Coinfection can trigger multiple pandemic waves

Journal of Theoretical Biology

Volumn 254, Issue 2, 2008, Pages 499-507

  Merler, Stefano ^a   Poletti, Piero ^a,b   Ajelli, Marco ^a,b   Caprile, Bruno ^a   Manfredi, Piero ^c  

^a FONDAZIONE BRUNO KESSLER   (Italy)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TRENTO   (Italy)

^c UNIVERSITY OF PISA   (Italy)

Author keywords

Acute respiratory infections; Infectious diseases; Mathematical modeling; Pandemic influenza

Indexed keywords

BACTERIUM; DISEASE SPREAD; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; IMMUNITY; INFECTIOUS DISEASE; INFLUENZA; NUMERICAL MODEL; PUBLIC HEALTH; RESPIRATORY DISEASE; VIRUS;

ADENOVIRUS; ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; COUGHING; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; HUMAN; INFLUENZA VIRUS; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MIXED INFECTION; MORTALITY; PANDEMIC; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RESPIRATORY TRACT INFECTION; RHINORRHEA; RHINOVIRUS; SNEEZING; SPANISH INFLUENZA; STAPHYLOCOCCUS AUREUS; VIRUS STRAIN;

ADENOVIRIDAE; ADENOVIRIDAE INFECTIONS; ANIMALS; COMMON COLD; COMMUNICABLE DISEASES; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; HUMANS; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; MODELS, STATISTICAL; RESPIRATORY TRACT INFECTIONS; RHINOVIRUS; WORLD HEALTH;

EURASIA; EUROPE; SOUTHERN EUROPE; SPAIN;

ADENOVIRIDAE; ORTHOMYXOVIRIDAE; RHINOVIRUS; STAPHYLOCOCCUS AUREUS;

