Forecasting inbound Canadian tourism: An evaluation of Error Corrections Model forecasts

Tourism Economics

Volumn 10, Issue 3, 2004, Pages 263-280

  Veloce, William ^a  

^a BROCK UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

Author keywords

Error corrections forecasts; Evaluating forecasts; Tourism forecasting

Indexed keywords

ERROR CORRECTION; FORECASTING METHOD; METHODOLOGY; TOURISM MARKET;

CANADA; NORTH AMERICA;

EID: 5144220205     PISSN: 13548166     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5367/0000000041895049     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Archer, B.H. (1987), 'Demand forecasting and estimation', in Ritchie, J.R.B., and Goeldner, C.R., eds, Travel, Tourism and Hospitality Research, J. Wiley, New York.
2. Box, George E.P., and Jenkins, Gwilym M. (1970), Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, and Control, Holden Day, San Francisco, CA.
3. Calantone, Roger J., DiBenedetto, C.Anthony, and Bojanic, David (1987), 'A comprehensive review of the tourism forecasting literature', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 26, No 2, pp 28-39.
4. Clements, Michael P., and Hendry, David F. (1993), 'On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors', Journal of Forecasting, Vol 12, pp 617-637.
5. Engle, R.E., and Granger, C.W.J. (1987), 'Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing', Econometrica, Vol 55, pp 251-276.
6. Engle, R.E., and Granger, C.W.J. (1991), 'Long-run economic relationships', in Readings in Co-Integration, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
7. Franses, Philip H., and Kliebergen, Frank (1996), 'Unit roots in the Nelson-Plosser data: do they matter for forecasting?', International Journal of Forecasting, Vol 12, pp 283-288.
8. Gonzalez, Pilar, and Moral, Paz (1995), 'Analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain', International Journal of Forecasting, Vol 11, pp 233-252.
9. Gustavsson, Patrik, and Nordström, Jonas (2000), 'The impact of seasonal unit roots and vector ARMA modelling on forecasting monthly tourism flows', unpublished manuscript, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research and Stockholm School of Economics, pp 1-24.
10. Holden, K. (1995), 'Vector Auto Regression modeling and forecasting', Journal of Forecasting, Vol 14, pp 159-166.
11. Holt, C.C. (1957), 'Forecasting seasonal trends by exponentially weighted moving averages', Office of Naval Research (Memorandum No 52), Carnegie Institute of Technology.
12. Hylleberg, S., Engle, R.F., Granger, C.W.J., and Yoo, B.S. (1990), 'Seasonal integration and co-integration', Journal of Econometrics, Vol 44, pp 215-238.
13. Johansen, S. (1988), 'Statistical analysis of co-integration vectors', Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol 12, pp 231-254.
14. Kim, Seokchool, and Song, Haiyan (1998), 'Analysis of inbound tourism demand in South Korea: a co-integration and error correction approach', Tourism Analysis, Vol 3, pp 25-41.
15. Kulendran, Nada (1996), 'Modelling quarterly tourist flows to Australia using co-integration analysis', Tourism Economics, Vol 2, No 3, pp 203-222.
16. Kulendran, Nada, and King, Maxwell (1997), 'Forecasting international quarterly tourist flows using error correction and time series models', International Journal of Forecasting, Vol 13, pp 319-327.
17. Kulendran, Nada, and Witt, Stephen F. (2001), 'Co-integration versus least squares regression', Annals of Tourism Research, Vol 28, No 2, pp 291-311.
18. Lathiras, Petros, and Siriopoulas, Costas (1998), 'The demand for tourism to Greece: a co-integration approach', Tourism Economics, Vol 4, No 2, pp 171-185.
19. LeSage, J.P. (1990), 'A comparison of the forecasting ability of ECM and VAR models', Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol 72, pp 664-671.
20. Makridakis, S., and Hibon, M.(2000), 'The M-3 competition: results, conclusions and implications', International Journal of Forecasting, Vol 16, pp 451-476.
21. Nelson, C.R., and Plosser, C.I. (1982), 'Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series', Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol 10, pp 139-162.
22. Sims, C.A. (1980), 'Macroeconomics and reality', Econometrica, Vol 48, pp 1-49.
23. Uysal, M., and Crompton, J.L. (1985), 'An overview of approaches used to forecast tourism demand', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 23, No 3, pp 7-15.
24. Witt, Stephen F., and Martin, C.A. (1987), 'Econometric models for forecasting international tourism demand', Journal of Travel Research, Vol 25, No 3, pp 23-30.
25. Witt, Stephen F., and Witt, Christine A. (1995), 'Forecasting tourism demand: a review of empirical research', International Journal of