Get on television vs. get on the van: GOTV and the ground war in 2002

The last hurrah?: Soft money and issue advocacy in the 2002 congressional elections

Volumn , Issue , 2004, Pages 90-116

  Monson, J Quin ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 43249200687     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: None     Document Type: Chapter

References (67)

1. This use of the term ground war is consistent with David B. Magleby, "Outside Money and the Ground War in 1998," in David B. Magleby, ed., Outside Money: Soft Money and Issue Advocacy in the 1998 Congressional Elections (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 2000).
2. Darrell M. West, Air Wars: Television Advertising in Election Campaigns, 1952-2000, 3d ed. (Congressional Quarterly, 2001).
3. Paul S. Herrnson, "Parties and Interest Groups in Postreform Congressional Elections," in Allan J. Cigler and Burdett A. Loomis, eds., Interest Group Politics, 5th ed. (Congressional Quarterly, 1998)
4. Robin Gerber, "Building to Win, Building to Last: The AFL-CIO COPE Takes on the Republican Congress," in Robert Biersack, Paul S. Herrnson, and Clyde Wilcox, eds., After the Revolution: PACs and Lobbies in the Republican Congress (Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1998).
5. Magleby, Outside Money, p. 4.
6. Adam Nagourney, "TV's Tight Grip on Campaigns Is Weakening," New York Times, September 5, 2002, p. A1.
7. Magleby, Outside Money
8. David B. Magleby, ed., The Other Campaign: Soft Money and Issue Advocacy in the 2000 Congressional Elections (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 2003).
9. Daniel M. Shea and Michael John Burton, Campaign Craft: The Strategies, Tactics, and Art of Political Campaign Management (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 2001), p. 184.
10. Steven J. Rosenstone and John Mark Hansen, Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America (Macmillan, 1993).
11. Kenneth M. Goldstein and Travis N. Ridout, "The Politics of Participation: Mobilization and Turnout over Time," Political Behavior, Vol. 24 (March 2002), pp. 3-29
12. Michael T. Hannahan, "Campaign Strategy and Direct Voter Contact," in Paul S. Herrnson, ed., Playing Hardball: Campaigning for the U.S. Congress (Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 2001)
13. Jan E. Leighley, Strength in Numbers? The Political Mobilization of Racial and Ethnic Minorities (Princeton University Press, 2001)
14. David Niven, "The Limits of Mobilization: Turnout Evidence from State House Primaries," Political Behavior, Vol. 23 (December 2001), pp. 335-50
15. David Niven, "The Mobilization Calendar: The Time-Dependent Effects of Personal Contact on Turnout," American Politics Research, Vol. 30 (May 2002), pp. 307-22
16. Peter W. Wielhouwer, "The Mobilization of Campaign Activists by the Party Canvass," American Politics Quarterly, Vol. 27 (April 1999), pp. 177-200
17. Peter W. Wielhouwer, "Releasing the Fetters: Parties and the Mobilization of the African-American Electorate," Journal of Politics, Vol. 62 (February 2000), pp. 206-22
18. Peter W. Wielhouwer and Brad Lockerbie, "Party Contacting and Political Participation, 1952-90," American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 38 (February 1994), pp. 211-29.
19. Alan S. Gerber and Donald P. Green, "The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment," American Political Science Review, Vol. 94 (September 2000), pp. 653-63
20. Alan S. Gerber and Donald P. Green, "Do Phone Calls Increase Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment," Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 65 (2001), pp. 75-85.
21. Magleby, "Outside Money."
22. In Missouri in 2002 the candidates spent about $20 million, the parties $5.7 million, and the interest groups $1.2 million. In 2000 the candidates spent $18 million and the parties at least $10 million, while the interest groups levels are difficult to estimate because of the presidential race. See chapter 6 of this volume." See also Martha E. Kropf and others, "The 2000 Missouri Senate Race," in David B. Magleby, ed., Election Advocacy: Soft Money and Issue Advocacy in the 2000 Congressional Elections (Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, Brigham Young University, 2001).
23. Sandra Anglund and Clyde McKee, "Connecticut Fifth District," in David B. Magleby, ed. Outside Money: Soft Money and Issue Ads in Competitive 1998 Congressional Elections, monograph version, Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, Brigham Young University, 1999
24. Sandra Anglund and Joanne Miller, "The 2000 Connecticut Fifth Congressional District Race," in Magleby, Election Advocacy.
25. Michael J. Malbin and others, "New Interest Group Strategies - A Preview of Post McCain-Feingold Politics?" (www.cfinst.org/studies/pdf/int- groups-CFIpaper.pdf [May 15, 2003]).
26. James Dyke, press secretary, RNC, telephone interview by Quin Monson, January 23, 2003.
27. Kenneth B. Mehlman, deputy assistant to the president and director of political affairs, White House, interview by David Magleby and Jonathan Tanner, Washington, D.C., November 15, 2002.
28. Republican National Committee, "72 Hour Task Force," preelection 2002 version, PowerPoint presentation, obtained from James Dyke, RNC press secretary, January 23, 2003.
29. RNC, "72 Hour Task Force," preelection 2002 version
30. See also Stuart Rothenberg, "Will State Parties Buy What RNC Is Selling on GOTV Efforts?" Roll Call, June 24, 2002 (www.rollcall.com/pages/ columns/rothenberg/00/2002/roth0624.html [December 20, 2002]).
