Predicting accrual in clinical trials with Bayesian posterior predictive distributions

Statistics in Medicine

Volumn 27, Issue 13, 2008, Pages 2328-2340

  Gajewski, Byron J ^a   Simon, Stephen D ^b   Carlson, Susan E ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS MEDICAL CENTER   (United States)

^b CHILDREN S MERCY HOSPITAL   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian; Exponential; Inverse gamma; Prior elicitation; Sample size

Indexed keywords

DOCOSAHEXAENOIC ACID; PLACEBO;

ALGORITHM; ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; CLINICAL RESEARCH; CLINICAL TRIAL; CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK; CONTROLLED CLINICAL TRIAL; CONTROLLED STUDY; DRUG EFFICACY; DRUG SAFETY; HUMAN; METHODOLOGY; PREDICTION; PROBABILITY; SAMPLE SIZE; SECOND TRIMESTER PREGNANCY; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; STATISTICAL MODEL; THIRD TRIMESTER PREGNANCY; UNCERTAINTY;

ALGORITHMS; BAYES THEOREM; CLINICAL TRIALS AS TOPIC; CLINICAL TRIALS, PHASE III AS TOPIC; DATA COLLECTION; DIETARY SUPPLEMENTS; DOCOSAHEXAENOIC ACIDS; FEMALE; HUMANS; MODELS, STATISTICAL; PATIENT SELECTION; PREGNANCY;

EID: 44949207586     PISSN: 02776715     EISSN: 10970258     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/sim.3128     Document Type: Article

References (13)

1. Barnes K. Pharma giants risk reputation through clinical trial cost-cutting. 2007. Available from: http://www.inpharmatechnologist.com/ news/ng.asp?n=68150-chiltern-india-cost-clinical-trial-regulatory (accessed on 21 March 2007).
2. O'Hagan A, Buck CE, Daneshkhah A, Eiser JR, Garthwaite PH, Jenkinson DJ, Oakley JE, Rakow T. Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities. Wiley: New York, 2006.
3. Garthwaite PH, Kadane JB, O'Hagan A. Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions. Journal of the American Statistical Association 2005; 100(470):680-701.
4. Spiegelhalter DJ, Abrams KR, Myles JP. Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-care Evaluation. Wiley: New York, 2004.
5. Tan SB, Machin D. Bayesian two-stage designs for phase II clinical trials. Statistics in Medicine 2002; 21: 1991-2012.
6. Mayo M, Gajewski BJ. Bayesian sample size calculations in phase II clinical trials using informative conjugate priors. Controlled Clinical Trials 2004; 25(2):157-167.
7. Gajewski BJ, Mayo MS. Bayesian sample size calculations in phase II clinical trials using a mixture of informative priors. Statistics in Medicine 2006; 25(15):2554-2566.
8. Johnson VA. A Bayesian chi-square test for goodness of fit. Annals of Statistics 2004; 32(6):306-317.
9. Gelman A, Carlin JB, Stern HS, Rubin DB. Bayesian Data Analysis. Chapman & Hall: New York, 2004.
10. Lindley DV. The future of statistics - a Bayesian 21st century. Supplement to Advances in Applied Probability 1975; 7:106-115.
11. Efron B. Why isn't everyone a Bayesian? The American Statistician 1986; 40(1):1-4.
12. Banerjee A, Tsiatis AB. Adaptive two-stage designs in phase II clinical trials. Statistics in Medicine 2006; 25(19):3382-3395.
13. Berry DA. Bayesian clinical trials. Nature Reviews 2006; 5:27-36.