Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: A case study of Canadian bitumen

Energy Policy

Volumn 36, Issue 11, 2008, Pages 4205-4216

  Méjean, Aurélie ^a   Hope, Chris ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Experience curve; Non conventional oil; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ALTERNATIVE FUELS; BIOFUELS; BITUMINOUS MATERIALS; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATOLOGY; COSTS; ELECTRIC REACTORS; LEARNING ALGORITHMS; OIL SANDS;

CASE STUDIES; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; CONVENTIONAL OILS; CRUDE OIL PRICES; EXPERIENCE CURVE; LEARNING RATES; LEARNING-BY-DOING; NON-CONVENTIONAL OIL; PROBABILISTIC MODEL; PRODUCTION CONSTRAINTS; SUPPLY COSTS; SYNTHETIC CRUDE OIL; UNCERTAINTY;

COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS;

ALTERNATIVE ENERGY; ALTERNATIVE FUEL; BIOFUEL; BITUMEN; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; CRUDE OIL; MODELING; NUMERICAL MODEL; OIL PRODUCTION; OIL SAND; OIL SUPPLY; PROBABILITY; RENEWABLE RESOURCE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

CANADA; NORTH AMERICA;

EID: 53249111246     PISSN: 03014215     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.07.023     Document Type: Article

References (73)

