A measure of the bullwhip effect in supply chains with stochastic lead time

International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology

Volumn 38, Issue 11-12, 2008, Pages 1201-1212

  Duc, Truong Ton Hien ^a   Luong, Huynh Trung ^b   Kim, Yeong Dae ^a  

^a Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)   (South Korea)

^b ASIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (Thailand)

Author keywords

Autoregressive model; Base stock policy; Bullwhip effect; Mixed autoregressive moving average model; Stochastic lead time; Supply chain

Indexed keywords

AMPLIFICATION; SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT;

AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL; BASE STOCK POLICY; BULLWHIP EFFECT; MIXED AUTOREGRESSIVE-MOVING AVERAGE MODEL; STOCHASTIC LEAD TIME; SUPPLY CHAIN;

SUPPLY CHAINS;

EID: 51749084858     PISSN: 02683768     EISSN: 14333015     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00170-007-1170-1     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Forrester JW (1958) Industrial dynamics - a major break-through for decision-making. Harvard Bus Rev 36(4):37-66
2. Blinder AS (1982) Inventories and sticky prices: more on the microfoundations of macroeconomics. Am Econ Rev 72:334-348
3. Blanchard OJ (1983) The production and inventory behavior of American automobile industry. J Polit Econ 91:365-400
4. Burbidge JL (1984) Automated production control with a simulation capability. IFIP Working Paper, WG5(7), Copenhagen
5. Caplin AS (1985) The variability of aggregate demand with (S, s) inventory policies. Econometrica 53:1396-1409
6. Blinder AS (1986) Can the production smoothing model of inventory behavior be saved? Q J Econ 1001:431-454
7. Kahn J (1987) Inventories and the volatility of production. Am Econ Rev 77:667-679
8. Sterman J (1989) Modeling managerial behavior: misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision-making experiment. Manage Sci 35(3):321-339
9. Lee HL, Padmanabhan V, Whang S (1997a) The bullwhip effect in supply chains. Sloan Manage Rev 38(3):93-102
10. Lee HL, Padmanabhan V, Whang S (1997b) Information distortion in a supply chain: the bullwhip effect. Manage Sci 43(3):546-558
11. Graves SC (1999) A single-item inventory model for a non-stationary demand process. Manuf Serv Oper Manage 1:50-61
12. Lee HL, So KC, Tang CS (2000) The value of information sharing in a two-level supply chain. Manage Sci 46(5):626-643
13. Chen F, Drezner Z, Ryan JK, Simchi-Levi D (2000a) Quantifying the bullwhip effect in a simple supply chain. Manage Sci 46(3):436-443
14. Chen F, Drezner Z, Ryan JK, Simchi-Levi D (2000b) The impact of exponential smoothing forecasts on the bullwhip effect. Nav Res Log 47(4):269-286
15. Xu K, Dong Y, Evers PT (2001) Towards better coordination of the supply chain. Transport Res Part E 37(1):35-54
16. Zhang X (2004) The impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect. Int J Prod Econ 88(1):15-27
17. Luong HT (2007) Measure of bullwhip effect in supply chains with autoregressive demand process. Eur J Oper Res 180(3):1086-1097
18. Luong HT, Phien NH (2007) Measure of bullwhip effect in supply chains - The case of high order autoregressive demand process. Eur J Oper Res 183(1):197-209
19. Hosoda T, Disney SM (2006) On variance amplification in a three-echelon supply chain with minimum mean square error forecasting. Omega 34:344-358
20. Duc TTH, Luong HT, Kim YD (2007) A measure of bullwhip effect in supply chains with a mixed autoregressive-moving average demand process. Eur J Oper Res 187(1):243-256
21. Wickner J, Towill DR, Naim M (1991) Smoothing supply chain dynamics. Int J Prod Econ 22(3):231-248
22. Chatfield DC, Kim JG, Harrison TP, Hayya JC (2004) The bullwhip effect - Impact of stochastic lead time, information quality, and information sharing: a simulation study. Prod Oper Manage 13(4):340-353
23. Kim JG, Chatfield D, Harrison TP, Hayya JC (2006) Quantifying the bullwhip effect in a supply chain with stochastic lead time. Eur J Oper Res 173:617-636
24. Alwan LC, Liu JJ, Yao DQ (2003) Stochastic characterization of upstream demand processes in a supply chain. IIE Trans 35:207-219
25. Badinelli RD (1990) The inventory costs of common mis-specification of demand-forecasting models. Int J Prod Res 28(12):2321-2340