Temperature and rainfall anomalies in Africa predict timing of spring migration in trans-Saharan migratory birds

Climate Research

Volumn 35, Issue 1-2, 2007, Pages 123-134

  Saino, Nicola ^a   Rubolini, Diego ^a   Jonzén, Niclas ^b   Ergon, Torbjørn ^c   Montemaggiori, Alessandro ^d   Stenseth, Nils Chr ^c   Spina, Fernando ^e  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MILAN   (Italy)

^b LUND UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^c UNIVERSITY OF OSLO   (Norway)

^d Istituto di Ecologia Applicata   (Italy)

^e Istituto Nazionale per la Fauna Selvatica   (Italy)

Author keywords

Arrival date; Long distance migration; Mediterranean; Sahel; Weather

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; BIRDS; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOLOGY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; RAIN;

ANNUAL VARIATION; ARRIVAL DATE; BIRD; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; MIGRATORY SPECIES; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE; PHENOLOGY; RAINFALL; TEMPERATURE ANOMALY;

AFRICA; MEDITERRANEAN REGION; MEDITERRANEAN SEA; SAHEL [SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA]; SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA;

AVES;

EID: 44249124576     PISSN: 0936577X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/cr00719     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Ahola M, Laaksonen T, Sippola K, Eeva T, Rainio K, Lehikoinen E (2004) Variation in climate warming along the migration route uncouples arrival and breeding dates. Glob Change Biol 10:1610-1617
2. Baillie SR, Peach WJ (1992) Population limitation in Palaearctic-African migrant passerines. Ibis 134(Suppl): 120-132
3. Both C (2007) Comment on 'Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds'. Science 315: 598b
4. Both C, Visser ME (2001) Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long-distance migrant bird. Nature 411:296-298
5. Both C, Artemyev AV, Blaauw B, Cowie RJ and others (2004) Large-scale geographical variation confirms that climate change causes birds to lay earlier. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 271:1657-1662
6. Both C, Bijlsma. RG, Visser ME (2005) Climatic effects on timing of spring migration and breeding in a long-distance migrant, the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca. J Avian Biol 36:368-373
7. Cotton PA (2003) Avian migration phenology and global climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 100:12219-12222
8. Cramp S (1998) The complete birds of the western Palearctic on CD-ROM. Oxford University Press
9. Croxton PJ, Sparks TH, Cade M, Loxton RG (2006) Trends and temperature effects in the arrival of spring migrants in Portland (United Kingdom) 1959-2005. Acta. Ornithol 41: 103-111
10. Forchhammer MC, Post E, Stenseth NC (2002) North Atlantic Oscillation timing of long- and short-distance migration. J Anim Ecol 71:1002-1014
11. Gelman A (1996) Inference and monitoring convergence, In: Gilks WR, Richardson S, Spiegelhalter DJ (eds) Markov chain Monte Carlo in practice. Chapman & Hall, London, p 131-143
12. Gelman A, Carlin JB, Stern HS, Rubin DB (1995) Bayesian data analysis. Chapman & Hall, London
13. Gienapp P, Leimu R, Merild J (2007) Responses to climate change in avian migration time - microevolution versus phenotypic plasticity. Clim Res 35:25-35
14. Gordo O (2007) Why are bird migration dates shifting? A review of weather and climate effects on avian migratory phenology. Clim. Res 35:37-58
15. Gordo O, Sanz JJ (2005) Phenology and climate change: a long-term study in a Mediterranean locality. Oecologia 146:484-495
16. Gordo O, Sanz JJ (2006) Climate change and bird phenology: a long-term study in the Iberian Peninsula. Glob Change Biol 12:1993-2004
17. Gordo O, Brotons L, Ferrer X, Comas P (2005) Do changes in climate patterns in wintering areas affect the timing of the spring arrival of trans-Saharan migrant birds? Glob Change Biol 11:12-21
