Predicting the herd immunity threshold during an outbreak: A recursive approach

PLoS ONE

Volumn 4, Issue 1, 2009, Pages

  Georgette, Nathan T ^a  

^a Allen D Nease High School   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ALGORITHM; ARTICLE; EPIDEMIC; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; HEALTH CARE UTILIZATION; HEALTH SURVEY; HERD IMMUNITY; INFECTION CONTROL; MEASLES; MEASLES VACCINATION; PREDICTION; REPRODUCTION; STATISTICAL MODEL; SYSTEMATIC ERROR; VACCINATION; PREVENTIVE HEALTH SERVICE; STATISTICS;

MEASLES VACCINE;

ALGORITHMS; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; IMMUNITY, HERD; IMMUNIZATION PROGRAMS; MEASLES; MEASLES VACCINE; VACCINATION;

EID: 58349089842     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0004168     Document Type: Article

References (21)

1. Sniadack D, Moscoso B, Aguilar R, Heath J, Bellini W, et al. (1999) Measles epidemiology and outbreak response immunization in a rural community in Peru. B World Health Organ 77(7): 545-552.
2. Grais R, Conlan A, Ferrari M, Djibo A, Le Menach A, et al. (2007) Time is of the essence: exploring a measles outbreak response vaccination in Niamey, Niger. J R Soc Interface 5(18): 67-74.
3. White C, Koplan J, Orenstein W (1985) Benefits, Risks, and Costs of Immunization for Measles, Mumps, and Rubella. Am J Public Health 75(7): 739-744.
4. Farrington C, Whitaker H (2003) Estimation of effective reproduction numbers for infectious diseases using serological survey data. Biostatistics 4(4): 621-632.
5. Fine PE (1993) Herd Immunity: History, Theory, Practice. Epidemiol Rev 15(2): 265-302.
6. John T, Samuel R (2000) Herd immunity and herd effect: new insights and definitions. Eur J Epidemiol 16(7): 601-606.
7. World Health Organization (2007) Measles Fact Sheet. Available: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs286/en/. Accessed 2008 April 01.
8. Robertson S, Markowitz L, Berry D, Dini E, Orenstein W (1992) A Million Dollar Measles Outbreak: Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and a Selective Revaccination Strategy. Public Health Rep 107(1): 24-31.
9. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2003) Vaccine Management: Handling and Storage Details for Vaccines. Available: http://www.cdc.gov/ vaccines/programs/vfc/downloads/vacc_mgmt_guide_utah.pdf. Accessed 2008 May 12.
10. Anderson R, May R (1991) Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. Oxford: Oxford Science Publications. 772 p.
11. Diekmann O, Heesterbeek J, Metz J (1998) On the definition and computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. J Math Biol 28(4): 365-382.
12. Fraser C (2007) Estimating Individual and Household Reproduction Numbers in an Emerging Epidemic. PLoS ONE 2(8): e758. doi:10.1371/ journal.pone.0000758.
13. Bettencourt LMA, Ribeiro RM (2008) Real Time Bayesian Estimation of the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Infectious Diseases. PLoS ONE 3(5): e2185. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0002185.
14. Wallinga J, Lipsitch M (2007) How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers. Proc R Soc Ser B-Bio 274(1609): 599-604.
15. Cauchemez S, Boëlle P, Thomas G, Valleron A (2006) Estimating in real time the efficacy of measures to control emerging communicable diseases. Am J Epidemiol 164(6): 591-597.
16. Hartnell B (1995) Firefighter! An Application of Domination, presentation, Twentieth Conference on Numerical Mathematics and Computing, University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Canada.
17. Develin M, Hartke SG (2007) Fire Containment in Grids of Dimension Three and Higher. Discrete Applied Mathematics 155(17): 2257-2268.
18. Ng KL, Raff P (2008) A generalization of the firefighter problem on z x z. Discrete Applied Mathematics 156(5): 730-745.
19. Georgette N (2007) The Quantification Of The Effects Of Changes In Population Parameters On The Herd Immunity Threshold. Internet J Epidemiol 5(1). Available: http://www.ispub.com/ostia/ index.php?xmlFilePath=journals/ije/vol5n1/population.xml. Accessed: 2008 April 20.
20. Hyde T, Dayan G, Langidrik J, Nandy R, Edwards R, et al. (2006) Measles outbreak in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, 2003. Int J Epidemiol 35(2): 299-306.
21. Samuela S, Tuiketei T, Duncan R, Kubo T, Kool J, et al. (2006) Measles Outbreak and Response - Fiji, February-May 2006. MMWR 55(35): 963-966.