How certain is desiccation in west African Sahel rainfall (1930-1990)?

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

Volumn 113, Issue 7, 2008, Pages

  Chappell, Adrian ^a   Agnew, Clive T ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SALFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATOLOGY; GRADIENT METHODS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; RAIN; STATISTICAL METHODS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

DESICCATION; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; ESTIMATION METHOD; RAINFALL; SIMULATION; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; VARIOGRAM;

AFRICA; SAHEL [SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA]; SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA;

EID: 45749108234     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2007JD009233     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Agnew, C. T. (1989), Sahel drought: Meteorological or agricultural?, Int. J. Climatol., 9, 371-382.
2. Bradley, R. S., H. F. Diaz, J. K. Eischeid, P. D. Jones, P. M. Kelly, and C. M. Goodess (1987), Precipitation fluctuations over northern hemisphere land areas since the mid-19th century, Science, 237, 171-175.
3. Chappell, A., and C. T. Agnew (2001), Geostatistical analysis of west African Sahel Rainfall, in Land Degradation, edited by A. Conacher, pp. 19-36, Kluwer Acad., London.
4. Chappell, A., and M. Ekström (2005), The importance of de-clustering and uncertainty in climate data: a case study of west African Sahel rainfall, in Quantitative Geology and Geostatistics, vol. 14, edited by O. Leuangthong and C. Deutsch, pp. 853-863, Springer, New York.
5. Chappell, A., and M. A. Oliver (1997), Geostatistical analysis of soil redistribution in SW Niger, West Africa, in Quantitative Geology and Geostatistics, vol. 8/2, edited by E. Y. Baafi and N. A. Schofield, pp. 961-972, Springer, New York.
6. Chappell, A., M. A. Oliver, A. Warren, C. T. Agnew, and M. Charlton (1996), Examining the factors controlling the spatial scale of variation in soil redistribution processes from south-west Niger, in Advances in Hillslope Processes, edited by M. G. Anderson and S. M. Brooks, pp. 429-449, John Wiley, Chichester, U.K.
7. Chappell, A., J. W. Seaquist, and L. R. Eklundh (2001), Improving geostatistical noise estimation in NOAA AVHRR NDVI images, Int. J. Remote Sens., 22(6), 1067-1080.
8. Chappell, A., G. McTainsh, C. Strong, and J. Leys (2003a), Simulations to optimise sampling of aeolian sediment transport for mapping in space and time, Earth Surf. Processes Landforms, 28, 1223-1241.
9. Chappell, A., G. L. Heritage, I. C. Fuller, A. R. J. Large, and D. J. Milan (2003b), Geostatistical analysis of ground-survey elevation data to elucidate spatial and temporal river channel change, Earth Sur. Processes Landforms, 28(4), 349-370.
10. Chilès, J. P., and P. Delfiner (1999), Geostatistics: Modeling Spatial Uncertainty, John Wiley, Chichester, U.K.
11. Coulibaly, P. (2006), Spatial and temporal variability of Canadian seasonal precipitation (1900-2000), Adv. Water Resour., 29(12), 1846-1865.
12. Dai, A., I. Y. Fung, and A. D. Del Genio (1997), Surface observed global land precipitation variations during 1900-88, J. Clim., 10, 2943-2962.
13. Dai, A., P. J. Lamb, K. E. Trenberth, M. Hulme, P. D. Jones, and P. Xie (2004), The recent Sahel drought is real, Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1323-1331.
14. Davy, E. G., F. Mattei, and S. I. Solomon (1976), An evaluation of the climate and water resources for development of agriculture in the Sudan-Sahelizn zone of West Africa, WMO Spec. Environ. Rep. 9, World Meteorol. Organ., Geneva, Switzerland.
15. Delfiner, P. (1976), Linear estimation of non stationary spatial phenomena, in Advanced Geostatistics in the Mining Industry, edited by M. Guarascio, M. David, and C. Huijbregts, pp. 49-68, D. Reidel, Dordrecht, Netherlands.
16. De Michele, C., and P. Bernardara (2005), Spectral analysis and modeling of space-time rainfall fields, Atmos. Res., 77(1-4), 124-136.
17. Deutsch, C. V. and A. G. Journel (1998), GSLIB Geostatistical Software Library and User's Guide, 340 pp., Oxford Univ. Press, New York.
18. Ekström, M., P. C. Kyriakidis, A. Chappell, and P. D. Jones (2007), Spatiotemporal stochastic simulation of monthly rainfall patterns in the United Kingdom (1980-1987), J. Clim., 20, 4194-4210.
19. Farmer, G. (1989), Rainfall, in The IUCN Sahel Studies, edited by M. Norton-Griffiths, pp. 1-25, Int. Union for Conserv. of Nature and Nat. Resour., Gland, Switzerland.
20. Folland, C. K., T. N. Palmer, and D. E. Parker (1986), Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901-85, Nature, 320, 602-606.
21. Giannini, A., R. Saravanan, and P. Chang (2003), Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales, Science, 302, 1027-1030.
22. Goovaerts, P. (1997), Geostatistics for Natural Resources Evaluation, Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, U.K.
23. Hulme, M., and M. New (1997), Dependence of large-scale precipitation climatologies on temporal and spatial sampling, J. Clim., 10, 1099-1113.
24. Isaaks, E. H. and R. M. Srivastava (1989), An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics, Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, U.K.
