Climate change, human land use and future fires in the Amazon

Global Change Biology

Volumn 15, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 601-612

  Cochrane, Mark A ^a   Barber, Christopher P ^a  

^a SOUTH DAKOTA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Deforestation; Fragmentation

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; DEFORESTATION; FOREST FIRE; HABITAT FRAGMENTATION; LAND USE CHANGE;

EID: 59849117766     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01786.x     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Alcock J (2003) Positive feedback and system resilience from graphical and finite-difference models: The Amazon ecosystem -an example. Earth Interactions, 7, article no. 5.
2. Alencar A, Nepstad DC, Vera Diaz MdC (2006) Forest understory fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and no-ENSO years: Area burned and committed carbon emissions. Earth Interactions, 10, article no. 6.
3. Barlow J, Gardner TA, Araujo IS (2007) Quantifying the biodiversity value of tropical primary, secondary and plantation forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104, 18555-18560.
4. Betts RA, Cox PM, Collins M, Harris PP, Huntingford C, Jones CD (2004) The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 157-175.
5. Bond WJ, Woodward FI, Midgley GF (2005) The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire. New Phytologist, 165, 525-537.
6. Bowman DMJS (2000) Australian Rainforests: Islands of Green in a Land of Fire. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
7. Bush MB, Silman MR (2004) Observations on late Pleistocene cooling and precipitation in the lowland Neotropics. Journal of Quaternary Science, 19, 677-684.
8. Cheney P, Sullivan A (1997) Grassfires; Fuel Weather and Fire Behaviour. CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, Australia.
9. Cochrane MA (2001) Synergistic interactions between habitat fragmentation and fire in evergreen tropical forests. Conservation Biology, 15, 1515-1521.
10. Cochrane MA (2003) Fire science for rainforests. Nature, 421, 913-919.
11. Cochrane MA, Alencar A, Schulze MD, Souza CM Jr, Nepstad DC, Lefebvre P, Davidson E (1999) Positive feedbacks in the fire dynamic of closed canopy tropical forests. Science, 284, 1832-1835.
12. Cochrane MA, Laurance WF (2002) Fire as a large-scale edge effect in Amazonian forests. Journal of Tropical Ecology, 18, 311-325.
13. Cochrane MA, Schulze MD (1999) Fire as a recurrent event in tropical forests of the eastern Amazon: Effects on forest structure, biomass, and species composition. Biotropica, 31, 2-16.
14. Cochrane MA, Skole DL, Matricardi EAT, Barber C, Chomentowski W (2004) Selective logging, forest fragmentation and fire disturbance: implications of interaction and synergy. In: Working Forests in the Neotropics: Conservation through Sustainable Management? (eds Zarin DJ et al.), pp. 310-324. Columbia University Press, New York.
15. Collins M (2005) El Niño or La Niña-like climate change? Climate Dynamics, 24, 89-104.
16. Cook KH, Vizy EK (2006) South American climate during the last glacial maximum: Delayed onset of the South American monsoon. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, 1-21.
17. 2 concentrations on the climate of Amazonia. Journal of Climate, 13, 18-34.
18. Covey C, Achutarao KM, Cubasch U et al. (2003) An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Global and Planetary Change, 37, 103-133.
19. 2 within a region of Amazonia. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 15, 553-566.
20. Cox P (2001) Description of the "TRIFFID" dynamic global vegetation model. Technical Note 24, Hadley Centre, Met Office, 16 pp.
21. Cox PM, Betts RA, Collins M, Harris PP, Huntingford C, Jones CD (2004) Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 137-156.
22. Cox PM, Betts RA, Jones CD, Spall SA, Totterdell IJ (2000) Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature, 408, 184-187.
23. D'Almeida C, Vorosmarty CJ, Marengo JA, Hurtt GC, Dingman SL, Kiem BD (2006) A water balance model to study the hydrological response to different scenarios of deforestation in Amazonia. Journal of Hydrology, 331, 125-136.
24. Da Silva RR, Avissar R (2006) The hydrometeorology of a deforested region of the Amazon basin. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 7, 1028-1042.
25. Eltahir EAB, Bras RL (1996) Precipitation recycling. Reviews of Geophysics, 34, 367-378.
26. Feddema JJ, Oleson KW, Bonan GB, Mearns LO, Buja LE, Meehl GA, Washington WM (2005) The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates. Science, 310, 1674-1678.
27. Friedlingstein P, Cox P, Betts R et al. (2006) Climate carbon cycle feedback analysis: Results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 19, 3337-3353.
28. Gandu AW, Cohen JCP, de Souza JRS (2004) Simulation of deforestation in eastern Amazonia using a high-resolution model. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 123-135.
29. Hammond DS, ter Steege H (1998) Propensity for fire in Guianan rainforests. Conservation Biology, 12, 944-947.
30. Hasler N, Avissar R (2007) What controls evapotranspiration in the Amazon basin? Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8, 380-395.
31. Hegerl GC, Zwiers FW, Stott PA, Kharin VV (2004) Detectability of anthropogenic changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes. Journal of Climate, 17, 3683-3700.
32. Huntingford C, Harris PP, Gedney N, Cox PM, Betts RA, Marengo JA, Gash JHC (2004) Using a GCM analogue model to investigate the potential for Amazonian forest dieback. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 177-185.
33. Ichii K, Hashimoto H, White MA et al. (2007) Constraining rooting depths in tropical rainforests using satellite data and ecosystem modeling for accurate simulation of gross primary production seasonality. Global Change Biology, 13, 67-77.
