Scenarios of diffusion and control of an influenza pandemic in Italy

Epidemiology and Infection

Volumn 136, Issue 12, 2008, Pages 1650-1657

  Rizzo, Caterina ^a,b   Lunelli, A ^c   Pugliese, A ^c   Bella, A ^a   Manfredi, P ^d   Tomba, G Scalia ^e   Iannelli, M ^c   Degli Atti, M L Ciofi ^a  

^a ISTITUTO SUPERIORE DI SANITÀ   (Italy)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BARI   (Italy)

^c UNIVERSITY OF TRENTO   (Italy)

^d UNIVERSITY OF PISA   (Italy)

^e UNIVERSITY OF ROME TOR VERGATA   (Italy)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; INFECTION CONTROL; INFECTION PREVENTION; INFLUENZA; ITALY; PANDEMIC; PREVALENCE; RISK ASSESSMENT; SOCIAL DISTANCE; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; STATISTICAL MODEL; VACCINATION;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGED; ANTIVIRAL AGENTS; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; HUMANS; INFANT; INFLUENZA A VIRUS, H5N1 SUBTYPE; INFLUENZA VACCINES; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; ITALY; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, STATISTICAL; SOCIAL DISTANCE; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 56349100183     PISSN: 09502688     EISSN: 14694409     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S095026880800037X     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Li KS, et al. Genesis of a highly pathogenic and potentially pandemic H5N1 influenza virus in eastern Asia. Nature 2004; 430 209-213.
2. World Health Organization. Outbreak news. Avian influenza, Turkey update. Weekly Epidemiological Record 2006; 81: 42-43.
3. Monto AS. Vaccines and antiviral drugs in pandemic preparedness. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2006; 12: 55-60.
4. Stephenson I, et al. Development and evaluation of influenza pandemic vaccines. Lancet Infectious Diseases 2006; 6: 71-72.
5. Influenza Team ECDPaC. Pandemic preparedness in the European Union - multi-sectoral planning needed. Eurosurveillance 2007; 12: E070222.1.
6. Ferguson NM, et al. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 2005; 437: 209-214.
7. Ferguson NM, et al. Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature 2006; 442: 448-452.
8. Longini IM, et al. Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science 2005; 309: 1083-1087.
9. Germann TC, et al. Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 2006; 103: 5935-5940.
10. Carrat F, et al. A 'small-world-like' model for comparing interventions aimed at preventing and controlling influenza pandemics. BMC Medicine 2006; 4: 26.
11. Colizza V, et al. Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: Baseline case and containment interventions. PLoS Medicine 2007; 4: E13.
12. Cooper BS, et al. Delaying the international spread of pandemic influenza. PLoS Medicine 2006; 3: E212.
13. Flahault A, et al. Strategies for containing a global influenza pandemic. Vaccine 2006; 24: 6751-6755.
14. Istituto Nazionale di statistica. 14th Italian Population and Housing Census. ISTAT 2001 (http://dawinci.istat.it/daWinci/jsp/MD/ dawinciMD.jsp). Accessed 1 May 2007.
15. Istituto Nazionale di statistica. Air transport statistics: 2003. ISTAT 2006 (http://www.istat.it/dati/catalogo/20060509_01/ inf0606statistiche_trasporto_aereo03.pdf). Accessed 1 May 2007.
16. Glezen WP. Emerging infections: Pandemic influenza. Epidemiologic Reviews 1996; 18: 64-76.
17. Diekmann O, Heesterbeek JAP. Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation. New York, NY: Wiley, 2000.
18. Flahault A, et al. Modelling the 1985 influenza epidemic in France. Statistics in Medicine 1988; 7: 1147-1155.
19. Ministero della Salute. National plan for preparedness and response to an influenza pandemic (http://www.ministerosalute.it/imgs/ C_17_pubblicazioni_511_allegato.pdf). Accessed 1 May 2007.
20. Ministero della Salute. Influenza vaccination coverage, 2005 (http://www.ministerosalute.it/promozione/malattie/malattie.jsp). Accessed 1 May 2007.
21. Bella A, et al. FLU-ISS. A sentinel surveillance network for influenza relying on general practitioners and pediatricians. Report for the period 2004 2005. ISS, 2005. Report No. 22.
22. Brownstein JS, Kleinman KP, Mandl KD. Identifying pediatric age groups for influenza vaccination using a real-time regional surveillance system. American Journal of Epidemiology 2005; 162: 686-693.
23. Roberts MG, et al. A model for the spread and control of pandemic influenza in an isolated geographical region. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 2007; 4: 325-330.
24. Viboud C, et al. Influenza epidemics in the United States, France, and Australia, 1972-1997. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2004; 10: 32-39.
25. Viboud C, et al. Multinational impact of the 1968 Hong Kong influenza pandemic: Evidence for a smoldering pandemic. Journal of Infectious Diseases 2005; 192: 233-248.
26. Rizzo C, et al. Trends for influenza-related deaths during pandemic and epidemic seasons, Italy, 1969-2001. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2007; 13: 694-699.