, Imperial College London
21. Milner-Gulland EJ (1994) A population model for the management of the saiga antelope. J Appl Ecol 31: 25-39
22. Milner-Gulland EJ, Kholodova MV, Bekenov A, Bukreeva OM, Grachev IA, Amgalan L, Lushchekina AA (2001) Dramatic declines in saiga antelope populations. Oryx 35: 340-345
23. Milner-Gulland EJ, Bukreeva OM, Coulson TN, Lushchekina AA, Kholodova MV, Bekenov AB, Grachev IuA (2003) Reproductive collapse in saiga antelope harems. Nature 422:135
24. Norton-Griffiths M (1978) Counting animals, 2nd edn. African Wildlife Foundation, Nairobi
25. Norton-Griffiths M, McConville AJ (2007) Technical evaluation of the aerial survey programme for saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica) with recommendations for improvements. Final Report. ZGF-Project No. 1293/02 Saiga Schutz Kasachstan/Evaluation der Tierzahlungen. Frankfurt Zoological Society, Frankfurt
26. Norvell RE, Howe FP, Parrish JR (2003) A seven-year comparision of relative abundance and distance-sampling methods. Auk 120:1013-1028
27. Pollock KH, Nichols JD, Simons TR, Farnsworth GL, Bailey LL, Sauer JR (2002) Large scale wildlife monitoring studies: statistical methods for design and analysis. Environmetrics 13:105-119
28. R Development Core Team (2006) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. www.R-project.org
29. Robinson S, Milner-Gulland EJ, Alimaev I (2003) Rangeland degradation in Kazakhstan during the Soviet era: reexamining the evidence. J Arid Environ 53:419-439
30. Samuel MD, Pollock KH (1981) Correction of visibility bias in aerial surveys where animals occur in groups. J Wildl Manag 45:993-997
31. Samuel MD, Garton EO, Schlegel MW, Garson RG (1987) Visibility bias during aerial surveys of elk in Northcentral Idaho. J Wildl Manag 51:622-630
32. Schauster ER, Gese EM, Kitchen AM (2002) An evaluation of survey methods for monitoring swift fox abundance. Wildl Soc Bull 30:464-477
33. Stephens PA, Sutherland WJ (1999) Consequences of the Allee effect for behaviour, ecology and conservation. Trends Ecol Evol 14:401-405
34. Walters C (2003) Folly & fantasy in the analysis of spatial catch rate data. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 60:1433-1439