Currency crises in emerging markets: The case of post-liberalization Turkey

Developing Economies

Volumn 46, Issue 4, 2008, Pages 386-427

  Feridun, Mete ^a  

^a LOUGHBOROUGH UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Currency crises; Limited dependent models; Logit; Probit; Turkey

Indexed keywords

BANKING; CAPITAL FLOW; CURRENCY; FINANCIAL CRISIS; FISCAL POLICY; LIBERALIZATION; LOGIT ANALYSIS; MODELING;

EURASIA; TURKEY;

EID: 56349090160     PISSN: 00121533     EISSN: 17461049     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1746-1049.2008.00071.x     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Aghion, Philippe; Philippe Bacchetta; and Abhijit Banerjee. 2001. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints.". European Economic Review. 45, no. 7: 1121-50.
2. Akyüz, Yilmaz, and Korkut Boratav. 2003. "The Making of the Turkish Financial Crisis.". World Development. 31, no. 9: 1549-66.
3. Allen, Mark; Christoph B. Rosenberg; Christian Keller; Brad Setser; and Nouriel Roubini. 2002. A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis. IMF Working Paper no. 02/210. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
4. Arora, Vivek, and Martin Cerisola. 2001. "How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets?". IMF Staff Papers. 48, no. 3: 474-98.
5. Balkan, Erol, and Erinç Yeldan. 1998. "Financial Liberalization in Developing Countries: The Turkish Experience.". In Financial Reform in Developing Countries, ed. JoséM. Fanelli and Rohinton Medhora. Basingtoke: Macmillan.
6. Balkan, Erol, and Erinç Yeldan. 2002. "Peripheral Development under Financial Liberalization: The Turkish Experience.". In The Ravages of Neo-Liberalism: Economy, Society and Gender in Turkey, ed. N. Balkan and S. Savran. New York: Nova Science Publishers.
7. Baum, Christopher F. 2005. "Stata: The Language of Choice for Time-Series Analysis?". Stata Journal. 5, no. 1: 46-63.
8. Boduroglu, Ilkay, and Zeynep Erenay. 2007. "A Pattern Recognition Model for Predicting a Financial Crisis in Turkey: Turkish Economic Stability Index.". International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications. 21, no. 1: 5-20.
9. Boratav, Korkut; A. Erinc Yeldan; and Ahmet H. Köse. 2001. "Turkey: Globalization, Distribution and Social Policy, 1980-1998.". In External Liberalization and Social Policy, ed. Lance Taylor. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press.
10. Calvo, Guillermo A. 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops.". Journal of Applied Economics. 1, no. 1: 35-54.
11. Caprio, Gerard Jr., and Lawrence H. Summers. 1993. "Finance and Its Reform: Beyond Laissez-Faire.". Policy Research Working Papers. no. 1171. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
12. Celasun, Oya. 1998. "The 1994 Currency Crisis in Turkey.". Policy Research Working Papers no. 1913. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
13. Cizre-Sakallioglu, Umit, and Erinç Yeldan. 2000. "Politics, Society and Financial Liberalization: Turkey in the 1990s.". Development and Change. 31, no. 2: 481-508.
14. Clemente, Jesús; Anrtonio Montañés; and Marcelo Reyes. 1998. "Testing for a Unit Root in Variables with a Double Change in the Mean.". Economics Letters. 59, no. 2: 175-82.
15. Edison, Hali J. 2003. "Do Indicators of Financial Crises Work? An Evaluation of an Early Warning System.". International Journal of Finance and Economics. 8, no. 1: 11-53.
16. Eichengreen, Barry, and Ricardo Hausmann. 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility.". Paper presented at the symposium, "New Challenges for Monetary Policy," sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyo., August 26-28.
17. Eichengeen, Barry; Andrew K. Rose; and Charles Wyplosz. 1995. "Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks.". Economic Policy. 10, no. 21: 251-96.
18. Eichengeen, Barry; Andrew K. Rose; and Charles Wyplosz. 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises." NBER Working Paper no. 5681. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research.
19. Feridun, Mete, and Selami Sezgin. 2008. "Regional Underdevelopment and Terrorism: The Case of South Eastern Turkey.". Defence and Peace Economics. 19, no. 3: 225-33.
20. Gazioglu, Saziye. 2003. "Capital Flows to an Emerging Financial Market in Turkey.". International Advances in Economic Research. 9, no. 3: 189-95.
