Temperature extremes and wildfires in Siberia in the 21st century: The MGO regional climate model simulation

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

Volumn 33, Issue 3, 2008, Pages 135-142

  Shkol'nik, I M ^a   Mol'kentin, E K ^a   Nadezhina, E D ^a   Khlebnikova, E I ^a   Sall, I A ^a  

^a VOEIKOV MAIN GEOPHYSICAL OBSERVATORY   (Russian Federation)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC AEROSOLS; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; FIRES; GREENHOUSE GASES; IMAGE RESOLUTION; STATISTICAL METHODS;

REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL (RCM); SPACE-TIME RESOLUTION; WILDFIRE ANALYSIS;

GLOBAL WARMING;

ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; NUMERICAL MODEL; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SEASONAL VARIATION; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY; WILDFIRE;

EURASIA; SIBERIA;

EID: 44649186783     PISSN: 10683739     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3103/S1068373908030011     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Yu. A. Dovgalyuk, E. V. Orenburgskaya, and T. L. Uglanova, Characteristics of Resource Convective Clouds over the Forest Fire-Hazardous Areas of Asian RSFSR and Separate Arid Areas of European Russia (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1991) [in Russian].
2. K. L. Egorov, S. V. Marunich, E. K. Mol'kentin, et al., "Model Estimates of Thermal Conditions in a Forest Canopy," Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 10 (2003) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 10 (2003)].
3. V. M. Kattsov, S. V. Vavulin, V. A. Govorkova, and T. V. Pavlova, "Scenarios of the Arctic Climate Changes in the Twenty-First Century," Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 10 (2003) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 10 (2003)].
4. S. P. Malevskii-Malevich, E. K. Mol'kentin, E. D. Nadezhina, et al., "Analysis of Changes in Fire-Hazard Conditions in the Forests in Russia in the 20th and the 21st Centuries on the Basis of Climate Modeling," Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 3 (2007) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 3, 32 (2007)].
5. S. P. Malevskii-Malevich, E. K. Mol'kentin, E. D. Nadezhina, and O. B. Shklyarevich, "On Estimation of Forest Fire Condition Changes in Russia under the Expected Climate Warming in the 21st Century," Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 3 (2005) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 3 (2005)].
6. I. I. Mokhov, A. V. Chernokul'skii, and I. M. Shkol'nik, "Regional Model Estimates of Wildfires under Global Climate Changes," Dokl. Akad. Nauk, No. 6, 411 (2006) [Dokl. Phys., No. 6, 411 (2006)].
7. V. G. Nesterov, Forest Fire Hazard Conditions and Methods of its Determination (Goslesbumizdat, Moscow, 1949) [in Russian].
8. M. A. Sofronov, "Forest Fire Indices of Drought," in Forest and Forestry in West Siberia (Tyumen Gos. Univ., Tyumen, iss. 6, 1998).
9. I. M. Shkol'nik, V. P. Meleshko, and V. M. Gavrilina, "Validation of the Main Observatiry Regional Climate Model," Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 1 (2005) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 1 (2005)].
10. I. M. Shkol'nik, V. P. Meleshko, and V. M. Kattsov, "Possible Climate Changes in European Russia and Neighboring Countries by the Late 21st Century: Calculation with the MGO Regional Model," Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 3 (2006) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 3 (2006)].
11. I. M. Shkol'nik, V. P. Meleshko, and V. M. Kattsov, "The MGO Climate Model for Siberia," Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 6 (2007) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 6, 32 (2007)].
12. I. M. Shkol'nik, V. P. Meleshko, and T. V. Pavlova, "Regional Hydrodynamic Atmospheric Climate Model for Russia," Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 4 (2000) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 4 (2000)].
13. B. E. Shneyerov, V. P. Meleshko, A. P. Sokolov, et al., "The Global Model of General Circulation in the Atmosphere and the Upper Layer of the Ocean," Trudy GGO, No. 544 (1997) [Trans. Main Geophysical Observatory, No. 544 (1997)].
14. T. J. Brown and B. L. Hall, "Assessing Long-term Fire Danger Variability and Change from Climate Model Output," in Proc. AMS 4th Symp. on Fire and Forest Meteorology, November 2001.
15. S. Chambers and F. S. Chapin, "Fire Effects on Surface-Atmosphere Exchange in Alaskan Black Spruce Ecosystems: Implementations for Feedbacks to Regional Climate," J. Geophys. Res., 108 (2003).
16. T. L. Delworth, R. J. Stouffer, K. W. Dixon, et al., "Review of Simulation of Climate Variability and Change by the GFDL R30 Coupled Climate Model," Climate Dyn., No. 7, 19 (2002).
17. M. A. Fosberg, B. J. Stocks, and T. J. Lynham, "Risk Analysis in Strategic Planning: Fire and Climate Change in the Boreal Forest," in Fire in Ecosystems of Boreal Eurasia, Ed. by J. G. Goldammer and V. V. Furyaev (Kluwer Academic Publ., Netherlands, 1996).
18. H. B. Gordon and S. P. O'Farrell, "Transient Climate Change in the CSIRO Coupled Model with Dynamic Sea Ice," Mon. Wea. Rev., 125 (1997).
19. P. Y. A. Groisman, R. W. Knight, R. R. Haim, et al., "Contemporary Climate Changes in High Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere: Cause an Increasing Potential Forest Fire Danger," in Proc. 5th AMS Symp. on Fire and Forest Meteorology Joint with 2nd Int. Wild Land Ecology and Fire Management Congress, November 2003, Ontario, Florida.
20. IPCC 2000. The SRES Scenarios, Available at http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk.
21. IPCC 2001. Climate Change: The Scientific Basis, Ed. by J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, et al. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001).
22. M. D. Li, C. Flannigan, and L. G. W. Corns, "Influence of Potential Climate Change on Forest Landscape Dynamics of West-central Alberta," Can. J. Forest. Res., 30 (2000).
23. A. Shvidenko and J. G. Goldammer, "Fire Situation in the Russian Federation," in Global Forest Fire Assessment 1990-2000. FAO Corporate Document Repositury, 2001, http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/ ad653e/ad653t77.htm.
24. B. J. Stocks, M. A. Fosberg, T. J. Lynham, et al., "Climate Change and Forest Fire Potential in Russian and Canadian Boreal Forests," Climatic Change, No. 1, 38 (1998).
25. B. J. Stocks, "Forest Fires in the Boreal Zone: Climate Change and Carbon Implications," IFFN, 31 (2004).