18. Holmgren NMA, Engström H (2006) Stopover behaviour of spring migrating Wood Warblers Phylloscopus sibilatrix on the Island of Capri, Italy. Ornis Svec 16:34-41
19. Huin N, Sparks TH (1998) Arrival and progression of swallows Hirundo rustica through Britain. Bird Study 45: 361-370
20. Huin N, Sparks TH (2000) Spring arrival patterns of the cuckoo Cuculus canorus, nightingale Luscinia megarhynchos and spotted flycatcher Musciapa striata in Britain. Bird Study 47:22-31
21. Hüppop O, Hüppop K (2003) North Atlantic Oscillation and timing of spring migration in birds. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 270:233-240
22. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press
23. Janowiak JE (1988) An investigation of interannual rainfall variability in Africa. J Clim 1:240-255
24. Jonzén N, Lindén A, Ergon T, Knudsen E and others (2006a) Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds. Science 312:1959-1961
25. Jonzén N, Piacentini D, Andersson A, Montemaggiori A and others (2006b) The timing of spring migration in trans-Saharan migrants: a comparison between Ottenby, Sweden, and the island of Capri, Italy. Ornis Svec 16:27-33
26. Jonzén N, Lindén A, Ergon T, Knudsen E and others (2007) Response to comment on 'Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds'. Science 315:598c
27. Lehikoinen E, Sparks TH, Zalakevicius M (2004) Arrival and departure dates. Adv Ecol Res 35:1-31
28. Loxton RG, Sparks TH (1999) Arrival of spring migrants at Portland, Skokholm, Bardsey and Calf of Man. Bardsey Obs Rep 42:105-143
29. Loxton RG, Sparks TH, Newnham JA (1998) Spring arrival dates of migrants in Sussex and Leicestershire (1966-1996). Sussex Bird Rep 50:182-196
30. Mason CF (1995) Long term trends in the arrival dates of spring migrants. Bird Study 42:182-189
31. Menzel A, Sparks TH, Estrella N, Koch E and others (2006) European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Glob Change Biol 12:1969-1976
32. Møller AP (1989) Population dynamics of a declining swallow Hirundo rustica L. population. J Anim Ecol 58:1051-1063
33. Møller AP, Merilä J (2004) Analysis arid interpretation of long-term studies investigating responses to climate change. Adv Ecol Res 35:110-130
34. Møller AP, Fiedler W, Berthold P (2004) Advances in ecological research: birds and climate change. Elsevier Academic Press, Oxford
35. Moreau RE (1972) The Palaearctic -African bird migration systems. Academic Press, London
36. Morel GJ (1973) The Sahel zone as an environment for Palaearctic migrants. Ibis 115:413-417
37. Morel GJ, Morel MY (1992) Habitat use by Palaearctic migrants in West Africa. Ibis 134(Suppl):83-88
38. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37-42
39. Peach W, Baillie S, Underhill L (1991) Survival of British sedge warblers Acrocephalus schoenobaenus in relation to West African rainfall. Ibis 133:300-305
40. Peintinger M, Schuster S (2005) Veränderungen der Erstank≻nfte bei häufigen Zugvogelarten in Südwestdeutsch-land. Vogelwarte 43:161-169
41. Peñuelas J, Filella I, Comas P (2002) Changed plant and animal life cycles from 1952 to 2000 in the Mediterranean region. Glob Change Biol 8:531-544
42. Philippon N, Mougin E, Jarlan L, Frison PL (2005) Analysis of the linkages between rainfall and land surface conditions in the West African monsoon through CMAP, ERS-WSC, and NOAA-AVHRR data. J Geophys Res 110: D24115
43. Pilastro A, Spina F (1997) Ecological and morphological correlates of residual fat reserves in passerine migrants at their spring arrival in southern Europe. J Avian Biol 28:309-318
44. Przybylo R, Sheldon BC, Merilä J (2000) Climatic effects on breeding and morphology: evidence for climatic plasticity. J Anim Ecol 69:395-403
45. Pulido F (2007) Phenotypic changes in spring arrival: evolution, phenotypic plasticity, effects of weather and condition. Clim Res 35:5-23
46. Pulido F, Berthold P (2004) Microevolutionary response to climate change. Adv Ecol Res 35:151-183
47. Robinson RA, Learmonth JA, Hutson AM, Macleod CD and others (2005) Climate change and migratory species. BTO Research Report No. 414, Defra, London
