Methodology for estimating the variance and confidence intervals for the estimate of the product of baseline models and AMFs

Accident Analysis and Prevention

Volumn 40, Issue 3, 2008, Pages 1013-1017

  Lord, Dominique ^a  

^a Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering   (United States)

Author keywords

Baseline models; Confidence intervals; Crash prediction models; Highway Safety Manual; Variance estimation

Indexed keywords

ACCIDENT PREVENTION; HIGHWAY TRAFFIC CONTROL; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PARAMETER ESTIMATION;

BASELINE MODELS; CONFIDENCE INTERVALS; CRASH PREDICTION MODELS; HIGHWAY SAFETY MANUAL; VARIANCE ESTIMATION;

ACCIDENTS;

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE; ARTICLE; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; HUMAN; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; SAFETY; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICS; TRAFFIC ACCIDENT; UNITED STATES;

ACCIDENTS, TRAFFIC; ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE; CONFIDENCE INTERVALS; HUMANS; MODELS, STATISTICAL; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; SAFETY; UNITED STATES;

EID: 42749097449     PISSN: 00014575     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2007.11.008     Document Type: Article

References (17)

1. Agrawal R., and Lord D. Effects of sample size on the goodness-of-fit statistic and confidence intervals of crash prediction models subjected to low sample mean values. Transport. Res. Rec. 1950 (2006) 35-43
2. Ang A.H.-S., and Tang W.H. Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design: Basic Principles, vol. 1 (1975), John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY
3. Bahar, G., Parkhill, M., Hauer, E., Council, F.M., Persaud, B., Zegger, C., Elvik, R., Smiley, A., Scotty, B., 2007. Prepare Parts I and II of the Highway Safety Manual. Final Report for NCHRP Project 17-27. iTRANS Consulting, Richmond Hill, Ont. (Note: Future Parts I and II of the HSM).
4. Browne J.M. Probabilistic Design. Class Notes (2000), School of Engineering and Science Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn, Australia. http://www.ses.swin.edu.au/homes/browne/probabilisticdesign/coursenotes/notespdf/4ProbabilisticDesign.pdf
5. Cameron A.C., and Trivedi P.K. Regression Analysis of Count Data (1998), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
6. Geedipally S.R., and Lord D. Effects of the varying dispersion parameter of Poisson-gamma models on the estimation of confidence intervals of crash prediction models. Paper Presented at the 87th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. Washington, DC (2008)
7. Hughes, W., Eccles, K., Harwood, D., Potts, I., Hauer, E., 2005. Development of a Highway Safety Manual. Appendix C: Highway Safety Manual Prototype Chapter: Two-Lane Highways. NCHRP Web Document 62 (Project 17-18(4)). Washington, DC (http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/nchrp_w62.pdf accessed October 2007).
8. Kononov J., and Allery B.K. Explicit consideration of safety in transportation planning and project scoping. Transport. Res. Rec. 1897 (2004) 116-125
9. Lord, D., 2000. The Prediction of Accidents on Digital Networks: Characteristics and Issues Related to the Application of Accident Prediction Models. Ph.D. Dissertation. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario.
10. Miaou S.-P., and Lord D. Modeling traffic-flow relationships at signalized intersections: dispersion parameter. functional form and Bayes vs. empirical Bayes. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840 (2003) 31-40
11. Miranda-Moreno L.F., and Fu L. Traffic Safety Study: Empirical Bayes or Full Bayes?. Paper 07-1680 Presented at the 86th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. Washington, DC (2007)
12. Miranda-Moreno L.F., Fu L., Saccomanno F.F., and Labbe A. Alternative risk models for ranking locations for safety improvement. Transport. Res. Rec. 1908 (2005) 1-8
13. Mitra S., and Washington S. On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models. Accident Anal. Prevention 39 3 (2007) 459-568
14. Myers R.H., Montgomery D.C., and Vining G.G. Generalized Linear Models: with Applications in Engineering and the Sciences (2002), Wiley Publishing Co., New York, NY
15. In: Payne R.W. (Ed). The Guide to Genstat. Lawes Agricultural Trust (2000), Rothamsted Experimental Station, Oxford, UK
16. TRB. Highway Capacity Manual 2000 (2000), Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC
17. Wood G.R. Confidence and prediction intervals for generalized linear accident models. Accident Anal. Prevention 37 2 (2005) 267-273