Stochastic uncertainties and sensitivities of a regional-scale transport model of nitrate in groundwater

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 361, Issue 3-4, 2008, Pages 309-318

  Brink, Cors van den ^a   Zaadnoordijk, Willem Jan ^a   Burgers, Saskia ^b   Griffioen, Jasper ^c  

^a ROYAL HASKONINGDHV   (Netherlands)

^b WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^c TNO   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Groundwater planning; Latin hypercube sampling; Monte Carlo; Negotiation support system; Regional scale groundwater quality modeling; Stochastic uncertainty and sensivity assessment

Indexed keywords

CONCENTRATION (PROCESS); CONTAMINATION; DECISION MAKING; GROUNDWATER; GROUNDWATER POLLUTION; HYDROGEOLOGY; LAND USE; LEACHING; MANURES; MONTE CARLO METHODS; NITRATES; PROBLEM SOLVING; PROCESS ENGINEERING; QUALITY MANAGEMENT; RISK ASSESSMENT; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; STOCHASTIC MODELS; STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING; UNDERGROUND RESERVOIRS; WATER QUALITY;

GROUNDWATER PLANNING; LATIN HYPERCUBE SAMPLING; MONTE CARLO; NEGOTIATION SUPPORT SYSTEM; REGIONAL SCALE GROUNDWATER QUALITY MODELING; STOCHASTIC UNCERTAINTY AND SENSIVITY ASSESSMENT;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

CONCENTRATION (COMPOSITION); GROUNDWATER; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; LAND USE; LEACHING; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; NITRATE; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; STOCHASTICITY; TRANSPORT PROCESS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER QUALITY;

BENELUX; EURASIA; EUROPE; NETHERLANDS; WESTERN EUROPE;

EID: 53549119667     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.08.001     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Anderson M.G., and Bates P.D. Hydrological science: model credibility and scientific integrity. In: Anderson M.G., and Bates P.D. (Eds). Model Validation. Perspectives in Hydrological Science (2001), John Wiley and Sons, Chichester 1-10
2. Beekman, W., Vogelaar, A.J., 1997. Verification of REGIO-NIT; model for simulation of nitrogen load at the land surface and in the groundwater (in Dutch). KIWA Report SWE 97.003. Nieuwegein, The Netherlands, 39pp.
3. Beekman, W., 1998. SPREAD: Prediction of nitrate, hardness, chloride and sulphate in the shallow groundwater (in Dutch). KIWA Report SWE 98.012. Nieuwegein, The Netherlands, 32pp.
4. Blasone R.S., Madsen H., and Rosbjerg D. Uncertainty assessment of integrated distributed hydrological models using GLUE with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Journal of Hydrology 353 (2008) 18-32
5. Brus D.J., and Jansen M.J.W. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of spatial predictions of heavy metals in wheat. Journal of Environmental Quality 33 (2004) 882-890
6. Brusseau M.L. Application of a multiprocess non-equilibrium sorption model to solute transport in a stratified porous medium. Water Resource Research 27 (1991) 589-595
7. De Vries W., Kros J., Oenema O., and de Klein J. Uncertainties in the fate of nitrogen II: a quantitative assessment of the uncertainties in major nitrogen fluxes in The Netherlands. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 66 (2003) 71-102
8. Freeze R.A. A stochastic-conceptual analysis of one-dimensional groundwater flow in non-uniform homogeneous media. Water Resource Research 11 (1975) 725-741
9. GenStat Committee, 2006. Genstat Reference Manual. Release 9. VSN International, Hemel Hempstead, UK.
10. Goedhart, P.W., Thissen, J.T.N.M., 2006. Biometris GenStat Procedure Library Manual, ninth ed. Biometris, Wageningen, The Netherlands [online available at Genstat procedures].
11. Helton J., and Davis F. Latin hypercube sampling and the propagation of uncertainty in analyses of complex systems. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 81 (2003) 23-69
12. Jansen M.J.W., Rossing W.A.H., and Daamen R.A. Monte Carlo estimation of uncertainty contributions from several independent multivariate sources. Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics (1994), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht 334-343
13. Knotters M., and van Walsum P.E.V. Estimating fluctuation quantities from time series of water-table depths using models with a stochastic component. Journal of Hydrology 197 (1997) 25-46
14. Kroeze C., Aerts R., van Breemen N., van Dam D., van der Hoek K., Hofschreuder P., Hoosbeek M., de Klein J., Kros H., van Oene H., Oenema O., Tietema A., van der Veeren R., and de Vries W. Uncertainties in the fate of nitrogen I: an overview of sources of uncertainty illustrated with a Dutch case study. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 66 (2003) 43-69
15. Mood, A.M., Graybill, F.A., Boes, D.C., 1974. Introduction to the Theory of Statistics, third ed. McGraw-Hill Higher Ed, p. 564.
16. Otte, J., 1998. Nitrogen and chloride leaching to shallow groundwater in the recharge area of drinking water site Roosteren, The Netherlands (in Dutch). Kiwa Report SWI 98.129, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands.
17. Refsgaard J.C., Henriksen H.J., Harrar W.G., Scholten H., and Kassahun A. Quality assurance in model based water management - review of existing practice and outline of new approaches. Environment Modelling and Software 20 (2005) 1201-1225
18. Refsgaard J.C., van der Sluijs J.P., Brown J., and van der Keur P. A framework for dealing with uncertainty due to model structure error. Advances in Water Resources 29 (2006) 1586-1597
19. Summers J.K., Wilson H.T., and Kou J. A method for quantifying the predicted uncertainties associated with water quality models. Ecology Modeling 65 (1993) 165-176
20. Tiktak, A., 1999. Modeling non-point source pollutants in soil. PhD Thesis, University of Amsterdam, p. 224.
21. Thorsen M., Refsgaard J.C., Hansen S., Pebesma E., Jensen J.B., and Kleeschulte S. Assessment of uncertainty in simulation of nitrate leaching to aquifers at catchment scale. Journal of Hydrology 242 (2001) 210-227
22. Van den Brink C., Zaadnoordijk W.J., van der Grift B., de Ruiter P.C., and Griffioen J. Using a groundwater quality negotiation support system to change land use management near a drinking-water abstraction in The Netherlands. Journal of Hydrology 350 (2008) 339-356
23. Van der Grift B., and Griffioen J. Modelling assessment of regional groundwater contamination due to historic smelter emissions of heavy metals. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology 96 (2008) 48-68
24. Van Heesen H.C. Presentation of the seasonal fluctuation of the water table on soil maps. Geoderma 4 (1970) 257-278
25. Vink C., and Schot P.P. Simulation of nitrate transport in groundwater to production well Roosteren. EU-LIFE Project PRESYS-GQ, Technical Report 3 (1999) 1-40
26. Zhang H., Haan C.T., and Nofziger D.L. An approach to estimating uncertainties in modeling transport of solutes through soils. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology 12 (1993) 35-50