What makes the models-policy interaction successful?

Empirical Models and Policy-Making: Interaction and Institutions

Volumn , Issue , 2003, Pages 279-312

  den Butter, Frank A G ^a   Morgan, Mary S ^b,c  

^a VU UNIVERSITY AMSTERDAM   (Netherlands)

^b LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF AMSTERDAM   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 57049166803     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.4324/9780203130490-52     Document Type: Chapter

References (74)

1. D’Alcantara, G., 1988. ‘A comparative analysis of actual Dutch macroeconomic models.' In:Driehuis, W., Fase, M.M.G. and den Hartog, H. (eds.), Challenges for Macroeconomic Modelling. North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 151-214.
2. Barten, A.P., 1988. ‘The history of Dutch macroeconomic modelling (1936-1986).' In: Driehuis, W., Fase, M.M.G. and den Hartog, H. (eds.), Challenges for Macroeconomic Modelling. North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 39-88.
3. Van Bergeijk, P.A.G. and Van Sinderen, J., 1997. Models and macroeconomic policy in The Netherlands. Tinbergen Institute Conference Paper (Chapter 3 in this volume).
4. Bjerkholt, O., 1982. ‘Experiences in using input-output techniques for price calculations.' In:Stäglin, R. (ed.), International Use of Input-Output Analysis. Vandenhoeck and Ruprecht, pp. 113-29.
5. Bjerkholt, O., 1998. ‘Interaction between model builders and policy makers in the Norwegian tradition’, Econ. Model. 15, 317-39 (Chapter 10 in this volume).
6. Bodkin, R.G., Klein, L.R. and Marwah, K., 1991. A History of Macroeconometric Model-building.Edward Elgar, Aldershot.
7. Van den Bogaard, A., 1998. Configuring the economy: The emergence of a modelling practice in The Netherlands 1920-1955. University of Amsterdam, Thesis.
8. Boughton, J.M., 1997. Modelling the world economic outlook at the IMF: a historical review. Tinbergen Institute Conference Paper (Chapter 8 in this volume).
9. Bradley, J., 1997. Policy design and evaluation: EU structural funds and cohesion in the European periphery. Tinbergen Institute Conference Paper (Chapter 9 in this volume).
10. Bray, J., Hall, S., Kuleshov, A., Nixon, J. and Westaway, P., 1995. ‘The interfaces between policy makers, markets and modellers in the design of economic policy: an intermodel comparison’, Econ. J. 105, 989-1000.
11. Bryant, R.C., Henderson, D.W., Holtham, G., Hooper, P. and Symansky, S.A. (eds.), 1988. Empirical Macroeconomics for Interdependent Economies. Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.
12. Bryant, R.C.., Hooper, P. and Mann, C.L. (eds.), 1993. Evaluating Policy Regimes. Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.
13. Den Butter, F.A.G., 1991. ‘Macroeconomic modelling and the policy of restraint in the Netherlands’, Econ. Model. 8, 16-33.
14. Den Butter, F.A.G., 1992. ‘Scope and limitations of statistical methods for macroeconomic forecasting’, Kwantitatieve Methoden 13, 5-21.
15. Centraal Planbureau, 1995. Alternatieve financiering van de sociale zekerheid: Plan van van Elswijk (Alternative financing of social security: the plan by Van Elswijk), CPB Werkdocument No. 79, The Hague.
16. Church, K.B., Mitchell, P.R., Smith, P.N. and Wallis, K.F., 1995. ‘Comparative properties of models of the UK economy’, Natl. Instit. Econ. Rev., pp. 59-72.
17. Coase, R.H., 1937. ‘The nature of the firm’, Economica 4, 386-405.
18. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, 1997. Scanning CPB: A view from the inside, Self-assessment report.
19. Don, F.J.H. and Van den Berg, P.C.J.M., 1990. The Central Planning Bureau of The Netherlands; Its role in the preparation of economic policy. Mimeo, Central Planning Bureau, The Hague.
20. Donders, J. and Graafland, J., 1998. ‘CPB models and employment policy in the Netherlands, Econ. Model. 15, 341-56 (Chapter 2 in this volume).