31. These findings are also generally supported in academic research. See Gerber and Green, "The Effects of Canvassing."
32. Dennis Whitfield, senior vice president, NFIB, interview by David Magleby and Quin Monson, Washington, D.C., November 8, 2002.
33. National Federation of Independent Business, "NFIB, A Case Study: VA-4 Special Election," obtained from Dennis Whitfield, November 8, 2002.
34. Chuck Cunningham, federal affairs director, NRA Institute for Legislative Action, interview by David Magleby, Quin Monson, Jonathan Tanner, and Nicole Carlisle Squires, November 7, 2002.
35. Greg Casey, president, and Darrell Shull, political operations vice president, BIPAC, interview by Quin Monson and Jonathan Tanner, Washington, D.C., November 11, 2002.
36. For a review of the literature on interest group learning with some examples from recent elections, see Malbin and others, "New Interest Group Strategies."
37. Fredrick C. Harris, Something Within: Religion in African-American Political Activism (Oxford University Press, 1999).
38. Gail Stoltz, "Mobilizing Voters: The Coordinated Campaign," in Anthony Corrado, Thomas E. Mann, and Trevor Potter, eds., Inside the Campaign Finance Battle: Court Testimony on the New Reforms (Brookings, 2003), p. 122.
39. Laurie Moskowitz, principal, FieldWorks, interview by David Magleby, Quin Monson, and Jennifer Jensen, Washington, D.C., February 21, 2002
40. Andy Grossman, political director, and Mike Gehrke, research director, DSCC, interview by David Magleby, Quin Monson, and Jonathan Tanner, Washington, D.C., November 8, 2002.
41. Jay Barth and Janine Parry, "Provincialism, Personalism, and Politics: Campaign Spending and the 2002 U.S. Senate Race in Arkansas," in David B. Magleby and J. Quin Monson, eds., "The Noncandidate Campaign," PS: Political Science online e-symposium, July 2003 (www.apsanet.org/PS/july03/barth.pdf [July 30, 2003]).
42. David Redlawsk and Arthur Sanders, "The 2002 Iowa House and Senate Elections: The More Things Change⋯," in Magleby and Monson, "The Noncandidate Campaign."
43. "The 2002 Union Vote," survey by Peter D. Hart Research for the AFLCIO among 1,020 voting union members, November 5, 2002, AFL-CIO, November 6, 2002 (www.afl-cio.org/mediacenter/prsptm/upload/show6843final-1.ppt [November 20, 2002]).
44. Mike Lux, president, Progressive Strategies, telephone interview by David Magleby and Jonathan Tanner, January 9, 2003.
45. Steve Rosenthal, political director, AFL-CIO, press event
46. "The Last Hurrah? Soft Money and Issue Advocacy in the 2002 Elections," Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, National Press Club, Washington, D.C., February 3, 2003.
47. In 2002 we found "lost timers" in the First and Second Congressional District races of New Mexico as well as in the Maryland Eighth Congressional District race. See Lonna Atkeson, "The New Mexico 1st and 2nd Congressional District Races," in Magleby and Monson, monograph version, The Last Hurrah?
48. See also Owen Abbe, "The Maryland 8th Congressional District Race," in Magleby and Monson, monograph version, The Last Hurrah?
49. Jack Polidori, political affairs specialist, NEA, interview by David Magleby and Jonathan Tanner, Washington, D.C., November 15, 2002.
50. Geoff Garin, Garin-Hart-Yang Research, presentation at AFL-CIO postelection briefing, November 6, 2002, videotape (C-SPAN, tape 173707).
51. Stanley Greenberg, "RE: 2002 Vote by Demographic Groups," memorandum to interested parties, November 12, 2002 (www.greenbergresearch.com/ publications/reports/02Vote.pdf [May 19, 2003]), p. 5.
52. Linda Lipsen, senior director of public affairs, Association of Trial Lawyers of America, interview by David Magleby and Jonathan Tanner, Washington, D.C., December 19, 2002.
53. Sheila O'Connell, political director, EMILY's List, interview by Quin Monson and Jonathan Tanner, Washington, D.C., December 11, 2002.
54. Stanley Greenberg, "RE: 2002 Vote by Demographic Groups," p. 2; Voter News Service General Election Exit Poll 2002.
55. Curt Anderson, The Anderson Group, press event
56. "The Last Hurrah? Soft Money and Issue Advocacy in the 2002 Elections," Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, National Press Club, Washington, D.C., February 3, 2003.
57. RNC, "72 Hour Task Force," preelection 2002 version.
58. Susan Crabtree, "DeLay Steps Up Call for Volunteers," Roll Call, October 17, 2002, p. 3.
59. RNC, "72 Hour Task Force," postelection 2003 version.
60. Glen Caroline, Grassroots Division director, NRA Institute for Legislative Action, interview by David Magleby, Quin Monson, Jonathan Tanner, Nicole Carlisle Squires, and Stephanie Curtis, Washington, D.C., November 14, 2002.
61. See also Glen Caroline, "Maximizing Campaign Volunteers: The NRA Way," Campaigns & Elections, Vol. 24 (April 2003), pp. 26-29.
62. Bill Miller, political director, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, interview by David Magleby and Quin Monson, Washington, D.C., November 7, 2002.
63. Bernadette Budde, senior vice president, BIPAC, interview by Quin Monson, Jonathan Tanner, and Nicole Carlisle Squires, Washington, D.C., November 6, 2002.
64. Edward Walsh, "Election Turnout Rose Slightly, to 39.3%; GOP Mobilization Credited; Participation Was Down in Some Democratic Areas," Washington Post, November 8, 2002, p. A10
65. Todd S. Purdam and David E. Rosenbaum, "The 2002 Elections: The Campaign; Bush's Stumping for Candidates Is Seen as a Critical Factor in Republican Victories," New York Times, November 7, 2002, p. B1.
66. RNC, "72 Hour Task Force," postelection 2003 version.
67. Brody Mullins, "Business Changes Course: Turnout Becomes Focus," Roll Call, July 9, 2003, p. 1.