21. Ghoshal, Animesh. 2006. "Anatomy of a Currency Crisis: Turkey 2000-2001.". International Journal of Emerging Markets. 1, no. 2: 176-89.
22. Goldstein, Morris; Gracie Kaminsky; and Carmen M. Reinhart. 2000. Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics.
23. Goldstein, Morris, and Philip Turner. 2004. Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics.
24. Herrera, Santiago, and Conrado Garcia. 1999. "User's Guide to an Early Warning System for Macroeconomic Vulnerability in Latin American Countries.". Policy Research Working Paper no. 2233. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
25. Kaminsky, Graciela L., and Carmen M. Reinhart. 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems.". American Economic Review. 89, no. 3: 473-500.
26. Kibritçioǧlu, Bengi; Bülent Köse; and Gamze Uǧur. 1998. "A Leading Indicators Approach to the Predictability of Currency Crises: The Case of Turkey.". Treasury Staff Papers no. 12. Ankara: Undersecretariat of Treasury.
27. Kipici, Ahmet N., and Mehtap Kesriyeli. 1997. "Reel döviz kuru tanimlari ve hesaplama yöntemleri" [Definitions of real exchange rates and approaches to their estimation]. No. 97/1. Ankara: Araştirma Genel Müdürlügü, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
28. Mariano, Roberto S.; Bulent N. Gultekin; Suleyman Ozmucur; Tayyeb Shabbir; and C. Emre Alper. 2004. "Prediction of Currency Crises: Case of Turkey.". Review of Middle East Economics and Finance. 2, no. 2: 87-107.
29. Özatay, Fatih, and Güven Sak. 2003. "Banking Sector Fragility and Turkey's 2000-01 Financial Crisis.". In Brookings Trade Forum: 2002, ed. Susan M. Collins and Robert Z. Lawrence. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press.
30. Ozkan, F. Gulcin. 2005. "Currency and Financial Crises in Turkey 2000-2001: Bad Fundamentals or Bad Luck?". World Economy. 28, no. 4: 541-72.
31. Özlale, Ümit, and Kivilcim Metin-Özcan. 2007. "An Alternative Method to Measure the Likelihood of a Financial Crisis in an Emerging Market.". Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications. 381: 329-37.
32. Parlaktuna, Inci. 2005. "Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey 1993-2004: An Application of the Girton-Roper Monetary Model.". International Economic Journal. 19, no. 1: 51-62.
33. Perron, Pierre. 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis.". Econometrica. 57, no. 6: 1361-1401.
34. Perron, Pierre, and Timothy J. Vogelsang. 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity.". Journal of Business and Economic Studies. 10, no. 3: 301-20.
35. Shrestha, Min B., and Khorshed Chowdhury. 2005. "A Sequential Procedure for Testing Unit Roots in the Presence of Structural Break in Time Series Data: An Application to Quarterly Data of Nepal 1970-2003.". International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies. 2, no. 2: 31-46.
36. Stiglitz, Joseph E. 1994. "The Role of the State in Financial Markets.". In Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics, ed. Michael Bruno and Boris Pleskovic. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
37. Ucer, Murat; Caroline Rijckeghem; and Reha Yolalan. 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises: A Brief Literature Survey and an Application to Turkey.". Yapi Kredi Economic Review. 9 no. 2: 3-23.
38. van Horen, Neeltje; Henk Jager; and Franc Klaassen. 2006. "Foreign Exchange Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis: A Regression-Based Approach.". Review of World Economics. 142, no. 2: 374-401.
39. Voyvoda, Ebru, and Erinc Yeldan. 2002. "Beyond Crisis Adjustment: Investigation of Fiscal Policy Alternatives in an OLG Model of Endogenous Growth for Turkey.". Paper presented at the VIth METU International Conference in Economics, Ankara, September 11-14.
40. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. 2003. Introductory Econometrics A Modern Approach. Mason, Ohio: South-Western.
41. Yentürk, Nurhan. 1999. "Short-Term Capital Inflows and Their Impact on Macroeconomic Structure: Turkey in the 1990s.". Developing Economies. 37, no. 1: 89-113.
42. Zivot, Eric, and Donald W. K. Andrews. 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis.". Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. 10, no. 3: 251-270.