Ensemble precipitation and water-level forecasts for anticipatory water-system control

Journal of Hydrometeorology

Volumn 9, Issue 4, 2008, Pages 776-788

  van Andel, Schalk Jan ^a   Price, Roland K ^a   Lobbrecht, Arnold H ^a,b   van Kruiningen, Frans ^c   Mureau, Robert ^d  

^a UNESCO IHE INSTITUTE FOR WATER EDUCATION   (Netherlands)

^b HydroLogic   (Netherlands)

^c Rijnland Water Authority   (Netherlands)

^d ROYAL NETHERLANDS METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE KNMI   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; EXTREME EVENT; FLOOD CONTROL; MODELING; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY);

BENELUX; EURASIA; EUROPE; NETHERLANDS; WESTERN EUROPE;

EID: 58049093447     PISSN: 1525755X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2008JHM971.1     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. Atger, F., 2001: Verification of intense precipitation forecasts from single models and ensemble prediction systems. Non-linear Processes Geophys., 8, 401-417.
2. Bálint, G., A. Csík, P. Bartha, and B. Gauzer, 2005: Application of meteorological ensembles for Danube flood forecasting and warning. Trans-Boundary Floods: Reducing Risks and Enhancing Security through Improved Flood Management Planning, Proc. NATO Advanced Research Workshop, J. Marsalek, G. Stancalie, and G. Balint, Eds., Treira S.R.L., 282-293.
3. 2O, 13, 26-29.
4. Bradley, A. A., S. S. Schwartz, and T. Hashino, 2004: Distributions-oriented verification of ensemble streamflow predictions. J. Hydrometeor., 5, 532-545.
5. Buizza, R., P. L. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pellerin, M. Wei, and Y. Zhu, 2005: Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1076-1097.
6. Clark, M. P., S. Gangopadhyay, L. Hay, B. Rajagopalan, and R. Wilby, 2004: The Schaake shuffle: A method for reconstructing space-time variability in forecasted precipitation and temperature fields. J. Hydrometeor., 5, 243-262.
7. ECMWF, cited 2006: The catalogue of ECMWF real-time products. [Available online at www.ecmwf.int/catalogue/catalogue.pdf.]
8. ECMWF, cited 2007: The evolution of the ECMWF analysis and forecasting system. [Available online at www.ecmwf.int/products/data/ operational_system/evolution.]
9. Franz, K., N. Ajami, J. Schaake, and R. Buizza, 2005: Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment focuses on reliable forecasts. Eos, Trans. Amer, Geophys. Union, 86, 239.
10. Hlavcova, K., J. Szolgay, R. Kubes, S. Kohnova, and M. Zvolenský, 2005: Routing of numerical weather prediction system outputs through a rainfall-runoff model. Trans-Boundary Floods: Reducing Risks and Enhancing Security through Improved Flood Management-Planning, Proc. NATO Advanced Research Workshop, J. Marsalek, G. Stancalie, and G. Balint, Eds., Treira S.R.L., 105-116.
11. Krzysztofowicz, R., 2001: The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology. J. Hydrol., 249, 2-9.
12. Legg, T., and K. Mylne, 2003: Numerical weather prediction severe weather early warnings from ensemble forecast information. Forecasting Research Tech. Rep. 415, Met Office, 33 pp.
13. Lobbrecht, A. H., 1997: Dynamic Water-System Control: Design and Operation of Regional Water-Resources Systems. A. A. Balkema, 315 pp.
14. Molteni, F., R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-119.
15. Persson. A., and F. Grazzini, 2007: User guide to ECMWF forecast products. Meteor. Bull., M3.2, 153 pp.
16. Rayner, S., D. Lach, and H. Ingram, 2005: Weather forecasts are for wimps: Why water resource managers do not use climate forecasts. Climatic Change, 69, 197-227.
17. Richardson, D. S., 2000: Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Quart. J Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 649-667.
18. Rijnland, 2000: Study of future hydrological loads (in Dutch). Rijnland Water Board, 71 pp.
19. Roo, A. P. J. de, and Coauthors, 2003: Development of a European flood forecasting system. Int. J. River Basin Manage., 1, 49-59.
20. Roulin, E., 2007: Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 725-737.
21. Roulin, E., and S. Vannitsem, 2005: Skill and medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions. J. Hydrometeor., 6, 729-744.
22. Sattler, K., and H. Feddersen, 2003: Final report for the special project SPDKEFFS: Heavy rain in Europe. Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark, 9 pp.
23. Swinkels, M. A. J., 2004: Control rules for operational management of polder storage basins (in Dutch). Technical University Delft, Netherlands, 64 pp.