Can we make accurate long-term predictions about patterns of de-escalation in offending behavior?

Journal of Youth and Adolescence

Volumn 38, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 384-400

  Kazemian, Lila ^a   Farrington, David P ^b   Le Blanc, Marc ^c  

^a JOHN JAY COLLEGE OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITÉ DE MONTRÉAL   (Canada)

Author keywords

Between individual; Comparative research; De escalation; Desistance; Developmental; Self control; Social bonds; Within individual

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; ARTICLE; CANADA; COMPARATIVE STUDY; CRIME; HUMAN; LONGITUDINAL STUDY; MALE; PERSONALITY; PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECT; PSYCHOLOGICAL MODEL; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SOCIAL SUPPORT; SOCIOPATHY; STATISTICS; UNITED KINGDOM; PSYCHOLOGY; SOCIAL BEHAVIOR DISORDERS; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; CRIME; HUMANS; LONDON; LONGITUDINAL STUDIES; MALE; MODELS, PSYCHOLOGICAL; PERSONALITY; QUEBEC; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SOCIAL BEHAVIOR DISORDERS; SOCIAL SUPPORT;

EID: 59549105594     PISSN: 00472891     EISSN: 15736601     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10964-008-9338-z     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Bandura, A. (1991). Social cognitive theory of moral thought and action. In W. M. Kurtines & J. L. Gewirtz (Eds.), Handbook of moral behavior and development: Theory (Vol. 1, pp. 45-103). Hillsdale, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum.
2. AQ Barriga JR Landau BL Stinson II AK Liau JC Gibbs 2000 Cognitive distortions and problem behaviors in adolescents Criminal Justice and Behavior 27 1 36 56 10.1177/0093854800027001003
3. Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., & Hsieh, P. (1982). The duration of adult criminal careers: Final report to National Institute of Justice. Pittsburgh, PA: Carnegie-Mellon University.
4. Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., Roth, J. A., & Visher, C. A. (1986). Introduction: Studying criminal careers. In Criminal careers and "career criminals" (Vol. 1, pp. 12-30). Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
5. Bohrnstedt, G. W. (1969). Observations on the measurement of change. In E. F. Borgatta (Ed.), Sociological methodology (pp. 113-133). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
6. MW Burek 2005 Now serving part two crimes: Testing the relationship between welfare spending and property crimes Criminal Justice Policy Review 16 3 360 384 10.1177/0887403405274782
7. RJ Bursik J Webb 1982 Community change and patterns of delinquency American Journal of Sociology 88 1 24 42 10.1086/227632
8. SD Bushway AR Piquero LM Broidy E Cauffman P Mazerolle 2001 An empirical framework for studying desistance as a process Criminology 39 2 491 515 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2001.tb00931.x
9. SD Bushway TP Thornberry MD Krohn 2003 Desistance as a developmental process: A comparison of static and dynamic approaches Journal of Quantitative Criminology 19 2 129 153 10.1023/A:1023050103707
10. CN Covell MJ Scalora 2002 Empathic deficits in sexual offenders: An integration of affective, social, and cognitive constructs Aggression and Violent Behavior 7 251 270 10.1016/S1359-1789(01)00046-5
11. Cusson, M., & Pinsonneault, P. (1986). The decision to give up crime. In D. B. Cornish & R. V. Clarke (Eds.), The reasoning criminal: Rational choice perspectives on offending (pp. 72-82). New York: Springer-Verlag.
12. Ezell, M. E., & Cohen, L. E. (2005). Desisting from crime: Continuity and change in long-term crime patterns of serious chronic offenders. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
13. Farrington, D. P. (2003). Key results from the first forty years of the Cambridge study in delinquent development. In T. P. Thornberry & M. D. Krohn (Eds.), Taking stock of delinquency: An overview of findings from contemporary longitudinal studies (pp. 137-183). New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers.
14. Farrington, D. P., Coid, J. W., Jolliffe, D., Soteriou, N., Turner, R., & West, D. J. (2006). Criminal careers up to age 50 and life success up to age 48: New findings from the Cambridge study in delinquent development (No. Home Office Research Study No. 299). London: Home Office.
15. DP Farrington R Loeber Y Yin SJ Anderson 2002 Are within-individual causes of delinquency the same as between-individual causes? Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health 12 1 53 68 10.1002/cbm.486
16. Farrington, D. P., & West, D. J. (1995). Effects of marriage, separation, and children on offending by adults males. In Z. S. Blau & J. Hagan (Eds.), Current perspectives on aging and the life cycle (Vol. 4, pp. 249-281). Greenwich, CT: JAI Press.
17. SA Giordano Cernkovich JL Rudolph 2002 Gender, crime, and desistance: Toward a theory of cognitive transformation American Journal of Sociology 107 4 990 1064 10.1086/343191
18. Gottfredson, M. R., & Hirschi, T. (1990). A general theory of crime. Stanford, California: Stanford University Press.
19. HG Grasmick CR Tittle BJ Arneklev 1993 Testing the core empirical implications of Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of crime Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 30 5 29 10.1177/0022427893030001002
20. JL Heitgerd RJ Bursik 1987 Extra community dynamics and the ecology of delinquency American Journal of Sociology 92 4 775 787 10.1086/228582
21. J Horney DW Osgood IH Marshall 1995 Criminal careers in the short-term: Intra-individual variability in crime and its relation to local life circumstances American Sociological Review 60 655 673 10.2307/2096316
