Demand forecasting for essential medical tehcnologies

American Journal of Law and Medicine

Volumn 34, Issue 2-3, 2008, Pages 225-255

  Levine, Ruth ^a   Pickett, Jessica ^a   Sekhri, Neelam ^b   Yadav, Prashant ^c  

^a CENTER FOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT   (United States)

^b Healthcare Redesign Group   (United States)

^c MIT Zaragoza International Logistics Program   (Spain)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; COMMERCIAL PHENOMENA; ECONOMICS; FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT; FORECASTING; HEALTH; HEALTH SERVICE; MEDICAL RESEARCH; MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY; RESEARCH;

BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH; COMMERCE; FINANCIAL SUPPORT; FORECASTING; HEALTH SERVICES NEEDS AND DEMAND; RESEARCH; TECHNOLOGY, MEDICAL; WORLD HEALTH;

EID: 58149132149     PISSN: 00988588     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/009885880803400206     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (96)

1. See Neelam Sekhri et al., A RISKY BUSINESS: SAVING MONEY AND IMPROVING GLOBAL HEALTH THROUGH BETTER DEMAND FORECASTS REPORT OF THE GLOBAL HEALTH FORECASTING WORKING GROUP (2007), www.cgdev.org/files/ 13784_file_RiskyBusinessFull.pdf
2. Id. at 1.
3. Id.
4. Id. at 3.
5. Id. at 2.
6. Id. at 3.
7. NEELAM SEKHRI, FORECASTING FOR GLOBAL HEALTH: NEW MONEY, NEW PRODUCTS & NEW MARKETS, BACKGROUND PAPER FOR THE GLOBAL HEALTH FORECASTING WORKING GROUP 6 (2006), www.cgdev.org/doc/DemandForecasting/ NewMoneyNewMarkets.pdf.
8. Id. at 17.
9. Neelam, supra note 1, at 6.
10. Id. at 2, 7.
11. See generally id.
12. PRASHANT YADAV ET AL., MAPPING & REALIGNING INCENTIVES IN THE GLOBAL HEALTH SUPPLY CHAIN, BACKGROUND PAPER FOR THE GLOBAL HEALTH FORECASTING WORKING GROUP (2006), www.cgdev.org/doc/ DemandForecasting/RealigningIncentives.pdf
13. See Christopher Lane & Amanda Glassman, Bigger And Better? Scaling Up and Innovation In Health Aid, 26 HEALTH AFF. 935 (2007).
14. Id. at 935-36, 939.
15. Id. at 935-36.
16. The President's Malaria Initiative, www.fightingmalaria.gov
17. The President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, www.pepfar.gov.
18. David Brown, House Votes to Continue and Expand President's Global Effort Against AIDS, WASH. POST (April 3,2008).
19. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, www.theglobalfund.org/en/funds_raised/commitments (last visited Feb. 29, 2008).
20. Neelam et al., supra note 1, at 12.
21. UNICEF (UNITED NATIONS INTERNATIONAL CHILDREN'S EMERGENCY FUND), 2004 UNICEF SUPPLY DIVISION ANNUAL REPORT 4 (2004).
22. GAVI Alliance, Donors to the GAVI Alliance/Fund (2007), www.gavialliance.org/resources/donor_contributions_may2007.xls.
23. Press Release, GAVI Alliance, International Finance Facility for Immunisation Issues Inaugural Bonds (Nov. 7, 2006), www.gavialliance.org/ Media_Center/Press_Releases/pr_IFFImBondLaunch_7Nov2006.php.
24. UNITAID, www.unitaid.eu/ (last visited Feb. 29, 2008).
25. Press Release, AMC, Five Nations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Launch Advance Market Commitment for Vaccines to Combat Deadly Disease in Poor Nations (February 9, 2007), www.vaccineamc.org.
26. Roll Back Malaria Affordable Medicines Facility for Malaria (AMF-m) Taskforce, www.rbm.who.int/globalsubsidytaskforce.html (last visited Feb. 29, 2008).
27. Brookings Global Health Financing Initiative Snapshot Series, www.brookings.edu/projects/global-health/health-snapshot.aspx (last visited Feb. 29, 2008).
28. Alex Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire? INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 4 (June 26, 2006).
29. Press Release, The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, The Global Fund Welcomes Ugandan Corruption Inquiry Report (June 2, 2006), www.theglobalfund.org/en/media_center/press/ pr_60602b.asp.
