For prediction of elder survival by a Gompertz model, number dead is preferable to number alive

Age

Volumn 30, Issue 4, 2008, Pages 311-317

  Easton, Dexter M ^a   Hirsch, Henry R ^b  

^a FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY   (United States)

Author keywords

Centenarians; Death rate; Gerontology; Gompertz survival; Mortality rate; Supercentenarians

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; GERIATRICS; GOMPERTZ MODEL; GROWTH; HUMAN; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MORTALITY; PREDICTION; STANDARD; SURVIVAL;

EID: 56749180802     PISSN: 01619152     EISSN: 15744647     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11357-008-9073-0     Document Type: Article

References (21)

1. KF Andreev 2004 A method for estimating size of population aged 90 and over with application to the 2000 U.S. census data Demogr Res 11 235 262
2. MY Azbel' 1999 Phenomenological theory of mortality evolution Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 96 3303 3307
3. MY Azbel' 2002 An exact law can test biological theories of mortality Exp Gerontol 37 859 869
4. JC Barrett 1985 The mortality of centenarians in England and Wales Arch Gerontol Geriatr 4 211 218
5. Batschelet E (1971) Introduction to mathematics for life scientists. Springer, New York
6. JR Carey P Liedo D Orozco JW Vaupel 1992 Slowing of mortality rates at older ages in large medfly cohorts Science 258 457 461
7. F Depoid 1972 La mortalité des grands vieillards Population (Paris) 28 755 792
8. DM Easton 1995 Gompertz survival kinetics: fall in the number alive or growth in the number dead? Theor Popul Biol 48 1 6
9. DM Easton 1997 Gompertz growth in number dead confirms medflies and nematodes show excess oldster survival Exp Gerontol 32 719 726
10. Faber JF (2001) Life tables for the United States: 1900-2050. US Department of Health and Human Services, Social Security Administration, SSA Pub No 11-11534, pp 11-12
11. Gavrilov LA, Gavrilova NS (1991) The biology of life span: a quantitative approach. Harwood, London, pp 23-28
12. Gompertz B (1825) On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies. Philos Trans R Soc Lond, pp 313-385
13. HR Hirsch 1994 Can an improved environment cause lifespan to decrease? Comments on lifespan criteria and longitudinal Gompertzian analysis Exp Gerontol 29 119 137
14. PH Jacobson 1964 Cohort survival for generations since 1840 Milbank Mem Fund Q 42 3 36 53
15. Olshansky SJ, Carnes BA (1997) Ever since Gompertz. Demography 34:1-15
16. JE Riggs RJ Millecchia 1992 Mortality among the elderly in the US, 1956-1987: demonstration of the upper boundary to Gompertzian mortality Mech Ageing Dev 62 191 199
17. J-M Robine 2001 A new demographic model to explain the trajectory of mortality Exp Gerontol 36 899 914
18. J-M Robine JW Vaupel 2001 Supercentenarians: slowly ageing individuals or senile elderly? Exp Gerontol 36 915 930
19. Schoen R, Canudas-Romo V (2005) Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy. Demogr Res 13:117-142. http://www.demographic-research.org/ Volumes/Vol13/5/default.htm
20. Statistical Abstracts of Sweden (1991) Official statistics of Sweden. National Central Bureau of Statistics, Stockholm
21. P Vincent 1951 La mortalité des vieillards Population 6 2 181 204