21. Donihue, M.R. and Kitchen, J., 1997. The Troika process, economic forecasts and macroeconomic policy in the USA. Tinbergen Institute Conference Paper (Chapter 14 in this volume).
22. Duguay, P. and Longworth, D., 1998. ‘Macroeconomic models and policy-making at the Bank of Canada’, Econ. Model. 15, 357-75 (Chapter 5 in this volume).
23. Edison, H.J. and Marquez, J., 1998. US monetary policy and econometric modelling: tales from the FOMC transcripts 1984-1991. Econ. Model. 15, 411-28 (Chapter 12 in this volume).
24. Van Els, P.J.A., 1990. ‘Econometric versus quasiempirical models: macroeconomic policy analysis in the Netherlands’, Econ. Model, 7, 133-47.
25. Van Els, P.J.A., 1997. Policy-making and model development: the case of the Nederlandsche Bank model MORKMON, Tinbergen Institute Conference Paper (Chapter 6 in this volume).
26. Van Elswijk, P., 1996. De markteconomie sociaal ingevuld (Social implementation of the Market Economy).Van Gorcum, Assen.
27. Evans, R.J., 1997. Economic models and economic policy: What economic forecasters can do for the government. Tinbergen Institute Conference Paper (Chapter 13 in this volume).
28. Evans, R.J., 1999. Macroeconomic Forecasting: A Sociological Appraisal. Routledge, London.
29. Fair, R.C. and Shiller, R.J., 1989. ‘The informational content of ex ante forecasts’, Rev. Econ. Stat. 71, 325-31.
30. Fair, R.C. and Shiller, R.J., 1990. ‘Comparing information in forecasts from econometric models’, Amer. Econ. Rev. 80, 375-89.
31. Fisher, P.G., Turner, D.S., Wallis, K.F. and Whitley, J.D., 1990. ‘Comparative properties of models of the UK economy’, Natl. Instit. Econ. Rev., pp. 91-104.
32. Fisher, P.G. and Wallis, K.F., 1990. ‘The historical tracking performance of UK macroeconometric models 1978-85', Econ. Model. 7, 179-97.
33. Faulhaber, G.R. and Baumol, W.J., 1988. ‘Economists as innovators: practical products of theoretical research’, J.Econ. Lit. 26, 577-600.
34. Galison, P., 1997. Image and Logic: The Material Culture of Microphysics. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
35. Habermas, J., 1968. Technik und Wissenschaft als ‘Ideologie’. Suhrkamp Verlag, Frankfort am Main.
36. Henderson, Y.K., 1991. ‘Applications of general equilibrium models to the 1986 tax reform act in the United States’, De Economist 139, 147-68.
37. Kærgård, N., 1997. A history of Danish econometrics. Royal Danish Agricultural University, unpublished paper.
38. Kenway, P., 1994. From Keynesianism to Monetarism: The Evolution of UK Macroeconometric Models.Routledge, London.
39. Latter, A.R., 1979. ‘Some issues in economic modelling at the Bank of England.' In: Ormerod, P. (ed.), Economic Modelling. Heinemann, London, pp. 25-39.
40. Llewellyn, J., Potter, S. and Samuelson, L., 1985. Economic Forecasting and Policy-The International Dimension. Routledge and Kegan Paul, London.
41. Martens, A., 1986. ‘Round-table discussion: The use of models in a policy environment.' In:Martos, B., Pau, L.R. and Zierman, M. (eds.), Dynamic Modelling and Control of National Economies. Pergamon Press, Oxford, pp. 1-5.
42. Mayes, D.G. and Razzak, W.A., 1998. ‘Transparency and accountability: Empirical models and policy-making at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’, Econ. Model. 15, 377-94 (Chapter 7 in this volume).
43. McNees, S.K., 1990. ‘Man vs. model? The role of judgement in forecasting’, N.Engl. Econ. Rev., pp. 41-52.
44. Miles, R. and Snow, C., 1992. ‘Causes of failure in network organizations’, California Managem. Rev., pp. 53-72.
45. Morgan, M.S., 1990. The History of Econometric Ideas. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
46. Mourik, T.J. and Boeschoten, W.C., 1994. ‘A check on the forecast performance of macroeconometric models: a case study for The Netherlands’, Econ Fin. Model. 1, 139-50.
47. Nelson, R.H., 1987. ‘The economics profession and the making of public policy’, J.Econ. Lit. 25, 49-91.
48. Nelson, R.R., 1995. ‘Recent evolutionary theorizing about economic change’, J Econ. Lit. 33, 48-90.