30. See N.J. White et al., Averting a Malaria Disaster, 353 LANCET 1965,1965-67 (1999).
31. See World Health Organization HIV/AIDS Programme, Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV Infection in Adults and Adolescents: Recommendations for a Public Health Approach (2006), www.who.int/hiv/pub/guidelines/ artadultguidelines.pdf
32. Christopher Elias, Can We Ensure Health is Within Reach for Everyone?, 368 LANCET S40, S40-41 (2006).
33. World Health Organization, The Evolving Vaccine Pipeline (2007), www.who.int/immunization_delivery/new_vaccines/en/.
34. UNICEF, World Health Organization, The World Bank, State of the World's Vaccines and Immunization (2002).
35. New Technologies for TB Control: A Framework for their Adoption, Introduction and Implementation (2007), www.stoptb.org/retooling/assets/ documents/New%20Technologies%20for%2 0TB%20Control%20Final%20 version%20with%20 design%2025May2007.pdf.
36. Medicines for Malaria Ventures, Partnerships Hold the Key: Africa Malaria Day (2007), www.mmv.org/article.php3?id_article=358.
37. See Julie Milstien et al., Access to Vaccine Technologies in Developing Countries: Brazil and India, 25 VACCINE 7610 (2007).
38. Dana G. Dalrymple, Artemisia, Agriculture and Malaria in Africa: The Interplay of Tradition, Science and Public Policy, 7-12 (U.S. Agency for Intl Development (USAID), Draft Working Paper, 2007).
39. PRASHANT YADAV ET AL., MAPPING AND REALIGNING INCENTIVES IN THE GLOBAL HEALTH SUPPLY CHAIN, BACKGROUND PAPER FOR THE GLOBAL HEALTH FORECASTING WORKING GROUP 11 (2006), www.cgdev.org/doc/ DemandForecasting/RealigningIncentives.pdf.
40. See M.A. Aziz et al., Epidemiology of Antituberculosis Drug Resistance (the Global Project on Anti-Tuberculosis Drug Resistance Surveillance): An Updated Analysis, 368 LANCET 2142 (2006).
41. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Emergence of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis with Extensive Resistance to Second-Line Drugs-Worldwide, 2000-2004, 55 MORBIDITY & MORTALITY WEEKLY REP. 301(2006).
42. McKinsey & Company, Market Dynamics and the Global Fund: Background Research and Analysis (Geneva 2006).
43. Id.
44. Based on the fact that the Global Fund has signed more than 400 grant agreements. See The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, www.theglobalfund.org.
45. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, Guide to the Global Fund's Policies on Procurement and Supply Management 2 (2006), www.theglobalfund.org/pdf/guidelines/ pp_guidelines_procurement_supplymanagement_en.pdf.
46. GLOBAL FUND WORKING GROUP, CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE NEW EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE GLOBAL FUND: SEVEN ESSENTIAL TASKS 17 (2006), www.cgdev.org/doc/HIVAIDSMonitor/GlobalFund_sevenTasks.pdf.
47. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, Price Reporting Mechanism, web.theglobalfund.org/prm/ rc?requesttype=html&topmodel=%5BPRM_ ReportsΡicing_fromLogin_Instruction%5D.
48. GAVI Alliance, www.gavialliance.org.
49. Id.
50. Dagi Kimani, Roche Gives Kenyan Firms Rightfor AIDS Drug, EAST AFRICAN STD, Oct. 23, 2006, available at www.bioportfolio.com/november_06/25_10_2006/ Roche_Gives_Kenyan_Firms.html.
51. Id.
52. McKinsey & Company, Market Dynamics and the Global Fund: Background Research and Analysis (Geneva 2006).
53. SEKHRI, supra note 7, at 11.
54. Id.
55. Id.
56. Id.
57. Id.
58. World Health Organization, Counterfeit Medicines, Fact Sheet 275 (Nov. 14, 2006), www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs275/en/ (last viewed Feb. 29, 2008).
59. Paul Newton et al., Fake Artesunate in Southeast Asia, 357 LANCET 1948, 1949 (2001).
60. MARY MORAN ET AL., THE NEW LANDSCAPE OF NEGLECTED DISEASE DRUG DEVELOPMENT 33-39 (2005).