1. Adelman M.A. Mineral depletion, with special reference to petroleum. The Review of Economics and Statistics 72 1 (1990) 1-10. Available from 〈http://links.jstor.org/〉
2. Adelman M.A. Mineral scarcity and depletion: theory and measurement. The Economics of Petroleum Supply: Papers by M.A. Adelman, 1962-1993 (1993), The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
3. Adelman M.A. The real oil problem. Regulation 27 1 (2004) 16-21 Available from
4. Alberta Chamber of Resources, 2004. Oil sands technology roadmap-unlocking the potential. Available from 〈http://www.acr-alberta.com〉.
5. Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (AEUB). Alberta's Energy Reserves 2005 and Supply/Demand Outlook 2006-2015 (2006), Alberta Energy and Utilities Board, Calgary, Alberta
6. Anderson D. Lecture Notes on Renewable Energy and Experience Curves (2005), Imperial College, London
7. Anderson D., and Winne S. Innovation and Threshold Effects in Technology Responses to Climate Change (2003), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Available from 〈http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/wp43.pdf〉
8. Association for the Study of the Peak Oil (ASPO), 2003. Newsletter 26-February 2003. Available from 〈http://www/peakoil.ie〉.
9. Attanasi, E.D., 1995. Economics and the 1995 National Assessment of United States Oil and Gas Resource. US Geological Survey (USGS). United States Geological Survey Circular 1145, Available from 〈http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1998/c1145/c1145.pdf〉.
10. Bencherif, R., 2002. The impact of non-conventional oil developments on conventional crude oil markets. In: IEA Conference on Non-Conventional Oil: Prospects for Increased Production. Available from 〈http://www.iea.org〉.
11. Browne, J., 2006. Energy Security and Climate Change-Speech of BP CEO to Columbia Business School, New York, USA. Available from 〈http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=98&contentId=7025859〉
12. Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR), 2005. Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2005-Annual Report. Available from 〈http://www.bgr.bund.de〉.
13. 2S) emissions by the upstream oil and gas industry. Technical Report, vol. 1, Overview of the GHG Emissions Inventory. Available from 〈http://www.capp.ca/raw.asp?x=1&dt=NTV&e=PDF&dn=86220〉.
14. Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), 2006. Canadian crude oil production and supply forecast 2006-2020. Available from 〈http://www.capp.ca/raw.asp?x=1&dt=NTV&e=PDF&dn=103586〉.
15. Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI), 2005. Economic impacts of Alberta's Oil Sands, vol. 1. Available from 〈http://www.ceri.ca/Publications/documents/OilSandsReport-Final.PDF〉.
16. Centre for Energy, 2007a. What are oil sands and heavy oil? Available from 〈http://www.centreforenergy.com〉.
17. Centre for Energy, 2007b. How are heavy oil and bitumen processed? Available from 〈http://www.centreforenergy.com〉.
18. Chakravorty U. Endogenous substitution among energy resources and global warming. The Journal of Political Economy (1997)
19. Chakravorty U., and Roumasset J. Competitive oil prices and scarcity rents when the extraction cost function is convex. Resources and Energy 12 (1990) 311-320
20. Cupcic F. Recovery factor-the challenges of enhanced recovery (2003). Available from 〈http://www.peakoil.net/iwood2003/ppt/CupcicPresentation.pdf〉
21. DEFRA. The social cost of carbon and the shadow price of carbon: what they are, and how to use them in economic appraisal in the UK (2007). Available from 〈http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/research/carboncost/index.htm〉
22. Dyni, R. John, 2005. Geology and Resources of Some World Oil-Shale Deposits, US Geological Survey (USGS). Available from 〈http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5294/〉.
23. Energy Information Administration (EIA). US coal reserves: a review and update (1996). Available from 〈http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/coal/052995.pdf〉
24. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2007a. Spot prices. Available from 〈http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm〉.
25. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2007b. This week in petroleum. Released on 7 November 2007. Available from 〈http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp〉.
26. Farrell A.E., and Brandt A.R. Risks of the oil transition. Environmental Research Letters 1 014004 (2006) (6pp.)
27. Fattouh B. The Drivers of Oil Prices: The Usefulness and Limitations of Non-Structural model, the Demand-Supply Framework and Informal Approaches (2007), Oxford Institute for Energy Studies WPM32
28. Gielen, D., Unander, F., 2005. Alternative fuels: An energy technology perspective. IEA/ETO Working Paper, International Energy Agency. Available from 〈http://www.iea.org〉.
29. Grand Dictionnaire Terminologique, 2007. Definitions. Available from 〈http://www.granddictionnaire.com/〉.
30. Greene D.L., Hopson J.L., and Li J. Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist's perspective. Energy Policy 34 5 (2005) 515-531
31. Grubb M. Who's afraid of atmospheric stabilization? Making the link between energy resources and climate change. Energy Policy 29 (2001) 837-845
32. Grübler A., Nakicenovic N., and Victor D.G. Dynamics of energy technologies and global change. Energy Policy 27 (1999) 247-280
33. Hartwick J.M. Exploitation of many deposits of an exhaustible resource. Econometrica 46 1 (1978)
34. Hirsch, H.L., Bezdek, R., Wendling, R., 2005. Peaking of world oil production: impacts, mitigation, & risk management. Report to US Department of Energy. Available from 〈http://wwwaspo-australia.org.au//References/hirsch0502.pdf〉.
35. 2 from PAGE2002: An integrated assessment model incorporating the IPCC's five reasons for concern. Integrated Assessment 6 1 (2006) 19-56
