Democratization and war in political science

Democratization

Volumn 15, Issue 3, 2008, Pages 509-524

  Cederman, Lars Erik ^a   Hug, Simon ^a   Wenger, Andreas ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

Democratization; International relations; Neighbourhoods; War

Indexed keywords

EID: 46249121328     PISSN: 13510347     EISSN: 1743890X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13510340801972247     Document Type: Article

References (101)

1. Thomas Carothers, Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution Press, 2000).
2. See, for example, Michael Mann, Incoherent Empire (London: Verso, 2005);
3. David Sylvan and Stephen Majeski, US Foreign Policy in Perspective: Clients, Enemies, and Empire (London: Routledge, forthcoming, 2008).
4. Michael Mann, The Dark Side of Democracy: Explaining Ethnic Cleansing (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005).
5. Kenneth N. Waltz, Man, the State and War (New York: Columbia University Press, 1959);
6. Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1979).
7. David Baldwin (ed.), Neorealism and Neoliberalism (New York: Columbia University Press, 1993).
8. See, for example, Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993).
9. For a review, see Steve Chan, 'In Search of Democratic Peace: Problems and Promise', Mershon International Studies Review, Vol. 41, No. 59-61 (1997), pp. 59-91.
10. Sebastian Rosato, 'The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory', American Political Science Review Vol. 97, No. 4 (2003), pp. 582-602.
11. Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991).
12. Michael Mann, 'The Dark Side of Democracy: The Modern Tradition of Ethnic and Political Economy', New Left Review, No. 235, May-June, (1999), pp. 18-45; Mann (note 3).
13. Fareed Zakaria, 'The Rise of Illiberal Democracy', Foreign Affairs Vol. 76, No. 6 (1997), pp. 22-43.
14. Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, 'Democratization and the Danger of War' International Security, Vol. 20, No. 1 (1995), pp. 5-38.
15. See also Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, 'Democratization and War', Foreign Affairs, Vol. 74 No. 3 (1995), pp. 79-98.
16. Ibid., p. 36.
17. Ibid.
18. Valerie Bunce, 'Rethinking Recent Democratization: Lessons from the Postcommunist Experience', World Politics, Vol. 55, No. 4 (2003), pp. 167-92.
19. Samuel P. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1968).
20. Mansfield and Snyder, 'Democratization and the Danger of War' (note 11).
21. Ibid.
22. Ibid. pp. 12-19.
23. Andrew Enterline, 'Driving While Democratizing', International Security, Vol. 20, No. 4 (1996), pp. 183-96;
24. William R. Thompson and Richard Tucker, 'Bewitched, Bothered, and Bewildered: A Reply to Farber and Gowa and to Mansfield and Snyder', Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 41, No. 3 (1997), pp. 462-77.
25. See also William R. Thompson and Richard Tucker, 'A Tale of Two Democratic Peace Critiques', Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 41, No. 3 (1997), pp. 428-54.
26. Reinhard Wolf, 'To the Editors', International Security, Vol. 20, No. 4 (1996), pp. 176-80.
27. Michael D. Ward and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 'Democratizing for Peace', American Political Science Review, Vol. 92, No. 1 (1998), pp. 51-62. 'Smooth democratization' means a linear change from autocratic to democratic forms of government (p. 54); 'oscillating democratization' is defined as an alternation between democratic and non-democratic forms of government (p. 54); 'gradual' means a change by minor steps toward political democracy in contrast to rapid changes (p. 55).
28. Thompson and Tucker, 'A Tale of Two Democratic Peace Critiques' (note 19).
29. Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, 'A Reply to Thompson and Tucker', Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 41, No. 3 (1997), pp. 457-61.
30. Thompson and Tucker, 'A Tale of Two Democratic Peace Critiques' (note 19).
31. Wolf (note 20).
32. Mansfield and Snyder, 'Democratization and War' (note 11).
33. Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, 'Democratic Transitions, Institutional Strength, and War,' International Organization, Vol. 56, No. 2 (2002), pp. 297-337;
34. Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, Electing to Fight. Why Emerging Democracies Go to War (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005).
35. Mansfield and Snyder, 'Democratic Transitions, Institutional Strength, and War' (note 27).
36. Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, 'The Sequencing 'Fallacy', Journal of Democracy Vol. 18, No. 3 (2007), pp. 5-9.
37. Thomas Carothers, 'The "Sequencing" Fallacy', Journal of Democracy Vol. 18, No. 1 (2007), pp. 12-27.
38. Roland Paris, At War's End. Building Peace after Civil Conflict (Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, 2004).
39. To explain the causes of war, Kenneth N. Waltz distinguished in his seminal 1959 book, Man, the State, and War: A Theoretical Analysis (New York: Columbia University Press, 1959) three levels of analysis. According to this distinction, first-image approaches explain war on the individual level with human behaviour. Second-image approaches focus on the nation-state level and explain war by reference to the internal political structures and institutional character of states. Third-image approaches focus on the level of the international state system, explaining war by the behaviour of states - meaning clash of interests among them, as well as the international state system's inherent asymmetries.