61. Omar Galárraga et al., Forecast of Demand for Antiretroviral Drugs in Low and Middle-Income Countries: 2007-2008, 21 AIDS S97, S99 (2007).
62. Cathel Kerr, Clinton Foundation Launches New Malaria Test Scheme, 7 LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES 574, 574 (2007).
63. See World Health Organization, WHO Prequalification of Medicines Programme Update for 2006 (2007), www.who.int/prequal/info_general/ documents/Prequal_AnnualRe port2006EN.pdf (describing the WHO's ongoing efforts to work in cooperation with national regulatory agencies and partner organizations to make quality priority medicines available in developing countries throughout the world through its Prequalification Programme).
64. See CHERI GRACE, GLOBAL HEALTH PARTNERSHIP IMPACT ON COMMODITY PRICING AND SECURITY 2-10 (2004), www2.ohchr.org/english/issues/ development/docs/WHO_3.pdf
65. id. at 17.
66. YADAV ET AL., supra note 12, at 11-16.
67. SEKHRI ET AL., supra note 1, at 4.
68. Id. at 3
69. Gian Gandhi, Forecasting the Global Demand for Preventive HIV Vaccines 37 (Int'l AIDS Vaccine Initiative Policy Research Working Paper No. 15, 2007), available at www.iavi.org/global demand.
70. Id. at 2, 28.
71. OWEN BARDER ET AL., AN INTRODUCTION TO RISK & UNCERTAINTY, BACKGROUND PAPER FOR THE GLOBAL HEALTH FORECASTING WORKING GROUP (2006), www.cgdev.org/doc/DemandForecasting/RiskUncertainty.pdf.
72. Id.
73. See Elisabeth Rosenthal, Low-Key Recall of AIDS Drug Hits World's Poor, N.Y. TIMES, July 23, 2007, available at www.nytimes.com/2007/07/23/health/23recall.html.
74. YADAV, supra note 12, at 10.
75. Id.
76. Id.
77. Id.
78. Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization, Immunization Focus, Tough Lessons - and Rapid Reform - for Vaccine Procurement System, www.gavialliance.org/resources/july2002.pdf.
79. GRACE, supra note 63, at 14.
80. Anil Soni & Ira Magaziner, Global Health Council, D.C., Getting More for the Money: How Lower Prices Were Possible, Progress to Date & the Challenges Ahead, www.globalhealth.org/reports/report.php3?id=224.
81. Weekly TB/Malaria Report, Malaria, Other Drugs Set To Expire in Ugandan Storage Facility (Jul 12, 2007), www.globalhealthreporting.org/ article.asp?DR_ID=46170.
82. YADAV, supra note 12, at 24.
83. Id.
84. However, the use of excess inventory has become more restricted even in developed markets as a result of the U.S. Sarbanes-Oxley legislation, which counters "dumping" in the market by preventing drug companies from producing inventory above forecasts. See Thomas Craig, Sarbanes-Oxley and Supply Chain Management, WEBPRONEWS, May 12, 2005, webpronews.com/topnews/2005/05/12/ sarbanesoxley-and-supply-chain-management.
85. Marshall L. Fisher, What Is the Right Supply Chain for Your Product?, 75 HARVARD BUS. REV. 105 (1997).
86. Prashant Yadav, Barriers to Access: An Assessment of Stakeholder Risks and Incentives in the Value Chain for Artemisinin Combination Therapy (ACT) Treatments (Unpublished Working Paper, June 2007), available at ssrn.com/abstract=1008307.
87. Id.
88. Id.
89. Id.
90. Id.
91. Id.
92. Id.
93. Neelam Sekhri et al., Principles for Forecasting Demand for Global Health Products (Center for Global Health Products, Working Paper, 2006), available at www.cgdev.org/forecasting.
94. The infornediary would place particular emphasis on the importance of gathering inputs from existing in-country programs. In turn, they will benefit from better information and technical assistance, which will help enhance country-level forecasting capacity. It is important that countries retain partial ownership in the infornediary through representation.
95. See YADAV, supra note 12.
96. Prashant Yadav & Charles P. Schmidt, Buy-back Contracts and Forecasting Incentives in a Supplier-Retailer Channel (Sept. 2005) (Unpublished Working Paper, Sept. 2005), available at ssrn.com/ abstract=929713.