Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices

International Journal of Wildland Fire

Volumn 17, Issue 3, 2008, Pages 305-316

  Preisler, Haiganoush K ^a   Chen, Shyh Chin ^a   Fujioka, Francis ^a   Benoit, John W ^a   Westerling, Anthony L ^b  

^a PACIFIC SOUTHWEST RESEARCH STATION   (United States)

^b Sierra Nevada Research Institute   (United States)

Author keywords

FWI; Model appraisal; Mutual information; NFDRS; Semi parametric logistic regression; Spline functions

Indexed keywords

EID: 45849101197     PISSN: 10498001     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1071/WF06162     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Andrews PL, Bradshaw LS (1997) FIRES: fire information retrieval and evaluation system - a program for fire danger rating analysis. USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Research Station, General Technical Report INT-367. (Ogden, UT)
2. Brillinger DR (2004) Some data analyses using mutual information. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics 18, 163-182.
3. Brillinger DR, Preisler HK, Benoit JW (2003) Risk assessment: a forest fire example. In 'Science and Statistics, Institute of Mathematical Statistics Lecture Notes'. (Ed. DR Goldstein) Monograph Series, pp. 177-196. (IMS: Bethesda, MD)
4. Brillinger DR, Preisler HK, Benoit JW (2006) Probabilistic risk assessment for wildfires. Environmentrics 17, 623-633. doi:10.1002/ENV.768
5. Burgan RE (1988) 1988 Revisions to the 1978 National Fire-Danger Rating System. USDA Forest Service, South eastern Forest Experiment Station, Research Paper SE-273. (Asheville, NC)
6. Chen S-C (2001) Model mismatch between global and regional simulation. Geophysical Research Letters 29(5), 4.1-4.4.
7. Chen S-C, Roads JO, Juang H-MH, Kanamitsu M (1999) Global to regional simulations of California wintertime precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 104(D24), 31517-31532. doi:10.1029/1998JD200043
8. Deeming JE, Burgan RE, Cohen JD (1977) The National Fire-Danger Rating System - 1978. USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, General Technical Report INT-39. (Ogden, UT)
9. Efron B, Tibshirani R (1993) 'An Introduction to the Bootstrap.' (Chapman Hall: New York)
10. Fosberg MA (1978) Weather in wildland fire management: the fire weather index. In 'Proceedings of the Conference on Sierra Nevada Meteorology', 19-21 June 1978, South Lake Tahoe, NV. pp. 1-4. (American Meteorological Society and USDA Forest Service: Boston, MA)
11. Fujioka FM, Tsou T-H (1985) Probability modelling of a fire weather index. In 'Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology', 29 April-2 May 1985, Detroit, MI. (Eds LR Donoghue, RE Martin) pp. 239-243. (Society of American Foresters: Bethesda, MD)
12. Hastie TJ, Tibshirani R, Friedman J (2001) 'The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction.' (Springer: New York)
13. Higgins R, Shi W, Yarosh E, Joyce R (2000) Improved US precipitation quality control system and analysis. In 'NCEP/CPC Atlas 7'. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Boulder, CO)
14. Hoadley JL, Westrick K, Ferguson SA, Goodrick SL, Bradshaw L, Werth P (2004) The effect of model resolution in predicting meteorological parameters used in fire danger rating. Journal of Applied Meteorology 43, 1333-1347. doi:10.1175/JAM2146.1
15. Hoadley JL, Rorig ML, Bradshaw L, Ferguson SA, Westrick KJ, Goodrick SL, Werth P (2006) Evaluation of MM5 model resolution when applied to prediction of National Fire Danger Rating indexes. International Journal of Wildland Fire 15, 147-154. doi:10.1071/WF05015
16. Hong S-Y, Pan H-L (1996) Non-local boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium range forecast model. Monthly Weather Review 124(10), 2322-2339. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124〈2322:NBLVDI〉2.0.CO;2
17. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S (1989) 'Applied Logistic Regression.' (Wiley: New York)
18. Juang H-MH, Kanamitsu M (1994) The NMC nested regional spectral model. Monthly Weather Review 122, 3-26. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1994) 122〈0003:TNNRSM〉2.0.CO;2
19. Juang H-MH, Hong S, Kanamitsu M (1997) The NMC regional spectral model. An update. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78, 2125-2143. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078〈2125:TNRSMA〉 2.0.CO;2
20. Kalnay EM, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds B, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77, 437-471. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996) 077〈0437:TNYRP〉2.0.CO;2
21. NWCG Fire Weather Working Team (2005) National Fire Danger Rating System weather station standards. Publication of the National Wildfire Coordinating Group, PMS 426-3. Available at http://www.fs.fed.us/ raws/standards/ NFDRS_final_revmay05.pdf [Verified 7 May 2008]
22. Preisler HK, Westerling AL (2007) Statistical model for forecasting monthly large wildfire events in Western United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 46(7), 1020-1030. doi:10.1175/JAM2513.1
23. Preisler HK, Brillinger DR, Burgan RE, Benoit JW (2004) Probability-based models for estimating wildfire risk. International Journal of Wildland Fire 13, 133-142. doi:10.1071/WF02061
24. R Development Core Team (2004) 'R: a language and environment for statistical computing.' (R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna, Austria) Available at http://www.R-project.org [Verified 7 May 2008]
25. Roads JO, Chen S-C, Fujioka F, Kanamitsu M, Juang H-MH (1995) Global to regional fire weather forecasts. International Forest Fire News 17, 33-37.
26. Roads JO, Chen S-C, Kanamitsu M (2003) US regional climate simulations and seasonal forecasts. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 108(D16), 8606. doi:10.1029/2002JD002232
27. Roads JO, Fujioka F, Chen S-C, Burgan RE (2005) Seasonal fire danger forecasts for the USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire 14, 1-18. doi:10.1071/WF03052
28. Simard AJ, Eenigburg JE, Hobrla SL (1987) Predicting extreme fire potential. In 'Proceedings Ninth National Conference on Fire and Forest Methodology', 21-24 April 1987, San Diego, CA. pp. 148-157. (American Meteorological Society: Boston, MA)
29. Westerling AL, Gershunov A, Cayan DR (2003) Statistical forecasts of the 2003 western wildfire season using canonical correlation analysis. Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin 12, 1-2.
30. Wilks DS (1995) 'Statistical Methods in Atmospheric Sciences.' (Academic Press: London)