EID: 50149094282     PISSN: 00225193     EISSN: 10958541     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.06.004     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Adler F.R., and Losada J.M. Super- and coinfection: filling the range. Adaptive Dynamics of Infectious Diseases: In Pursuit of Virulence Management (2002), Cambridge University Press, Cambridege
2. Anderson R.M., and May R.M. Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control (1992), Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK
3. Andreasen V., Lin J., and Levin S. The dynamics of cocirculating influenza strains conferring partial cross-immunity. J. Math. Biol. 35 7 (1997) 825-842
4. Bassetti S., Bischoff W., and Sherertz R.J. Are SARS superspreaders cloud adults?. Emerging Infect. Dis. 11 4 (2005) 637-638
5. Bassetti S., Bishoff W., Walter M., Bassetti-Wyss B.A., Mason L., Reboussin B.A., D'Agostino J.R.B., Gwaltney J.J.M., Pfaller M.A., and Sherertz R.J. Dispersal of Staphylococcus aureus into the air associated with a Rhinovirus infection. Infect. Control Hosp. Epidemiol. 26 2 (2005) 196-203
6. Boni M., Gog J., Andreasen V., and Christiansen F. Influenza drift and epidemic size: the race between generating and escaping immunity. Theor. Popul. Biol. 65 (2004) 179-191
7. Bootsma M.C.J., and Ferguson N.M. The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U.S. cities. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 104 18 (2007) 7588-7593
8. Brundage J.F. Interactions between influenza and bacterial respiratory pathogens: implications for pandemic preparedness. Lancet Infect. Dis. 6 (2006) 303-312
9. Castillo-Chavez C., Hethcote H., Andreasen V., Levin S.A., and Liu W.M. Epidemiological models with age structure, proportionate mixing, and cross-immunity. J. Math. Biol. 89 27 (1989) 233-258
10. Chowell G., Ammon C.E., Hengartner N.W., and Hyman J.M. Estimation of the reproductive number of the Spanish flu epidemic in Geneva, Switzerland. Vaccine 24 (2006) 6747-6750
11. Chowell G., Ammon C.E., Hengartner N.W., and Hyman J.M. Transmission dynamics of the great influenza pandemic of 1918 in Geneva, Switzerland: assessing the effects of hypothetical interventions. J. Theor. Biol. 241 (2006) 193-204
12. Colizza V., Barrat A., Barthélemy M., and Vespignani A. The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 103 7 (2006) 2015-2020
13. Colizza V., Barrat A., Barthélemy M., Valleron A.-J., and Vespignani A. Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: baseline case and containment interventions. PLoS Med. 4 1 (2007) e13
14. Diekmann O., and Heesterbeek J.A.P. Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation (2000), Wiley, New York
15. Edwards D., Man J.C., Brand P., Katsra J.P., Sommerer K., Stone H.A., Nardell E., and Scheuch G. Inhaling to mitigate exhaled bioaerosols. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 101 50 (2004) 17383-17388
16. Ferguson N.M., Cummings D.A., Cauchemez S., Fraser C., Riley S., Meeyai A., Iamsirithaworn S., and Burke D.S. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 437 (2005) 209-214
17. Ferguson N.M., Cummings D.A., Fraser C., Cajka J.C., and Cooley P.C. Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature 442 (2006) 448-452
18. Fine P., and Clarkson J. Measles in England and Wales-i: an analysis of factors underlying seasonal patterns. Int. J. Epidemiol. 11 (1982) 5-14
19. Flahault A., Letrait S., Blin P., Hazout S., Menares J., and Valleron J. Modelling the 1985 influenza epidemic in France. Stat. Med. 7 (1988) 1147-1155
20. Flahault A., Vergu E., Coudeville L., and Grais R.F. Strategies for containing a global influenza pandemic. Vaccine 24 (2006) 6751-6755
21. Fox J., Cooney M., Hall C., and Hjordis M. Rhinoviruses in Seattle families. Am. J. Epidemiol. 122 5 (1985) 830-846
22. Germann T.C., Kadau K., Longini I.M.J., and Macken C.A. Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 103 15 (2006) 5935-5940
23. Goldmann D.A. Epidemiology and prevention of pediatric viral respiratory infections in health-care institutions. Emerging Infect. Dis. 7 2 (2001)
24. Hamparian, V., Conant, R., Thomas, D., 1970. Rhinovirus Reference Laboratory, annual contract progress report to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease. Technical Report, National Institutes of Health. Contract No. 69-2062.
25. Hatchett R.J., Mecher C.E., and Lipsitch M. Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 104 18 (2007) 7582-7587
26. Heikkinen T., and Jrvinen A. The common cold. Lancet 361 (2003) 51-59
27. Hemmes J., Winkler K., and Kooi S. Virus survival as a seasonal factor in influenza and poliomyelitis. Nature 188 (1960) 430-431
28. Lloyd-Smith J.O., Schreiber S.J., Koop P.E., and Getz W.M. Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence. Nature 438 (2005) 355-359
29. Longini I.M.J., Halloran M.E., Nizam A., and Yang Y. Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am. J. Epidemiol. 159 7 (2004) 623-633
30. Longini I.M.J., Nizam A., Xu S., Ungchusak K., Hanshaoworakul W., Cummings D.A., and Halloran M.E. Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science 309 5737 (2005) 1083-1087
31. May R.M., and Nowak M.A. Coinfection and the evolution of parasite virulence. Proc. Biol. Sci. 264 1391 (1995) 209-215
32. Mills C.E., Robins J.M., and Lipsitch M. Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature 432 (2004) 904-906
33. Reed S. The aetiology and epidemiology of common cold, and the possibilities of prevention. Clin. Otolaryngol. 6 (1981) 379-387
34. Riley S. Large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious disease. Science 316 5829 (2007) 1298-1301
35. Rvachev L., and Longini I.J. A mathematical model for the global spread of influenza. Math. Biosci. 75 (1985) 3-22
36. Smallman-Raynor M., Johnson N., and Cliff A.D. The spatial anatomy of an epidemic: influenza in London and the county boroughs of England and Wales 1918-1919. Trans. Inst. Br. Geogr. 27 (2002) 452-470
37. Viboud C., Boelle P., Carrat F., Valleron A., and Flahault A. Prediction of the spread of influenza epidemics by the method of analogues. Am. J. Epidemiol. 158 10 (2003) 996-1006