22. LR Huesmann LD Eron MM Lefkowitz LO Walder 1984 Stability of aggression over time and generations Developmental Psychology 20 6 1120 1134 10.1037/0012-1649.20.6.1120
23. Kazemian, L. (2007). Desistance from crime: Theoretical, empirical, methodological, and policy considerations. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 23(1), 5-27.
24. L Kazemian DP Farrington 2006 Exploring residual career length and residual number of offenses for two generations of repeat offenders Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 43 1 89 113 10.1177/0022427805280066
25. L Kazemian M LeBlanc 2004 Exploring patterns of perpetration of crime across the life course: offense and offender-based viewpoints Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice 20 4 393 415 10.1177/1043986204269378
26. C Kruttschnitt C Uggen K Shelton 2000 Predictors of desistance among sex offenders: The interaction of formal and informal social controls Justice Quarterly 17 1 61 87 10.1080/07418820000094481
27. JH Laub DS Nagin RJ Sampson 1998 Trajectories of change in criminal offending: Good marriages and the desistance process American Sociological Review 63 225 238 10.2307/2657324
28. Laub, J. H., & Sampson, R. J. (2001). Understanding desistance from crime. In M. Tonry (Ed.), Crime and justice (Vol. 28, pp. 1-69). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
29. Laub, J. H., & Sampson, R. J. (2003). Shared beginnings, divergent lives: Delinquents boys to age 70. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
30. Le Blanc, M., & Fréchette, M. (1989). Male criminal activity from childhood through youth: Multilevel and developmental perspectives. New York: Springer-Verlag.
31. Le Blanc, M., & Loeber, R. (1998). Developmental criminology updated. In M. Tonry (Ed.), Crime and justice (Vol. 23, pp. 115-198). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
32. TP LeBel R Burnett S Maruna S Bushway 2008 The 'chicken and egg' of subjective and social factors in desistance from crime European Journal of Criminology 5 2 130 158 10.1177/1477370807087640
33. D Longshore S Turner JA Stein 1996 Self-control in a criminal sample: An examination of construct validity Criminology 34 2 209 228 10.1111/j.1745-9125. 1996.tb01203.x
34. Maruna, S. (2001). Making good: How ex-convicts reform and rebuild their lives. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
35. TE Moffitt 1993 'Life-course persistent' and 'adolescence-limited' antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy Psychological Review 100 674 701 10.1037/0033-295X.100.4.674
36. J Morizot M Le Blanc 2003 Continuity and change in personality traits from adolescence to midlife: a 25-year longitudinal study comparing representative and adjudicated men Journal of Personality 71 5 705 756 10.1111/1467-6494.7105002
37. J Morizot M Le Blanc 2007 Behavioral, self, and social control predictors of desistance from crime: A test of launch and contemporaneous effect models Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice 23 1 50 71 10.1177/1043986206298945
38. C Morselli P Tremblay 2004 Criminal achievement, offender networks and the benefits of low self-control Criminology 42 3 773 804 10.1111/j.1745-9125. 2004.tb00536.x
39. M Ouimet M Le Blanc 1996 The role of life experiences in the continuation of the adult criminal career Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health 6 1 73 97 10.1002/cbm.65
40. G Pogarsky AR Piquero R Paternoster 2004 Modeling change in perceptions about sanction threats: The neglected linkage in deterrence theory Journal of Quantitative Criminology 20 4 343 369 10.1007/s10940-004-5868-z
41. Ross, R. R. (1995). The reasoning and rehabilitation program for high-risk probationers and prisoners. In R. R. Ross, D. H. Antonowicz, & G. K. Dhaliwal (Eds.), Going straight: Effective delinquency prevention and offender rehabilitation (pp. 195-222). Ottawa: Air Training and Publications.
42. Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (1993). Crime in the making: Pathways and turning points through life. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
43. Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (1997). A life-course theory of cumulative disadvantage and the stability of delinquency. In T. P. Thornberry (Ed.), Developmental theories of crime and delinquency: Advances in criminological theory (Vol. 7, pp. 133-161). New Brunswick: Transaction.
44. N Shover CY Thompson 1992 Age, differential expectations, and crime desistance Criminology 30 1 89 104 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1992.tb01094.x
45. G Sykes D Matza 1957 Techniques of neutralization: a theory of delinquency American Sociological Review 22 664 670 10.2307/2089195
46. C Uggen 2000 Work as a turning point in the life course of criminals: A duration model of age, employment, and recidivism American Sociological Review 67 529 546 10.2307/2657381
47. GD Walters 2002 Developmental trajectories, transitions, and nonlinear dynamical systems: A model of crime deceleration and desistance International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 46 1 30 44 10.1177/0306624X02461003
48. M Warr 1998 Life-course transitions and desistance from crime Criminology 36 2 183 216 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1998.tb01246.x
49. Wolfgang, M. E., Figlio, R. M., Tracy, P. E., & Singer, S. I. (1985). The national survey of crime severity. Washington, DC: U.S: Department of Justice, Bureau of Statistics.
50. JP Wright FT Cullen 2004 Employment, peers, and life-course transitions Justice Quarterly 21 1 183 205 10.1080/07418820400095781