US presidential election forecasting: An introduction

International Journal of Forecasting

Volumn 24, Issue 2, 2008, Pages 189-192

  Campbell, James E ^a   Lewis Beck, Michael S ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF IOWA   (United States)

Author keywords

Approval ratings; Elections; Forecast accuracy; Forecasting; Preference polls; Presidents; Retrospective voting

Indexed keywords

EID: 43049108371     PISSN: 01692070     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.02.003     Document Type: Article

References (16)

1. Abramowitz A. An Improved Model for Presidential Outcomes. Political Science and Politics 21 (1988) 843-847
2. Brody R., and Sigelman L. Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections: An Update and Extension. Public Opinion Quarterly 47 (1983) 325-328
3. In: Campbell J.E., and Garand J.C. (Eds). Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections (2000), Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA
4. Campbell J.E., and Wink K.A. Trial-Heat Forecasts of the Presidential Vote. American Politics Quarterly 18 (1990) 251-269
5. Cuzán A.G., and Bundrick C.M. Fiscal Policy as a Forecasting Factor in Presidential Elections. American Politics Quarterly 29 3 (1999) 338-353
6. Fair R.C. The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President. Review of Economics and Statistics 60 (1978) 159-172
7. Forsythe R., Nelson F.D., Neumann G.R., and Wright J. Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market. American Economic Review 82 (1992) 1142-1161
8. Jones Jr. R.J. Who Will Be in the White House? Predicting Presidential Elections (2002), Longman, New York
9. Keilis-Borok V.I., and Lichtman A.J. Pattern Recognition Applied to Presidential Elections in the United States, 1890-1980: The Role of Integral Social, Economic, and Political Traits. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 78 (1981) 7230-7234
10. Lewis-Beck M.S. Election Forecasts in 1984: How Accurate Were They?. Political Science and Politics 18 (1985) 53-62
11. Lewis-Beck M.S., and Rice T.W. Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote. Public Opinion Quarterly 46 (1982) 534-537
12. Lewis-Beck M.S., and Rice T.W. Forecasting Presidential Elections: A Comparison of Naïve Models. Political Behavior 6 (1984) 9-21
13. Lewis-Beck M.S., and Rice T.W. Forecasting Elections (1992), Congressional Quarterly Press, Washington, D.C.
14. Rosenstone S.J. Forecasting Presidential Elections (1983), Yale University Press, New Haven, CT
15. Sigelman L. Presidential Popularity and Presidential Elections. Public Opinion Quarterly 43 (1979) 532-534
16. Sigelman L., Batchelor R., and Stekler H. Political Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 15 (1999) 125-126