40. See also J. David Singer, 'Review: International Conflict: Three Levels of Analysis', World Politics, Vol. 12, No. 3 (1960), pp. 453-61.
41. Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule. Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies (Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986).
42. Barbara Geddes, 'Initiation of New Democratic Institutions in Eastern Europe and Latin America', in Arend Lijphart and Carlos H. Waisman (eds), Institutional Design in New Democracies (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1996), pp. 15-41;
43. Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996);
44. Valerie Bunce, 'Comparative Democratization. Big and Bounded Generalizations', Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 33, No. 6-7 (2000), pp. 703-34.
45. Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America (Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, 1991).
46. Huntington (note 15).
47. Dankwart Rustow, 'Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model' Comparative Politics, Vol. 2, No. 3 (1970), pp. 337-63. The current debate between 'sequentialists' and 'gradualists' builds on similar ideas.
48. Eric A. Nordlinger, Conflict Regulation in Divided Societies (Cambridge, MA: Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 1972);
49. Alvin Rabushka and Kenneth A. Shepsle, Politics in Plural Societies: A Theory of Democratic Instability (Columbus, OH: C. E. Merrill, 1972).
50. Arend Lijphart, 'Consociational Democracy', World Politics, Vol. 21, No. 2 (1969), pp. 207-25;
51. Arend Lijphart, The Politics of Accommodation: Pluralism and Democracy in the Netherlands (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1975).
52. Later work by Lehmbruch and Steiner emphasized concordance and amicable agreements. See Gerhard Lehmbruch, Proporzdemokratie. Politisches System und politische Kultur in der Schweiz und in Österreich (Tübingen: Mohr, 1967)
53. and Jürg Steiner, Amicable Agreement versus Majority Rule: Conflict Resolution in Switzerland (Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press, 1974).
54. Moreover, Lijphart extended the basic ideas to other contexts, possibly overreaching somewhat, see Arend Lijphart, Democracy in Plural Societies (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1977). This literature attracted considerable critique.
55. Some authors raised the question whether consociationalism was not by definition inimical to democracy, see Brian Barry, 'Review Article: Political Accommodation and Consociational Democracy', British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 5, No. 4 (1975), pp. 477-505;
56. Ian Lustick, 'Stability in Deeply Divided Societies: Consociationalism versus Control', World Politics, Vol. 31, No. 3 (1979), pp. 325-44.
57. See, for example, Joan Linz, The Failure of Presidential Democracy (Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1994).
58. See, for example, Daniel J. Elazar (ed.), Federalism and Political Integration (Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 1984).
59. Linz (note 39).
60. See, for example, Lake David A. and Donald Rothchild, 'Territorial Decentralization and Civil War Settlements', in Philip G. Roeder and Donald Rothchild (eds), Sustainable Peace: Power and Democracy after Civil Wars (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2005) pp. 109-32.
61. Donald Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1985).
62. See, for example, Frank S. Cohen, 'Proportional Versus Majoritarian Ethnic Conflict Management in Democracies' Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 30, No. 5 (1997), pp. 607-30;
63. Stephen M. Saideman, David J. Lanoue, Campenni Michael, and Samuel Stanton, 'Democratization, Political Institutions, and Ethnic Conflict: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis, 1985-1998', Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 35, No. 1 (2002), pp. 103-29.
64. See, for example, Marta Reynal-Querol, 'Ethnicity, Political Systems, and Civil Wars.' Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 46, No. 1 (2002), pp. 29-54;
65. Patrick M. Regan and Daniel Norton, 'Greed, Grievance, and Mobilization in Civil Wars', Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49, No. 3 (2005), pp. 319-36.
66. Cohen (note 44).
67. James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War', American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 1 (2003), pp. 1-17
68. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, 'Greed and Grievance in Civil Wars', Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 56, No. 4 (2004), pp. 563-95.
69. Håvard Hegre, Tanja Ellingsen, Scott Gates and Nils Petter Gleditsch, 'Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816-1992', American Political Science Review, Vol. 95, No. 1 (2001), pp. 33-48.
70. Regan and Norton (note 45) find a similar relationship for the effect of the level of democracy on protest, rebellions and civil wars.
71. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, All International Politics is Local: The Diffusion of Conflict, Integration, and Democratization (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 2002).
72. As discussed in the next section, Gleditsch also studies in an innovative way how the level of democracy in the surrounding countries affects the outbreak of civil wars.