36. Hotelling H. The economics of exhaustible resources. The Journal of Political Economy 39 2 (1931) 137-175
37. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Technical Summary. Available from 〈http://www.mnp.nl/ipcc/pages_media/FAR4docs/final_pdfs_ar4/TS.pdf〉.
38. International Energy Agency (IEA). Experience Curves for Energy Technology Policy (2000), Wene, C.O. OECD/IEA, Paris
39. International Energy Agency (IEA). World Energy Outlook 2004 (2004), OECD, Paris
40. International Energy Agency (IEA). Resources to Reserves (2005), OECD/IEA, Paris
41. International Energy Agency (IEA), 2005b. Meeting our energy needs-driving forward coal's role in a clean, clever and competitive energy future. In: IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board Workshop, Paris. Available from 〈http://www.iea.org/〉.
42. International Energy Agency (IEA). Statement on the current oil market situation (2007). Available from 〈http://www.iea.org〉
43. Joint Economic Committee-US Congress. Canadian oil sands: a new force in the world oil market-A Joint Economic Committee Study (2006). Available from 〈http://www.house.gov〉
44. Knapp, D., 2002. Competitiveness relative to conventional oil. In: IEA Conference on Non-Conventional Oil: Prospects for Increased Production, Calgary, Alberta, 25-26 November 2002. Available from 〈http://www.iea.org〉.
45. Krautkraemer, J., Toman, M., 2003. Fundamental economics of depletable energy supply. resources for the future. Discussion Paper 03-01. Available from 〈http://www.rff.org/documents/RFF-DP-03-01.pdf〉.
46. Lindley D.V. Making Decisions. second ed (1985), Wiley, London
47. Margolis R.M. Experience curves and photovoltaic technology policy. In: Human Dimensions of Global Change Seminar (2002), Carnegie Mellon University. Available from 〈http://hdgc.epp.cmu.edu/mailinglists/hdgcctml/mail/ppt00010.ppt〉
48. McDonald A., and Schrattenholzer L. Learning rates for energy technologies. Energy Policy 29 4 (2001) 255-261
49. Meyer, R.F., Attanasi, E.D., 2003. Heavy oil and natural bitumen-strategic petroleum resources. United States Geological Survey (USGS). United States Geological Survey Fact Sheet 70-03. Available from 〈http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs070-03/fs070-03.html〉.
50. Meyer, R.F., Attanasi, E.D., 2004. Extra-heavy oil and natural bitumen: contribution to future energy supply. In: Northeastern Section (39th Annual) and Southeastern Section (53rd Annual) Joint Meeting, 25-27 March 2004. Available from 〈http://www.gsa.confex.com/gsa/2004NE/finalprogram/abstract_69910.htm〉.
51. National Energy Board (NEB). Canada's oil sands: a supply and market outlook to 2015 (2000). Available from 〈http://www.neb.gc.ca〉
52. National Energy Board (NEB). Canada's oil sands-opportunities and challenges to 2015 (2004). Available from 〈http://www.neb.gc.ca〉
53. National Energy Board (NEB). Canada's oil sands-opportunities and challenges to 2015: an update (2006). Available from 〈http://www.neb.gc.ca〉
54. Nordhaus W., and Boyer J. Roll the DICE Again: Economic Models of Global Warming (1999). (Chapter 3). Available from 〈http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/web\%20chap\%203\%20102599.pdf〉
55. Odell P. Dynamics of energy technologies and global change. Energy Policy 27 (1999) 737-742
56. Palisade, 2007. @Risk 4.5 Help.
57. Rehrl T., and Friedrich R. Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: the LOPEX model. Energy Policy 34 15 (2006) 2413-2428
58. Rogner H.-H. An assessment of world hydrocarbon resources. Annual Review Energy Environment 22 (1997) 217-262
59. Roumasset J., Isaak D., and Fesharaki F. Oil prices without OPEC: a walk on the supply-side. Energy Economics 5 3 (1983) 164-170. Available from 〈http://www.sciencedirect.com〉
60. SAUNER, 2000. The SAUNER Project: Overview. Available from 〈http://people.bath.ac.uk/hssam/sauner/overview.html#Methodology〉.
61. Soderbergh B., Robelius F., and Aleklett K. A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry. Energy Policy 35 3 (2007) 1931-1947
62. Stern N. The Economics of Climate Change-The Stern Review (2006), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
63. Stevens P. Oil markets. Oxford Review of Economic Policy 21 1 (2005) 19-42
64. Sweeney J.L. Economic theory of depletable resources: an introduction. In: Allen V.K., and James L.S. (Eds). Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics vol. 3 (1992)
65. Sweeney J.L. Energy economics. International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences (2004) 4513-4520. Available from 〈http://www.sciencedirect.com〉
66. Tsuchiya H., and Kobayashi O. Mass production cost of PEM fuel cell by learning curve. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 29 (2003) 985-990
67. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). World energy assessment: energy and the challenge of sustainability (2000). Available from 〈http://www.undp.org〉
68. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 2005. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data for 1990-2003. Submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Available from 〈http://unfccc.int/〉.
69. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 2007. Parties and Observers. Available from 〈http://unfccc.int/〉.
70. Web dictionary of Cybernetics and Systems, 2007. Decision Theory. Available from 〈http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/ASC/indexASC.html〉.
71. Williams B. Heavy hydrocarbons playing key role in peak-oil debate, future energy supply. Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ) 101 29 (2003). Available from 〈http://ogj.pennnet.com/〉
72. World Energy Council (WEC). Survey of energy resources 2001-natural bitumen and extra-heavy oil (2001). Available from 〈http://www.worldenergy.org/〉
73. World Energy Council (WEC), 2007. Survey of energy resources 2007-natural bitumen and extra-heavy oil: transportation and upgrading. Available from 〈http://www.worldenergy.org/〉.