49. Nelson, R.R. and Winter, S., 1982. An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change. Belknap Press, Cambridge, Mass.
50. Nonaka, I., 1991. ‘The knowledge-creating company’, Harvard Business Rev., pp. 96-104.
51. Polak, J.J., 1998. ‘The IMF monetary model at 40, Econ. Model. 15, 395-410 (Chapter 4 in this volume).
52. Polanyi, M., 1958. Personal Knowledge. Routledge, London.
53. Polanyi, M., 1996. The Tacit Dimension. Routledge, London.
54. Review Committee of the CPB, 1997. Scanning CPB; A view from the outside. A review of the research activities and policy analysis undertaken by CPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
55. Siebrand, J.C., 1988. ‘Macroeconomic modelling for economic policy.' In: Driehuis, W., Fase, M.M.G. and Den Hartog, H. (eds.), Challenges for Macroeconomic Modelling. North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 99-149.
56. Siviero, S., Terlizzese, D. and Visco, I., 1997. Are model-based inflation forecasts used in monetary policy-making? A case study. Tinbergen Institute Conference Paper.
57. Smith, R., 1990. ‘The Warwick ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau: An assessment’, Int. J.Forecast. 6, 301-9.
58. Smith, R., 1994. ‘The macromodelling industry; structure, conduct and performance.' In:Hall, S. (ed.) Applied Economic Forecasting Techniques. Harvester Wheatsheaf, New York/London, pp. 68-88.
59. Smith, R., 1998. ‘Emergent policy-making with macroeconometric models, Econ. Model. 15, 429-42 (Chapter 15 in this volume).
60. Tinbergen, J., 1936. ‘Kan hier te lande, al dan niet na overheidsingrijpen, een verbetering van de binnenlandse conjunctuur intreden, ook zonder verbetering van onze exportpositie? In: Prae-adviezen van de Vereeniging voor de Staathuishoudkunde en de Statistiek. Martinus Nijhoff,‘s-Gravenhage, pp. 62-108.
61. Tinbergen, J., 1937. An Econometric Approach to Business Cycle Problems. Hermann and Cie, Paris.
62. Tinbergen, J., 1939. Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories, vol. I and vol. II. League of Nations, Geneva.
63. Turner, D.S., Wallis, K.F. and Whitley, J.D., 1989. ‘Using macroeconometric models to evaluate policy.' In: Britton, A. (ed.), Policy-making with Macroeconomic Models. Gower, Aldershot.
64. Ullmo, Y., 1979. ‘Co-operation between decision makers and experts: the example of mediumterm planning in France.' In: Janssen, J.M.L., Pau, L.F. and Straszak, A. (eds.), Models and decision-making in National Economies. North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp. 15-25.
65. Wallis, K.F. (ed.), 1984. Models of the UK Economy: A Review of the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
66. Wallis, K.F. (ed.), 1987. Models of the UK Economy: A Fourth Review by the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
67. Wallis, K.F., 1989. ‘Macroeconomic forecasting: a survey’, Econ. J. 99, 28-61.
68. Wallis, K.F., 1993. ‘On macroeconomic policy and macroeconometric models, Econ. Rec. 69, 113-30.
69. Wallis, K.F. and Whitley, J.D., 1991a. ‘Sources of error in forecasts and expectations: U.K. economic models, 1984-8, J.Forecast. 10, 231-53.
70. Wallis, K.F. and Whitley, J.D., 1991b. ‘Macro models and macro policy in the 1980s’, Oxford Rev. Econ. Pol. 7, 118-27.
71. Westaway, P.F., 1995. ‘The role of macroeconomic models in the policy design process’, Natl. Instit. Econ. Rev. 1995, 53-63.
72. Whitley, J., 1997. Economic Models: a Flexible Friend for Policy-Makers? Paper for the 10th Anniversary Congress of the Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, published as ‘Economic models and policy-making’ Bank of England Quart. Bull., 1997, May, pp. 163-73.
73. Wren-Lewis, S., 1997. Conflicts between macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis. Tinbergen Institute Conference Paper (Chapter 11 in this volume).
74. Zalm, G., 1998. ‘The relevance of economic modelling for policy decisions’, Econ. Model. 15, 309-16 (Chapter 1 in this volume).