48. Rodríguez-Teijeiro JD, Gordo O, Puigcerver M, Gallego S, Vinyoles D, Ferrer X (2005) African climate warming advances spring arrival of the common quail Coturnix coturnix. Ardeola. 52:159-162
49. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57-60
50. Rosenthal R (1991) Meta-analytic procedures for social research. Sage Publications, London
51. Rubolini D, Spina F, Saino N (2005) Correlates of timing of spring migration in birds: a comparative study of trans-Saharan migrants. Biol J Linn Soc 85:199-210
52. Rubolini D, Møller AP, Rainio K, Lehikoinen E (2007a) Intraspecific consistency and geographic variability in temporal trends of spring migration phenology among European bird species. Clim Res 35:135-146
53. Rubolini D, Ambrosini R, Caffi M, Brichetti P, Armiraglio S, Saino N (2007b) Long-term trends in first arrival and first egg laying dates of some migrant and resident bird species in northern Italy. Int J Biometeorol 51:553-563
54. Saino N, Ambrosini R (2007) Climatic connectivity between Africa and Europe may serve as a basis for phenotypic adjustment of migration schedules of trans-Saharan migratory birds. Glob Change Biol (in press), doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01488.x
55. Saino N, Szép T, Romano M, Rubolini D, Møller AP (2004) Ecological conditions during winter predict arrival date at the breeding grounds in a trans-Saharan migratory bird. Ecol Lett 7:21-25
56. Schlichting CD, Pigliucci M (1998) Phenotypic evolution: a reaction norm perspective. Sinauer, Sunderland
57. Schwartz MD, Ahas R, Aasa A (2006) Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere. Glob Change Biol 12:343-351
58. Schwilch R, Mantovani R, Spina F, Jenni L (2001) Nectar consumption of warblers after long-distance flights during spring migration. Ibis 143:24-32
59. Sokolov LV, Markovets MY, Shapoval AP, Morozov YG (1998) Long-term trends in the timing of spring migration of passerines on the Courish Spit of the Baltic Sea. Avian Ecol Behav 1:1-21
60. Sparks TH, Mason CF (2001) Dates of arrivals and departures of spring migrants taken from Essex Bird Reports 1950-1998. Essex Bird Rep 1999:154-164
61. Sparks TH, Tryjanowski P (2007) Patterns of spring arrival dates differ in two hirundines. Clim Res 35:159-164
62. Sparks TH, Roberts DR, Crick HQP (2001) What is the value of first arrival dates of spring migrants in phenology? Avian Ecol Behav 7:75-85
63. Sparks TH, Bairlein F, Bojarinova JG, Hüppop H and others (2005) Examining the total arrival distribution of migratory birds. Glob Change Biol 11:22-30
64. Spiegelhalter D, Thomas A, Best N, Lunn D (2003) WinBUGS user manual, Version 1.4. Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge
65. Spina F, Massi A, Montemaggiori A, Baccetti N (1993) Spring migration across central Mediterranean: general results from the 'Progetto Piccole Isole'. Vogelwarte 37(Suppl): 1-94
66. Spina F, Piacentini D, Montemaggiori A (2006) Bird migration across the Mediterranean: Capri within the Progetto Piccole Isole. Ornis Svec 16:20-26
67. Stoate C, Moreby SJ (1995) Premigratory diet of trans-Saharan migrant passerines in the western Sahel. Bird Study 42:101-106
68. Szép T (1995) Relationship between West African rainfall and the survival of central European sand martins Riparia riparia. Ibis 137:162-168
69. Tryjanowski P, Kuzniak S, Sparks TH (2002) Earlier arrival of some farmland migrants in western Poland. Ibis 144:62-68
70. Visbeck MH, Hurrel JW, Polvani L, Cullen HM (2001) The North Atlantic Oscillation: past, present and future. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 98:12876-12877
71. Wellens J (1997) Rangeland vegetation dynamics and moisture availability in Tunisia: an investigation using satellite and meteorological data. J Biogeogr 24:845-855
72. Zalakevicius M, Bartkeviciene G, Raudonikis L, Janulaitis J (2006) Spring arrival response to climate change in birds: a case study from eastern Europe. J Ornithol 147:326-343