Population ageing in Australia: Policy implications of recent projections

People and Place

Volumn 16, Issue 4, 2008, Pages 43-51

  Betts, Katharine ^a  

^a SWINBURNE UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AGE STRUCTURE; AGING POPULATION; FERTILITY; IMMIGRATION; POLICY APPROACH; POPULATION GROWTH; POPULATION MIGRATION;

AUSTRALASIA; AUSTRALIA;

EID: 59049094730     PISSN: 10394788     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. The TFR in 1976 was 2.06: Bureau of Immigration Research, Australia's Population Trends and Prospects, 1990, Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra, 1991, p. 14.
2. The TFR is 'based on the average number of children that would be born to a population of women if they were to pass through their childbearing years conforming to the age-specific birth rates of a given year'. See A. Haupt and T. T. Kane, Population Handbook: International Edition, Population Reference Bureau, Inc., Washington, 1980, p. 13.
3. See Australian Demographic Statistics, Catalogue no. 3101.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Canberra, various issues. The officially recorded TFR did drop below 1.8 in the late 1990s but it seems that this was more a consequence of failures in the birth registration system than of changes in actual fertility.
4. See P. McDonald, 'Has the Australian fertility rate stopped falling', People and Place, vol. 13, no. 3, 2005, pp. 1-5, and
5. Births Australia 2005, Catalogue no. 3301.0, ABS, Canberra, 2006, chapter 5.
6. For the TFR in the 1930s see Australian Demographic Trends, 1997, ABS, Catalogue no. 3102.0, Canberra, 1997, pp. 41-42.
7. ibid., p. 57.
8. Deaths Australia 2007, Catalogue No. 3302.0, ABS, Canberra, 2008, p. 10
9. See for example A. Reid, 'How Australia may become a senile country', The Bulletin, 25 September 1976, p. 25
10. Tony Berg (Business Council of Australia), quoted in B. Birnbauer, 'A land half-full', The Age (News Extra), 14 March 1998, p. 4
11. G. Barns, 'Why we need more migrants', The Age, 13 December 2001
12. arguments for immigration used by Jeff Kennett in B. Birnbauer, 'Kennett in call to lift migration', The Age, 16 March 1998, pp. 1, 6 and
13. in B. Nicholson and M. Shaw, 'Clash on migrant limits', The Age, 8 March 1999, and in Australian Associated Press, 'Aust population should double within 60 years - Kennett', 20 April 1999.
14. K. Betts, 'The ageing of the population and attitudes to immigration', People and Place, vol. 14, no. 2, 2006, pp. 26-38
15. 'More broadly we have an ageing population. My inclination is not to do reviews, but get on with it'. Evans quoted in P. Kelly, 'Rudd taps global labour pool - Labor promises massive increase in migration', The Australian, 17 May 2008, p. 1
16. In response to the Rudd Government's immigration program The Australian wrote: 'It is in line with a pattern of rising immigration established by the Howard government, which was well aware of the need to boost immigration as one response to the problems posed by Australia's ageing population'. Editorial, 'More workers are a positive force', The Australian, May 19 2008, p. 9.
17. See Productivity Commission, Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia: Productivity Commission Research Report, 24 March, Productivity Commission, Melbourne, 2005
18. R. Kippen, 'A note on aging, immigration and the birth rate', People and Place, vol. 7, no. 2, 1999, pp. 18-22
19. C. Young and L. Day, 'Australia's demographic future: determinants of our population', Australian Academy of Science, Population 2040: Australia's Choice, Canberra, 1994. In 2000 the ABS wrote: 'Even large differences in the level of net overseas migration will have a relatively small impact on the age distribution. With net overseas migration of 50,000 per year, the median age of the population in 2051 would be 47.2 years, compared to 44.6 years when 150,000 net overseas migrants are added to the population per year, a difference of 2.6 years'. Projections of the Populations of Australia, States and Territories: 1999-2101, Catalogue no. 3222.0, ABS, Canberra, 2000, p. 2.
20. See Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101, Catalogue no. 3222.0, ABS, Canberra, 2008, together with associated projection series available at in electronic files.
21. The 12 high life expectancy series assume life expectancy at birth rising to 93.9 years for males and 96.1 for females. If any of these scenarios were to come to pass the median age of the population would be higher, but the relative differences between the them and the 12 series which assume 'medium' life expectancy would be similar.
22. Demographic Statistics, June Quarter 2008, ABS, Catalogue no. 3101.0, 2008, pp. 30, 11
23. Demographers label a population stable if it is growing or declining at a steady and predictable rate. A population that is neither growing nor declining is a type of stable population, hence the label, stable and stationaiy. In fact series 59S is not quite in this category as the TFR is only 2.0 not 2.1, the level required for replacement. See D. T. Rowland, Demographic Methods and Concepts, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2003, pp. 302, 241.
24. 2006 Census Community Profile Series, Australia, Catalogue no. 2001.0
25. See Rowland., 2003, op. cit., p. 53