Modeling and forecasting the U.S. manufacturing aggregate energy intensity

International Journal of Energy Research

Volumn 32, Issue 6, 2008, Pages 501-513

  Al Ghandoor, A ^a   Phelan, P E ^b   Villalobos, R ^b   Phelan, B E ^c  

^a HASHEMITE UNIVERSITY   (Jordan)

^b Arizona State University   (United States)

^c The Phelan Consulting Group   (United States)

Author keywords

Aggregate energy intensity; Decomposition analysis; Double exponential smoothing; Efficiency effect; Forecasting; Regression analysis; Structural effect

Indexed keywords

DOMAIN DECOMPOSITION METHODS; FUELS; INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS; REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS; DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING; ENERGY INTENSITY;

ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING;

DOMAIN DECOMPOSITION METHODS; ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING; FUELS; INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS; REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

EID: 44149095773     PISSN: 0363907X     EISSN: 1099114X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/er.1359     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. Al-Shehri A. A simple forecasting model for industrial electric energy consumption. International Journal of Energy Research 2000; 24(8):719-726.
2. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Model Documentation Report: Industrial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System. EIA, 2000. Retrieved on 15 May 2004 from http:/ /tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m064%282001%29.pdf.
3. Flores CE, Phelan PE, Mou JI, Bryan H. Forecasting the electricity consumption of the Mexican border states maquiladoras. International Journal of Energy Research 2004; 28(7):641-660.
4. Galli R. The relationship between energy intensity and income levels: forecasting long term energy demand in Asian emerging countries. The Energy Journal 1998; 19(4):85-105.
5. Dincer I, Dost S. Energy intensities for Canada. Applied Energy 1996; 53(3):283-298.
6. Ghaddar N, Mezher T. Modeling of current and future energy intensity and greenhouse gas emissions of the Lebanese industrial sector: assessment of mitigation options. Applied Energy 1999; 63(1):53-74.
7. Ang BW, Zhang FQ. Survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environment studies. Energy 2000; 25(12):1149-1176.
8. Al-Ghandoor A, Phelan PE, Villalobos R, Phelan BE. U.S. manufacturing aggregate energy intensity decomposition: the application of multivariate regression analysis. International Journal of Energy Research 2007: DOI: 10.1002/er.1334.
9. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey: 1998 Offsite Produced Fuel Consumption. EIA, 2001. Retrieved on 15 February 2004 from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ mecs/mecs98/datatables/d98n4_2.pdf.
10. Claycombe W, Sullivan W. Fundamental of Forecasting. Reston Publishing: Reston, VA, 1977.
11. Makridakis S, Wheelwright SC, McGee VE. Forecasting: Methods and Applications. Wiley: New York, 1983.
12. Manufacturing Energy consumption Survey (MECS). Derived Annual Estimates of Manufacturing Energy Consumption, 1974-1988. MECs, 1998. Retrieved on 15 April 2004 from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs/mecs94/ consumption/delecl.html.
13. Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS). Derived Annual Estimates of Manufacturing Energy Consumption, 1988-1998. MECs, 1998. Retrieved on 15 April 2004 from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs/mecs94/ consumption/delec.html.
14. U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. 1977 Census of Manufactures. U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC, 1981.
15. U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. 1978-1979 and 1980-1981 Annual Survey of Manufactures: Statistics for Industry Groups and Industries. U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC, 1983, 1984.
16. U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. M83(AS)-1, M84(AS)-1, M85(AS)-1, M86(AS)-1, M88(AS)-1, M89(AS)-1, M91(AS)-1, M93(AS)-1, M94(AS)-1, M95(AS)-1, M96(AS)-1, and M98(AS)-1. 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1998 Annual Survey of Manufactures: Statistics for Industry Groups and Industries. U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000.
17. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Retail Prices of Electricity Sold by Electric Utilities, 1960-2000. EIA, 2001. Retrieved on 15 January 2004 from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/tab0815.htm.
18. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Natural Gas Prices by Sector, 1967-2000. EIA, 2001. Retrieved on 15 January 2004 from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/tab0609.htm.
19. U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Shipments of Manufacturing Industries. U.S. Department of Commerce, 2004. Retrieved on 20 March 2004 from http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn2/gpo.htm.
20. Federal Reserve Statistical Release. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. 2004. Retrieved on 15 July 2004 from http:// www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/G17/cautl.htm.
21. Montgomery DC, Peck EA, Vining CG. Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis (3rd edn). Wiley: New York, 2001.
22. Ang BW. Decomposition of industrial energy consumption: the energy intensity approach. Energy Economics 1994; 16(3):163-174.