25. Jones, P. D., and M. Hulme (1996), Calculating regional climatic time series for temperature and precipitation: Methods and illustrations, Int. J. Climatol., 16, 361-377.
26. Journel, A. G. (1984), The place of non-parametric geostatistics, in Geostatistics for Natural Resources Characterization, vol. 1, edited by G. Verly et al, pp. 307-355, D. Reidel, Dordrecht, Netherlands.
27. Kendall, M. G. (1975), Rank Correlation Methods, Charles Griffin, London.
28. Kyiakidis, P. C., and A. Journel (1999), Geostatistical space-time models: A review, Math. Geol., 31, 651-684.
29. Kyiakidis, P. C., J. Kim, and N. L. Miller (2001), Mapping of precipitation from rain gauge data using atmospheric and terrain characteristics, J. Appl. Mateorol., 40, 1855-1877.
30. Kyiakidis, P. C., N. L. Miller, and J. Kim (2004), A spatial time series framework for simulating daily precipitation at regional scales, J. Hydrol., 288, 288-298.
31. Laslett, G. M. (1994), Kriging and splines: An empirical comparison of their predictive performance in some applications, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 89, 391-409.
32. Laslett, G. M., and A. B. McBratney (1990), Estimation and implications of instrumental drift, random measurement error and nugget variance of soil attributes-A case study for soil pH, J. Soil Sci., 41, 451-471.
33. Laslett, G. M., A. B. McBratney, P. J. Pahl, and M. F. Hutchinson (1987), Comparison of several spatial prediction methods for soil pH, J. Soil Sci., 38, 325-341.
34. Lopes, V. L. (1996), On the effect of uncertainty in spatial distribution of rainfall on catchment modelling, Catena, 28(1), 107-119.
35. Madden, R. A., D. J. Shea, G. W. Branstator, J. J. Tribbia, and R. O. Weber (1993), The effects of imperfect spatial and temporal sampling on estimates of the global mean temperature: experiments with model data, J. Clim., 6, 1057-1066.
36. Mann, H. B. (1945), Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 13, 245-259.
37. Matheron, M. A. (1971), The Theory of Regionalized Variables and Its Applications, Cahiers du Cent. de Morphol. Math. de Fountainebleau, vol. 5, Ecole Natl. Superieure des Mines, Paris.
38. New, M. G., D. Lister, M. Hulme, and I. Makin (2002), A high-resolution data set of surface climate for terrestrial land areas, Clim. Res., 21, 1-25.
39. Nicholson, S. E. (1985), Sub-Saharan rainfall 1981-1984, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 24, 1388-1391.
40. Nicholson, S. E. (1993), An overview of African rainfall fluctuations of the last decade, J. Clim., 6, 1463-1466.
41. Nicholson, S. E., and I. M. Palao (1993), A re-evaluation of rainfall variability in the Sahel, Int. J. Climatol., 13, 371-389.
42. Olea, R. A. (1975), Optimum Mapping Techniques Using Regionalized Variable Theory, Ser. on Spatial Anal., vol. 2, Kans. Geol. Surv., Lawrence.
43. Olea, R. A. (1977), Measuring Spatial Dependence with Semi-Variograms, Ser. on Spatial Anal., vol. 3, Kans. Geol. Surv., Lawrence.
44. Oliver, M. A., R. Webster, and J. Gerrard (1989a), Geostatistics in physical geography. Part I: Theory, Trans. Inst. Br. Geogr., 14, 259-269.
45. Oliver, M. A., R. Webster, and J. Gerrard (1989b), Geostatistics in physical geography. Part II: Applications, Trans. Inst. Br. Geogr., 14, 270-286.
46. Pardo-Igúzquiza, E., D. I. F. Grimes, and C.-K. Tee (2006), Assessing the uncertainty associated with intermittent rainfall fields, Water Resour. Res., 42, W01412, doi:10.1029/2004WR003740.
47. Peterson, T. C., and R. S. Vose (1997), An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network temperature data base, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.
48. Prospero, J. M., and P. J. Lamb (2003), African droughts and dust transport to the Caribbean: Climate change implications, Science, 302, 1024-1027.
49. Taylor, C. M., E. F. Lambin, N. Stephenne, R. J. Harding, and R. L. H. Essery (2002), The influence of land use change on climate in the Sahel, J. Clim., 15, 3615-3629.
50. Warren, A., and M. Khogali (1992), Assessment of desertification and drought in the Sudano-Sahelian region 1985-1991, Off. to Combat Desertification and Drought, U.N. Sudano-Sahelian Off., U.N. Dev. Programme, New York.
51. Webster, R., and M. A. Oliver (1990), Statistical Methods in Soil and Land Resource Survey, Oxford Univ. Press, New York.
52. Webster, R., and M. A. Oliver (1992), Sample adequately to estimate variograms of soil properties, J. Soil Sci., 43, 177-192.
53. Webster, R., and M. A. Oliver (2001), Geostatistics for Environmental Scientists, John Wiley, Chichester, U.K.
54. Willmott, C. J., and M. L. Johnson (2005), Resolution errors associated with gridded precipitation fields, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1957-1963.
55. Willmott, C. J., S. M. Robeson, and M. J. Janis (1996), Comparison of approaches for estimating time-averaged precipitation using data from the USA, Int. J. Climatol., 16, 1103-1115.
56. Zeng, N. (2003), Drought in the Sahel, Science, 302, 999-1000.
57. Zeng, N., J. D. Neelin, K.-M. Lau, and C. J. Tucker (1999), Enhancement of interdecadal climate variability in the Sahel by vegetation interaction, Science, 286, 1537-1540.