34. INPE (2005) Projeto Prodes; Monitoramento da Floresta Amazônica Brasileira por Satélite. Accessed online 5/12/07 at: http://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/.
35. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. In: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL), pp. 1-996. IPCC, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.
36. Jipp PH, Nepstad DC, Cassel DK, De Carvalho CR (1998) Deep soil moisture storage and transpiration in forests and pastures of seasonally-dry Amazonia. Climatic Change, 39, 395-412.
37. Johnson EA, Cochrane MA (2003) Disturbance regime interactions. In: Climate Change and Biodiversity: Synergistic Impacts. Advances in Applied Biodiversity Science, Number 4 (eds Lovejoy T, Hannah L), pp. 39-44. Conservation International, Washington, DC.
38. Kauffman JB (1991) Survival by sprouting following fire in tropical forests of the Eastern Amazon. Biotropica, 23, 219-224.
39. Kauffman JB, Cummings DL, Ward DE (1998) Fire in the Brazilian Amazon. 2. Biomass, nutrient pools and losses in cattle pastures. Oecologia, 113, 415-427.
40. 2 enrichment. Ecological Applications, 10, 1590-1619.
41. Laurance WF (2007) Switch to corn promotes Amazon deforestation. Science, 318, 1721.
42. Laurance WF, Cochrane MA, Bergen S et al. (2001) The future of the Brazilian Amazon: Development trends and deforestation. Science, 291, 438-439.
43. Laurance WF, Laurance SG, Ferreira LV, Rankin-de Merona J, Gascon C, Lovejoy TE (1997) Biomass collapse in Amazonian forest fragments. Science, 278, 1117-1118.
44. 2 concentration and land use on natural ecosystems and the terrestrial carbon sink. Global Environmental Change, 14, 21-30.
45. Li W, Fu R (2004) Transition of the large-scale atmospheric and land surface conditions from dry to wet season over Amazonia as diagnosed by the ECMWF re-analysis. Journal of Climate, 17, 2637-2651.
46. Li W, Fu R, Dickinson RE (2006) Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, 1-14.
47. Malhi Y, Wright J (2004) Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, 359, 311-329.
48. Messina JP, Cochrane MA (2007) The forests are bleeding: How land use change is creating a new fire regime in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Journal of Latin American Geography, 6, 85-100.
49. Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2004) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 693-712.
50. Moreira MZ, Sternberg LDL, Martinelli LA, Victoria RL, Barbosa EM, Bonates LCM, Nepstad DC (1997) Contribution of transpiration to forest ambient vapour based on isotopic measurements. Global Change Biology, 3, 439-450.
51. Nascimento HEM, Laurance WF (2004) Biomass dynamics in Amazonian forest fragments. Ecological Applications, 14, S127-S138 (Supplement).
52. Nepstad D, Lefebrvre P, Da Silva UL et al. (2004) Amazon drought and its implications for forest flammability and tree growth: A basin-wide analysis. Global Change Biology, 10, 704-717.
53. Nepstad DC, Decarvalho CR, Davidson EA et al. (1994) The role of deep roots in the hydrological and carbon cycles of Amazonian forests and pastures. Nature, 372, 666-669.
54. Nepstad DC, Tohver IM, Ray D, Moutinho P, Cardinot G (2007) Mortality of large trees and lianas following experimental drought in an Amazon forest. Ecology, 88, 2259-2269.
55. Nobre CA, Sellers PJ, Shukla J (1991) Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change. Journal of Climate, 4, 957-988.
56. Pausas JG, Bradstock RA (2007) Fire persistence traits of plants along a productivity and disturbance gradient in Mediterranean shrublands of south-east Australia. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16, 330-340.
57. Peres CA, Barlow J, Haugaasen T (2003) Vertebrate responses to surface fires in a Central Amazonian Forest. Oryx, 37, 97-109.
58. Peters DPC, Pielke RA, Bestelmeyer BT (2004) Cross-scale interactions, nonlinearities, and forecasting catastrophic events. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101, 15130-15135.
59. Quintere JG (1993) Canadian mass fire experiment, 1989. Journal of Fire Protection Engineering, 5, 67-78.
60. Salati E, Nobre CA (1991) Possible climatic impacts of tropical deforestation. Climatic Change, 19, 177-196.
61. Salazar LF, Nobre CA, Oyama MD (2007) Climate change consequences on the biome distribution in tropical South America. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, 1-6.
62. Saleska SR, Didan K, Huete AR, da Rocha HR (2007) Amazon forests green-up during 2005 drought. Science, 318, 612.
63. Sawyer D (2008) Climate change, biofuels and eco-social impacts in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, 363, 1747-1752.
64. Shukla J, Nobre C, Sellers P (1990) Amazon deforestation and climate change. Science, 247, 1322-1325.
65. Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster JM, Meehl GE (2006) Going to the extremes: An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Climate Change, 79, 185-211.
66. Uhl C, Barreto P, Veríssimo A et al. (1997) Natural resource management in the Brazilian Amazon. Bioscience, 47, 160-168.
67. Uhl C, Kauffman JB (1990) Deforestation, fire susceptibility, and potential tree responses to fire in the eastern Amazon. Ecology, 71, 437-449.
68. UNEP Cochrane MA (2002) Spreading like wildfire - tropical forest fires in Latin America and the Caribbean: Prevention, assessment and early warning. United Nations Environment Program, Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean, 96 pp.
69. Veríssimo A, Barreto P, Tarifa R, Uhl C (1995) Extraction of a high-value natural source from Amazon: The case of mahogany. Forest Ecology and Management, 72, 39-60.
70. Veríssimo A, Cochrane MA, Souza C Jr (2002) National forests in the Amazon. Science, 297, 1478.
71. Williams JW, Jackson ST, Kutzbach JE (2007) Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104, 5738-5742.