73. See, for example, James Raymond Vreeland, 'The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War: Unpacking Anocracy', unpublished manuscript (Yale, CT: Yale University, 2007), forthcoming in the Journal of Conflict Resolution (2008).
74. 'Anocracy' refers to the fact that many 'polities have mixed authority traits, and thus can have middling scores on both Autocracy and Democracy scales. These are the kinds of polities' which are characterized as "icanocratic" and "incoherent" in the Polity I studies. As a group they proved to less durable than coherent democracies and autocracies.' Polity IV, User's Manual 2002 (University of Maryland, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management), p. 15.
75. Ibid., pp. 10-14.
76. Shawn Treier and Simon Jackman, 'Democracy as a LatentVariable', Paper presented at theMidwest Political ScienceAssociationAnnualMeeting, 3-6April 2003, Chicago.Arelated critique is offered byGary Goertz, Social Science Concepts: A User's Guide (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006).
77. Immanuel, Kant, 'Perpetual Peace: A Philosophical Sketch', in Hans Reiss (ed.), H. B. Nisbet (trans.), Kant's Political Writings (Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, [1795] 1970), pp. 93-130.
78. Lars-Erik Cederman, 'Back to Kant: Reinterpreting the Democratic Peace as a Macrohistorical Learning Process', American Political Science Review, Vol. 95, No. 1 (2001), pp. 15-31.
79. See, for example, Andrew Hurrell, 'Kant and the Kantian Paradigm in International Relations', Review of International Studies, Vol. 16, No. 3 (1990), pp. 183-205;
80. Wade Huntley, 'Kant's Third Image: Systemic Sources of the Liberal Peace', International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 40, No. 1 (1996), pp. 45-76.
81. See especially I. Kant, 'Idea for a Universal History with a Cosmopolitan Purpose', in Hans Reiss (ed.), H. B. Nisbet (trans.), Kant's Political Writings (Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, [1784] 1970), pp. 41-53.
82. See, for example, David A. Lake, 'Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War', American Political Science Review, Vol. 86, No. 1 (1992), pp. 24-37.
83. Craig Calhoun, Nationalism (Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press, 1997);
84. F. H. Hinsley, Nationalism and the International System (London: Hodder and Stoughton, 1973).
85. Lars-Erik Cederman, Emergent Actors in World Politics: How States and Nations Develop and Dissolve (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997).
86. Robert A. Dahl, Democracy and its Critics (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1989).
87. Rogers, Brubaker, Citizenship and Nationhood in France and Germany (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1992), pp. 409-28.
88. Lars-Erik Cederman, 'Nationalism and Ethnicity', in Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth Simmons (eds), The Handbook of International Relations (London: Sage, 2002).
89. Andreas Wimmer and Brian Min, 'From Empire to Nation-State: Explaining Wars in the Modern World, 1816-2001', American Sociological Review Vol. 71, No. 6 (2006), pp. 867-97.
90. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Michael D. Ward, 'Diffusion and the Spread of Democratic Institutions', in Frank Dobbins, Geoffrey Garrett, and Beth Simmons (eds), The Global Diffusion of Democracy and Markets (Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, forthcoming), p. 269.
91. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Michael D. Ward, 'War and Peace in Space and Time: The Role of Democratization', International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 44, No. 1 (2000), pp. 1-29.
92. Computational modelling also allows for spatially explicit analysis, see Lars-Erik Cederman and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 'Conquest and Regime Change: An Evolutionary Model of the Spread of Democracy and Peace', International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 48, No. 3 (2004), pp. 603-29. 69. For a more general introduction to the method, see Nathaniel Beck, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Kyle Beardsley, 'Space is more than Geography: Using Spatial Econometrics in the Study of Political Economy', International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 50, No. 1 (2006), pp. 27-44.
93. Mansfield and Snyder (note 11).
94. Gleditsch (note 50), Table 4.4.
95. Ibid., p. 117.
96. See also Jack S. Levy, 'The Diversionary Theory of War', in M. I. Midlarsky (ed.), Handbook of War Studies, (Boston, MA: Unwin Hyman, 1989), pp. 259-88.
97. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Idean Salehyan, and Kenneth Schultz, 'Fighting at Home, Fighting Abroad: How Civil Wars Lead to International Disputes', unpublished paper, University of Essex, 2007.
98. Myron Weiner, 'The Macedonian Syndrome: An Historical Model of International Relations and Political Development', World Politics Vol. 23, No. 4 (1971), pp. 665-83.
99. Mansfield and Snyder (note 27).
100. Judith Vorrath, Lutz Krebs and Dominic Senn, 'Linking Ethnic Conflict and Democratization: An Assessment of Four Troubled Regions', National Center of Competence in Research, Challenges to Democracy in the 21st Century, Working Paper No. 6, University of Zurich, available at http://www.nccr-democracy.uzh.ch/nccr/publications/workingpaper/pdf/ WP6.pdf (accessed 19 Nov. 2007).
101. Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996).