How we value the future affects our desire to learn

Ecological Applications

Volumn 18, Issue 4, 2008, Pages 1061-1069

  Moore, Alana L ^a   Hauser, Cindy E ^a   McCarthy, Michael A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

Author keywords

Adaptive management; Discounting; Experimental management; Geometric; Hyperbolic; Intergenerational; Learning

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; COMPARATIVE STUDY; DECISION MAKING; ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY; EXPERIMENTAL STUDY; HARVESTING; LEARNING; NATURE CONSERVATION;

ARTICLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; FORECASTING; LEARNING; POPULATION DENSITY; TIME;

CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; FORECASTING; LEARNING; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DENSITY; TIME FACTORS;

EID: 50549102129     PISSN: 10510761     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/07-0805.1     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Ainsworth, C. H., and U. R. Sumaila. 2005. Intcrgencrational valuation of fisheries resources can justify long-term conservation: a case study in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 62: 1104-1110.
2. Bellman, R., and S. Dreyfus. 1962. Applied dynamic programming. Princeton University Press. Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
3. Carpenter. S., A. Brock, and D. Ludwig. 2007. Appropriate discounting leads to forward- looking ecosystem management. Ecological Research 22:10-11.
4. Chichilnisky, G. 1996. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social Choice and Welfare 13:231-257.
5. Dasgupta, P., and E. Maskin. 2005. Uncertainty and hyperbolic discounting. American Economic Review 95:1290-1299.
6. Dreyfus, S., and A. Law. 1977. The art and theory of dynamic programming. Academic Press, New York. New York, USA.
7. Hansen, A. 2006. Do declining discount rates lead to time inconsistent economic advice. Ecological Economics 60:138-144.
8. Häuser, C, and H. P. Possingham. 2007. Experimental or precautionary? Adaptive harvest management over a range of time horizons. Journal of Applied Ecology 45:72-81.
9. Heal, G. 1998. Valuing the future: economic theory and sustainabilitv. Columbia University Press, New York, New York, USA."
10. Henderson, N., and I. Bateman. 1995. Empirical and public choice evidence for hyperbolic social discount rates and the implications for intergenerational discounting. Environmental and Resource Economics 5:413-423.
11. Henderson, N., and W. Sutherland. 1996. Two truths about discounting and their environmental consequences. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 11:527-528.
12. Hepburn. C. 2003. Hyperbolic discounting and resource collapse. Discussion-Paper No. 159. Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
13. Her Majesty's Treasury. 2004. The green book. Appraisal and evaluation in central government. The Stationary Office, London, UK.
14. Hinrichscn. R. A. 2001. High variability in spawncr-recruit data hampers learning. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 58:769-776.
15. Koopmans, T. 1960. Stationary ordinal utility and impatience. Econometrica 28:287.
16. Laibson, D. 1996. Hyperbolic discount functions, undersaving, and savings policy. Working Paper 5635. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
17. Loewnstein, G., and D. Prelec. 1992. Anomalies in intertemporal choice: evidence and an interpretation. Quarterly Journal of Economics 107:575-597.
18. Ludwig, A. W. D., and S. Carpenter, 2005. Uncertainty in discount models and environmental accounting. Ecology and Society 10(2): article no. 13.
19. McCarthy, M. 2007. Baycsian methods for ecology. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
20. McCarthy, M., and H. P. Possingham. 2007. Active adaptive management for conservation. Conservation Biologv 21:956-963.
21. Shea, K., H, P, Possingham, W. W. Murdoch, and R. Roush. 2002. Active adaptive management in insect pest and weed control: intervention with a plan for learning. Ecological Applications 12:927-936.
22. Silvert, W. 1978. Price of knowledge: fisheries management as a research tool. Journal of the Fisheries Research Board Of Canada 35:208-212.
23. Smith, A., and C. Walters. 1981. Adaptive management of stock-recruitment systems. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 38:690-703.
24. Sumaila, U. R., and C. Walters. 2005. Intergenerational discounting: a new intuitive approach. Ecological Economics 52:135-142.
25. Walters, C. J., and R. Hilborn. 1978. Ecological optimization and adaptive management. Annual Review of Ecology and Systcmatics 9:157-188.
26. Walters, C. J., and C. S. Holling. 1990. Large-scale management experiments and learning by doing. Ecology 71:2060-2068.
27. Weitzman, M. 1998. Why the far-distant future should be discounted at its lowest possible rate. Journal of Environmental Management 36:201-208.
28. Winkler, R. 2006. Does "better" discounting lead to "worse" outcomes in long-run decisions? The dilemma of hyperbolic discounting. Ecological Economics 57:573-582.