Bayesian adaptive model selection for optimizing group sequential clinical trials

Statistics in Medicine

Volumn 27, Issue 27, 2008, Pages 5586-5604

  Kyle Wathen, J ^a   Thall, Peter ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian clinical trial; Bayesian optimal design; Forward simulation; Model selection; Sequential clinical trial

Indexed keywords

ALGORITHM; ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; CLINICAL TRIAL; COMPARATIVE STUDY; COMPUTER SIMULATION; HUMAN; METHODOLOGY; PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL;

ALGORITHMS; BAYES THEOREM; CLINICAL TRIALS AS TOPIC; COMPUTER SIMULATION; HUMANS; PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODELS; RESEARCH DESIGN;

EID: 58749104400     PISSN: 02776715     EISSN: 10970258     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/sim.3381     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. O'Brien PC, Fleming TR. A multiple testing procedure for clinical trials. Biometrics 1979; 35:549-556.
2. Pocock SJ. Group sequential methods in the design and analysis of clinical trials. Biometrika 1977; 64:191-199.
3. Lan KKG, DeMets DL. Discrete sequential boundaries for clinical trials. Biometrika 1983; 70:659-663.
4. Wang SK, Tsiatis AA. Approximately optimal one-parameter boundaries for group sequential trials. Biometrics 1987; 43:193-199.
5. Hwang IK, Shih WJ, De Cani JS. Group sequential designs using a family of type I error probability spending functions. Statistics in Medicine 1990; 9:1439-1445.
6. Eales JD, Jennison C. An improved method for deriving optimal one-sided group sequential tests. Biometrika 1992; 79:13-24.
7. Pampallona S, Tsiatis AA. Group sequential designs for one-sided and two-sided hypothesis testing with provision for early stopping in favor of the null hypothesis. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 1994; 42:19-35.
8. Eales JD, Jennison C. Optimal two-sided group sequential tests. Sequential Analysis 1995; 14:273-286.
9. Barber S, Jennison C. Optimal asymmetric one-sided group sequential tests. Biometrika 2002; 89(1):49-60.
10. Freedman LS, Spiegelhalter DJ. Comparison of Bayesian with group sequential methods for monitoring clinical trials. Controlled Clinical Trials 1989; 10:357-367.
11. Spiegelhalter DJ, Freedman LS, Parmar MKB. Bayesian approaches to randomized trials (Disc: P387-416). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society 1994; 157:357-387.
12. Jennison C, Turnbull BW. Group Sequential Methods with Applications to Clinical Trials. CRC Press Inc.: Boca Raton, FL, 2000.
13. Pocock SJ, Hughes MD. Practical problems in interim analyses, with particular regard to estimation. Controled Clinical Trials 1989; 10:209S-212S.
14. Raftery AE. Approximate Bayes factors and accounting for model uncertainty in generalised linear models. Biometrika 1996; 83:251-266.
15. Berger JO. Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis. Springer: Berlin, 1993.
16. Lewis RJ, Berry DA. Group sequential clinical trials: a classical evaluation of Bayesian decision-theoretic designs. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1994; 89:1528-1534.
17. DeGroot MH. Optimal Statistical Decisions. McGraw-Hill: New York, 1970.
18. Berry DA, Ho CH. One-sided sequential stopping boundaries for clinical trials: a decision-theoretic approach. Biometrics 1988; 44:219-227.
19. Carlin BP, Kadane JB, Gelfand AE. Approaches for optimal sequential decision analysis in clinical trials. Biometrics 1998; 54:964-975.
20. Madigan D, Raftery AE. Model selection and accounting for model uncertainty in graphical models using Occam's window. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1994; 89(428):1535-1546.
21. Kass RE, Raftery AE. Bayes factors. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1995; 90(430):773-795.
22. Gilks WR, Richardson S, Spiegelhalter DJ. Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. Chapman & Hall/CRC: London, 1996.
23. East V3.0. Cytel statistical software, 2002.