Effects of varying dispersion parameter of Poisson-gamma models on estimation of confidence intervals of crash prediction models

Transportation Research Record

Volumn , Issue 2061, 2008, Pages 46-54

  Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy ^a   Lord, Dominique ^a  

^a Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DISPERSIONS; HIGHWAY ACCIDENTS; HIGHWAY ENGINEERING; POISSON DISTRIBUTION;

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; CRASH PREDICTION; DISPERSION PARAMETERS; GAMMA MODELS; POISSON GAMMAS; PREDICTION MODELLING; PREDICTIVE MODELS; PROBABILISTIC STRUCTURES; SAFETY PERFORMANCE; STATISTIC MODELING;

PARAMETER ESTIMATION;

EID: 56749154884     PISSN: 03611981     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3141/2061-06     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Abbess, C., D. Jarett, and C. C. Wright. Accidents at Blackspots: Estimating the Effectiveness of Remedial Treatment, With Special Reference to the "Regression-to-Mean" Effect. Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol. 22, No. 10, 1981, pp. 535-542.
2. Kulmala, R. Safety at Rural Three- and Four-Arm Junctions: Development and Applications of Accident Prediction Models. VTT Publications 233. Technical Research Centre of Finland. Espoo. 1995.
3. Poch, M., and F. L. Mannering. Negative Binomial Analysis of Intersection-Accident Frequency. Journal of Transportation Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 122, No. 2, 1996, pp. 105-113.
4. Lord, D. The Prediction of Accidents on Digital Networks: Characteristics and Issues Related to the Application of Accident Prediction Models. PhD dissertation. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada, 2000.
5. Miaou, S.-P., and D. Lord. Modeling Traffic Crash-Flow Relationships for Intersections: Dispersion Parameter, Functional Form, and Bayes Versus Empirical Bayes. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1840, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. Washington, D.C., 2003, pp. 31-40.
6. Oh, J., C. Lyon, S. Washington, B. Persaud, and J. Bared. Validation of FHWA Crash Models for Rural Intersections: Lessons Learned. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1840, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2003, pp. 41-49.
7. Miaou, S.-P., and J. J. Song. Bayesian Ranking of Sites for Engineering Safety Improvements: Decision Parameter, Treatability Concept, Statistical Criterion and Spatial Dependence. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 37, No. 4, 2005, pp. 699-720.
8. Caliendo. C., M. Guida, and A. Parisi. A Crash-Prediction Model for Multilane Roads. Accident Analysis & Prevention. Vol. 39, No. 4, 2007, pp. 657-670.
9. Lord, D., S. P. Washington, and J. N. Ivan. Poisson, Poisson-Gamma and Zero Inflated Regression Models of Motor Vehicle Crashes: Balancing Statistical Fit and Theory. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 37, No. 1. 2005. pp. 35-46.
10. Hauer, E. Observational Before-After Studies in Road Safety: Estimating the Effect of Highway and Traffic Engineering Measures on Road Safety. Elsevier Science Ltd., Oxford, England, 1997.
11. Hauer, E. Overdispersion in Modelling Accidents on Road Sections and in Empirical Bayes Estimation. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 33, No. 6, 2001, pp. 799-808.
12. Heydecker, B. G., and J. Wu. Identification of Sites for Road Accident Remedial Work by Bayesian Statistical Methods: An Example of Uncertain Inference. Advances in Engineering Software, Vol. 32, 2001, pp. 859-869.
13. Lord, D., A. Manar, and A. Vizioli. Modeling Crash-Flow-Density and Crash-Flow-V/C Ratio for Rural and Urban Freeway Segments. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 37, No. 1, 2005, pp. 185-199.
14. Miranda-Moreno, L. F., L. Fu, F. F. Saccomanno, and A. Labbe. Alternative Risk Models for Ranking Locations for Safety Improvement. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1908, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2005, pp. 1-8.
15. El-Basyouny, K., and T. A. Sayed. Comparison of Two Negative Binomial Regression Techniques in Developing Accident Prediction Models. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1950, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2006, pp. 9-16.
16. Lord, D., and P. Y-J. Park. Investigating the Effects of the Fixed and Varying Dispersion Parameters of Poisson-Gamma Models on Empirical Bayes Estimates. Research Paper. Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, 2007.
17. Wood, G. R. Confidence and Prediction Intervals for Generalized Linear Accident Models. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 37, No. 2, 2005, pp. 267-273.
18. Agrawal, R., and D. Lord. Effects of Sample Size on Goodness-of-Fit Statistic and Confidence Intervals of Crash Prediction Models Subjected to Low Sample Mean Values. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1950, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2006, pp. 35-43.
19. Cameron, A. C, and P. K. Trivedi. Regression Analysis of Count Data. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 1998.
20. Maher, M. J., and I. Summersgill. A Comprehensive Methodology for the Fitting of Predictive Accident Models. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 28, No. 3, 1996. pp. 281-296.
21. Mitra, S., and S. Washington. On the Nature of Over-Dispersion in Motor Vehicle Crash Prediction Models. Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 39, No. 3, 2007, pp. 459-468.
22. Smyth, G. K. Generalized Linear Models with Varying Dispersion. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol. 51B, 1989, pp. 47-60.
23. Hardin, J. J., and J. M. Hilbe. Generalized Linear Models and Extensions. Stata Press, College Station, Tex., 2001.
24. Persaud, B. N., R. A. Retting, P. E. Garder, and D. Lord. Safety Effect of Roundabout Conversions in the United States: Empirical Bayes Observational Before-After Study. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1751, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2001, pp. 1-8.
25. Persaud, B., D. Lord, and J. Palminaso. Calibration and Transferability of Accident Prediction Models for Urban Intersections. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1784, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2002, pp. 57-64.
26. Lord, D., and J. A. Bonneson. Calibration of Predictive Models for Estimating Safety of Ramp Design Configurations. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1908, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2005, pp. 88-95.
27. Hughes, W., K. Eccles, D. Harwood, I. Potts, and E. Hauer. NCHRP Web Document 62: Development of a Highway Safety Manual. Appendix C: Highway Safety Manual Prototype Chapter: Two-Lane Highways. NCHRP Project 17-18(4). Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2005. http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/nchrp_w62.pdf. Accessed October 2007.
28. SAS Institute Inc. Version 9 of the SAS System for Windows. Cary. N.C., 2002.
29. Kononov, J., and B. K. Allery. Explicit Consideration of Safety in Transportation Planning and Project Scoping. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1897, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2004, pp. 116-125.